Ausgenius Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 I am new to this website, but have recently developed a system to pick the over/under 2.5 goals for the Australian football competition (a-league). Basically, as all of the games in the a-league are on at different time due to television, it is possible to bet against a run of over/under 2.5 goals. The system I am using is to wait until there has been three in a row of either overs or unders then I bet on the opposite. If the run continues, then the stake is increased in the following way: 1st bet: 5 2nd bet:10 3rd bet: 40 4th bet: 160 5th bet: 320 I have back-tested this system and it yields 25% based on the last three years of the A-League. Starting with a 100 point bank, the first bet is for 5 points today in the game between Melbourne and Central Coast to be over 2.5 goals with Sportsbet.com.au @ 2.00 for a return of 10 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLeg Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Australian Football System Will be following with interest. GL :hope and :welcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ausgenius Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Australian Football System Result Central Coast won 2-1 :dude Bank now stands at 105 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Australian Football System Martingale alert!!! Martingale alert!!! :eek:eek:eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Australian Football System Nice work Ausgenius, ill be following this with interest too. Fantastic result for this game, all 3 goals came in the final 11 mins :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ausgenius Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Australian Football System http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29 It is the Martingale system but it works more often than it fails. As I am waiting until there has been a streak of 3 either overs or unders I am reducing the risk that is associated with the system. Also, I have infinite wealth! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ausgenius Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Australian Football System If you want to mix this system up a bit, you can add a pick the score bet to make it a bit more interesting. So, when I bet that it will come out over, you also take a pick the score of 2-1, the most common over 2.5 goal score in the A-League. If the bet is under, you select 1-0 which is the most common under 2.5 score. This has come in 15 times out of 40 attempts over the past 3 years at minimum odds of 8-1 although you have to back both sides which halves the odds. Would have come in today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Australian Football System As I am waiting until there has been a streak of 3 either overs or unders I am reducing the risk that is associated with the system. I'm not even going to begin picking that sentence apart..... :\ Anyway, have a search on Martingale in this forum and you will see countless threads on it all coming to the same conclusion. Also, I have infinite wealth! No need to bet then! :tongue2 Good luck, I fear you will need it. :) Oh and :welcome to PL by the way! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ausgenius Posted November 4, 2007 Author Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Australian Football System Ok, so I am new to this site and have just read up about Martingale betting (should have done it before posting but.....) We will continue with the system and see how it goes. Interestingly, in the last 4 years of the EPL, the following over 9 in row occured: 11 overs in August 2003 9 unders in November 2003 9 unders in August 2005 10 overs in December 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 4, 2007 Share Posted November 4, 2007 Re: Australian Football System http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29 As I am waiting until there has been a streak of 3 either overs or unders I am reducing the risk that is associated with the system. Also, I have infinite wealth! :loon:loon:loon Please tell me how this reduces the risk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ausgenius Posted November 5, 2007 Author Share Posted November 5, 2007 Re: Australian Football System Pretty smart statement hey? Understand the martingale theory now so won't be making these type of statements again. We will see how we go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pondicherry Posted November 5, 2007 Share Posted November 5, 2007 Re: Australian Football System Gppd luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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