Boulder5111 Posted December 12, 2007 Author Share Posted December 12, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Results (the Luton v Millwall game was postponed) 6 Chesterfield v Bradford (1-1) 4/5 9/1 16/1 9/10 6 MK Dons v Accrington (5-0) 8/15 16/1 25/1 4/5 2 more for the weekend..... 6 Watford v Plymouth 8/11 10/1 18/1 5/6 8 Huddersfield v Bristol Rovers Evens 15/2 12/1 4/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 15, 2007 Author Share Posted December 15, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Results 6 Watford v Plymouth (0-1) 8/11 10/1 18/1 5/6 8 Huddersfield v Bristol Rovers (2-1) Evens 15/2 12/1 4/5 A pretty good day thanks mainly to Watford getting turned over by a late Plymouth winner to land the 10/1 shot (Draw/Away).:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted December 17, 2007 Share Posted December 17, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System :clapGreat stuff Hoprock, looking better & better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 18, 2007 Author Share Posted December 18, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System thanks again Bedlam :ok It's not easy bringing yourself to oppose an odds-on table topping team playing at home against a seemingly average team like Plymouth but you've just got to keep your bottle !:) Just one for the weekend... 6 Chester v Bury 10/11 9/1 14/1 9/10 All the best :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 23, 2007 Author Share Posted December 23, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Result 6 Chester v Bury (2-1) 10/11 9/1 14/1 9/10 I thought the 'full house' might be on when it was 1-1 at half time but Bury had a player sent off which put an end to that ! :wall Got the overs bet in though, managed to get 2.18 on Betfair so a money back kind of day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted December 23, 2007 Share Posted December 23, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Yeah, I decided to follow you this week, that's why it didn't come in! Sorry to jinx it. But stakes returned is ok! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 24, 2007 Author Share Posted December 24, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Not to worry Bedlam, hopefully you'll be on board when a full house does arrive !! :hope Boxing Day 6 Burnley v Sheff Wed Evens 8/1 12/1 22/23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomica Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Very interesting and exciting bet. 1:1 HT and only 1 to full house! Wait for next! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 28, 2007 Author Share Posted December 28, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Very interesting and exciting bet. 1:1 HT and only 1 to full house! Wait for next! thanks very much Yomica :ok The match finished 1-1 but perhaps the big one is on the way :hope It won't be this Saturday though cos there aint any ! :loon Like you say, it's quite a fun bet and the only wipeout scores are 1-0 and 2-0 so you can relax once the away team score. I'll check the New Years Day fixtures after Saturdays games...hopefully find one or two then :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System just noticed this thread mate - it looks very interesting. keep it up!:tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 29, 2007 Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System hi mate, i think i can help you out with some backtesting if you are interested? if so - can you clarify your selection process please? My criteria is as follows : 1. Use an odds comparison site to find the 'suitable' games. I use www.oddschecker.com and pick out all the games where the away team is best priced at 5/2 or bigger. 2. Using www.footballanorak.com, add the home teams number of losses (when odds on favourite) to the away teams number of wins (when 5/2 or bigger outsider). 3. If this total figure is 5 or more then we have a selection. do you just look at the last 8 games at home for the home team - then see how many of these are losses WHEN they are priced 2.00 or less? and the last 8 aways - how many are wins when priced 5/2 or more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 29, 2007 Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System ah. i'm picking up that it is the last 8 games h or a that you look at? also - does the h team have to be =5/2? or is this just for th eback count of 8 matches? would you mind giving an eg just to make sure i have it correct? let me know if you want me to backtest a few leagues - i have a template ready. no worries if not - keep up the hard work. :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 29, 2007 Author Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System ah. i'm picking up that it is the last 8 games h or a that you look at? also - does the h team have to be =5/2? or is this just for th eback count of 8 matches? would you mind giving an eg just to make sure i have it correct? let me know if you want me to backtest a few leagues - i have a template ready. no worries if not - keep up the hard work. :tongue2 Hi mate, thanks for the interest, any more research would certainly be appreciated. :ok I basically go through the 4 English leagues using oddschecker and any match which has the away team best priced at 5/2 or bigger is basically a candidate for a bet. If the away team is 5/2 or bigger, then the home team will be around Evens or worse so I just tend to quickly scan down the away teams price to quickly pinpoint possible selections. Then I log onto footballanorak and click 'betting tools' then long shot league table. I then click the down arrow above the teams which sorts all the teams into alphabetical order so that they are easier to find. I'm then looking at the first pink figure which is the number of wins the away team has had when 5/2 or bigger (ie an outsider) from a maximum of the last 8 occasions when this criteria has been met. For example, today Watford v QPR was a close call because QPR have 2 wins when 5/2 or bigger and Watford have lost 3 when Evens or shorter (this is found using the Dead Cert League Table). I simple add these 2 values together and if this is 6 of more we have a bet.:ok Hope this explains things, let me know if you need anything else, many thanks.....:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 29, 2007 Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Ok mate. So the away sides last 8 away games when they were 5to2 or more are examined. So in theory some top away teams may never have been this price? Is it away games or all games? Is it home games for the home team too priced at evens or worse? I suppose you run one reason into another so bets from aug look back to may? Sorry so many questions. The spreadsheet is made but i am not home at mo so will update with a few leagues tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 29, 2007 Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Sorry. Season not reason! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 29, 2007 Author Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Hi again, yeah, you're getting the picture. As you say, there are many teams that are never 5/2 or bigger away so they never crop up (the likes of Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal etc). Also, as you say the games may go back a fair way on occasion. I have copied and pasted the explanations from the footballanorak website as follows: :ok Long Shots The "Long Shot" League below shows the performance of all teams in England and Scotland in games where their odds are 5/2 or longer at the >Bookmakers. It shows up to the last 8 games which fill those criteria although not all teams will have played 8 games that qualify. In that instance their average profit/loss per game is calculated over the reduced number of games. Any team with less than 6 qualifying games isn't included in the table. Use this table to find promising outsiders to back. Those teams at the top of the table perform well when they are taking on superior opposition and raise their game. Teams at the bottom represent those that fail to convert their status as strong outsiders into sufficient wins to make them worth backing. Dead Certs The "Dead Cert" League below shows the performance of all teams in England and Scotland in games where their odds are Evens or shorter at the >Bookmakers. It shows up to the last 8 games which fill those criteria although not all teams will have played 8 games that qualify. In that instance their average profit/loss per game is calculated over the reduced number of games. Any team with less than 6 qualifying games isn't included in the table. Use this table to find reliable short odds teams to back. Those teams at the top of the table perform well when they are expected to. Teams at the bottom represent those that fail to convert their status as strong favourites into sufficient wins to make them worth backing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 29, 2007 Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Cheers mate. For the away team are the last 8 5/2 matches aways or all (home and away) games? Ditto for the homes. Which leagues and seasons did you back test? Let me know and i will post some results tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 29, 2007 Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Shame watford qpr didnt qualify! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 29, 2007 Author Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Cheers mate. For the away team are the last 8 5/2 matches aways or all (home and away) games? Ditto for the homes. Which leagues and seasons did you back test? Let me know and i will post some results tomorrow. Hi again :ok For the 5/2 Aways, the results are the number of wins when 5/2 or bigger on AWAY matches only, and obviously the homes relate to home matches only. I've been doing it over about 2 or 3 seasons and it definitely works, there just aren't many selections which is why I trialled using 5-rated games rather than just 6+ rated games, but the results weren't too impressive for the 5-rated games. I also tried a similar method using home bankers, ie home teams that didnt let you down when odds-on versus away teams that didnt cause shocks when underdogs but again there werent many selections. Having said that it was moderately successful (I used a total of 12 or more for the sum of home wins and away losses). Shame about the QPR game like you say !! It was in the bag by half-time :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 29, 2007 Author Share Posted December 29, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System Sorry forgot to add that I've only tested it on the 4 English divisions. I never did the Scottish leagues because when I started doing it, Betfair never had HT/FT betting and correct scores available on most of the Scottish games. I think they are all priced up now though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 30, 2007 Share Posted December 30, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System For the 5/2 Aways, the results are the number of wins when 5/2 or bigger on AWAY matches only, and obviously the homes relate to home matches only. ok just had chance to look at footy anorak. ;) the tables looks at ALL games (home and away) where the team is =5/2 then you select the number from the appropriate away or home columns. so a team may be at home and have 1 home loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 30, 2007 Author Share Posted December 30, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System hi again, yes as you say, footy anorak looks at the last 8 games both home and away but in actual fact, nearly always the away teams 5/2 or bigger games will be when they were away and the home teams odds-on games will be when they are at home. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 30, 2007 Share Posted December 30, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System ok bud. i have assembled a massive spreadsheet that backtests premiership teams from 2000/1 to the present day. it is a goliath of a sheet and runs quite slowly. it also needs a few tweaks in places. i will try and get some stats on here in the next hour or so as i watch liverpool whip man city. if the results look promising then i may try some other leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 30, 2007 Author Share Posted December 30, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System ok bud. i have assembled a massive spreadsheet that backtests premiership teams from 2000/1 to the present day. it is a goliath of a sheet and runs quite slowly. it also needs a few tweaks in places. i will try and get some stats on here in the next hour or so as i watch liverpool whip man city. if the results look promising then i may try some other leagues. thanks again mate.... for some reason though the Premiership rarely throws up selections. I'd say most are from Div2 and Div3 and the Chamionship would be next. Liverpool v City is looking good for unders by the way !! :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 30, 2007 Share Posted December 30, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System ok this is premiership, for six and a half seasons: not good :( 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ bets 143 45 14 5 back h -4% -19% -4% -23% >2.5 -6% -42% -41% -61% CS 1-2 4.9% 11.1% 14.3% 20.0% D/A 9.1% 8.9% 14.3% 20.0% av h odds 1.79 1.85 1.92 1.91 av a odds 4.77 4.48 4.2 4.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 30, 2007 Share Posted December 30, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System i have no prices for CS 1-2 and D/A so i have just quoted the % that cropped up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 30, 2007 Share Posted December 30, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System % of selections that were over 2.5: 7+ 20.0% 6+ 28.6% 5+ 28.9% 4+ 47.6% bear in mind the number of bets for some categories is very low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 30, 2007 Author Share Posted December 30, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System thanks again, very interesting stuff..... If you look at the small sample of 6+ rated games (which is what I am using) then the percentages for the D/A and 1-2 are actually pretty good since I would suggest a conservative estimate on the average price for these would be 10/1 and 14/1 respectively. (when you consider that the away team os 5/2 or bigger). I'd certainly be interested to see the other leagues which should have more candidates. Superb work anyway, you must have a shed load of data !! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted December 30, 2007 Share Posted December 30, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System agreed, but as you say the prem picks crop up rarely - for 6+ rated games i found 14 in 2470 matches - thats about one every 176 games, or around 2 a season! the 1-2 and d/a do lookto be huge yields based on those odds. i will try some scot, ch, d1 and d2 games tomorrow if i find time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted December 30, 2007 Author Share Posted December 30, 2007 Re: Goals and Dodgy Home Favourites System agreed, but as you say the prem picks crop up rarely - for 6+ rated games i found 14 in 2470 matches - thats about one every 176 games, or around 2 a season! the 1-2 and d/a do lookto be huge yields based on those odds. i will try some scot, ch, d1 and d2 games tomorrow if i find time! thanks again :ok much appreciated....I would expect somewhere in the region of 20-30 per season for each of the other divisions btw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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