Fleet's "Not To Lose" Idea

[FleetFanatic]

Find 4 teams from my ratings, the 4 highest that are priced evens or higher. But they can be anywhere in the world. Then do the following bets; Stake of 'x' amount is shared proportionately between all the combinations to give a guaranteed return of 'y' amount if none lose. Top 2 highest ratings: WW WD DW DD Top 3 highest ratings: WWW WWD WDW DWW WDD DWD DDW DDD All 4 ratings: WWWW WWWD WWDW WDWW DWWW WWDD WDWD DWWD WDDW DWDW DDWW WDDD DWDD DDWD DDDW DDDD By using the ratings above evens, we would be looking at a rough return (odds rounded down); 1.6 on 2 teams 2.1 on 3 teams 3.0 on 4 teams Now, by aiming to hit a winning run of say 10 attempts & starting with a £10 split bet on each section: BET RET2 RET3 RET4 01 16.02 21.85 30.34 02 26.04 47.86 91.76 03 42.06 104.74 277.70 04 67.89 229.21 840.34 05 109.60 501.64 2542.95 06 176.96 1097.81 7695.10 07 285.73 2402.48 23286.19 08 461.38 5257.74 70450.38 09 744.96 11506.33 213189.59 10 1202.87 25181.19 645131.83 These figures are based on the unrounded overall odds and do not account for the returned stakes being reinvested in each bet, so in theory these figures should be higher. Now obviously we're not going to hit a run of 10 easily, so I thought about having a set of rules allowing staggered withdrawals; at £100+ withdraw 10% and after each subsequent winning bet at £400+ withdraw 15% and after each subsequent winning bet at £1600+ withdraw 20% and after each subsequent winning bet at £6400+ withdraw 25% and after each subsequent winning bet these % allow the following bet to still be higher stakes So now you all know what I meant when I said I was working on something. I am basically sick of draws ruining my trebles, and as much as we do have success, we aint gonna get rich! So....am I mad with this idea? Incidently, I went with Barnsley, Rochdale, Bury & IFK Mariehamn for this today. All 4 drew - mission accomplished. :ok

[FleetFanatic]

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's "Not To Lose" Idea Damn software - seems it rounds some bets up or down by a penny but still shows the total as £10 even if its £9.99 or £10.02.....

[aliando]

Re: Fleet's "Not To Lose" Idea interesting idea (again) mate! been thinking of ways to do something similar with my ratings once all divisions are up and running - will follow this with interest.

[kevsul]

Re: Fleet's "Not To Lose" Idea Nice Idea again Fleet. Good Luck with it mate.:hope A bit late to have a go at the 4 selections

[Dumyat]

Re: Fleet's "Not To Lose" Idea 1) If you back win and draw with the same book you are absorbing two chunks of their margin rather than one. 2) The value part of a bet is almost never the draw part so why waste stakes on that part - especially when you are paying such a massive premium price to get with the draw. 3) Why not use DRAW NO BET or the ASIAN 0 option to eliminate these pesky draws.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's "Not To Lose" Idea Bunkerflo & Artmedia both lost to ruin it anyway. :$ As for the question od "draw no bet": Here's an example using the next 2 premier league fixtures:

Barclays Premier League		Reset	Bet

Book Closes			1	X	2
21 Oct 16:00	West Ham v Sunderland		10/11	9/4	7/2	+37
22 Oct 20:00	Newcastle v Tottenham		11/8	23/10	2/1	+37

Using the optimized WW WD DW DD, £10 would return £16.50 plus part of the stake (between £1.54 & £3.67) Now admittedly, you can get Newcastle alone at 1.66 on DNB..... .....but what about like yesterday when my 4 selected teams all drew? On DNB I would have simply only got my stake back. On another note, I think my ratings system is pants abroad.:lol

[Morris]

Re: Fleet's "Not To Lose" Idea Good luck with the idea FleetFanatic, I noticed it would have worked in your recent round of trebles seeing as alot did not lose. I did actually try this, didnt have too much sucess, so will definatly watch with interest when its in the hands of someone who can do something with it. And one other thing... I did notice in the more hostile countries, especially Russia, the home team were hard to beat whatever the odds. Maybe something to look into ---> a lot of draws this season and dominant home teams, but I will leave that for you to look at.

Home \ Away	CSK	SPM	LOK	ZEN	RUB	MOS	LUE	TOM	SPN	KRY	SAT	ROS	AMK	DYN	KHI	KUB
CSKA Moscow		1-1	2-0	2-0	3-1	2-0	4-0	0-0	2-0		3-1	4-0	1-0	0-1	0-0	0-0
Spartak Moscow	1-1		1-2	3-1	2-1	3-1	2-1	3-2	2-2	1-0	2-0		0-0		2-0	4-0
Lokomotiv Moscow	1-2	4-3		1-0	2-1	1-1	1-1		3-1	5-2	0-2	2-0	0-1	2-2	1-0
Zenit	2-1	1-3	1-1		2-1		3-1	2-1	4-3	1-1	1-1	2-0	0-0	3-0	4-1	1-0
Rubin		3-1	3-0	1-4		1-1	3-0	1-3	2-1	1-0	0-1	0-0	1-0	2-1	2-1
Moskva	2-1	2-0	1-2	0-3*	2-1			2-0	1-0	3-1	3-2	1-0		4-1	0-2	1-0
Luch-Energia	4-0	1-1	3-0	0-1	2-0	0-1		0-0		0-0	2-1	1-1	1-0	0-1	1-1	1-0
Tom	0-1	1-1	4-2	0-1	2-0	1-2	3-1		2-0	1-2	1-1	1-1	0-1	1-0		2-0
Spartak Nalchik	1-1	1-2	0-0		1-0	1-0	2-0			0-0	1-3	0-0	0-1	4-1	1-1	1-0
Krylya Sovetov	1-0	0-2		1-3	3-0	0-0	3-0	1-1	1-2		0-1	0-1	1-0	3-2	1-0	2-3
Saturn	2-2		1-1		1-0	0-0	0-1	0-0	1-1	1-1		1-0	2-0	2-1	1-0	2-0
Rostov	1-1	1-3	0-2	2-3	1-1	1-1	1-1	2-2	0-1	1-1	1-3				1-1	0-1
Amkar	1-1	0-1	1-0	1-1	2-1	1-1	1-0	3-3	1-1	4-1		3-1		1-1	3-1	0-0
Dynamo Moscow	1-1	0-1	2-1	4-2		0-0	1-0	3-1	2-0	1-1	1-1	3-0	0-0		2-1	1-0
Khimki	1-1	3-0	1-2	2-2	0-0	1-3		1-1	1-0		0-0	1-0	1-0	1-0		1-0
Kuban		0-0	0-0	1-1	0-1	4-1	1-1	2-1	2-2	3-2	2-2	1-0	1-1	0-4	1-1

In 216 home games, the home team 'did not lose' 177 times, and did lose 39 times. To me this is a large proportion, I am not sure how it measures up to other leagues, haven't had the time to check properly :ok

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Fleet's "Not To Lose" Idea Thanks for that, not sure where I am going to go with this for the moment. I know on Saturday all the teams rated a lot stronger than the teams I used on the Sunday. Maybe I needed to be more disciplined with my selections. :spank

[DC]

Re: Fleet's "Not To Lose" Idea

1) If you back win and draw with the same book you are absorbing two chunks of their margin rather than one. 2) The value part of a bet is almost never the draw part so why waste stakes on that part - especially when you are paying such a massive premium price to get with the draw. 3) Why not use DRAW NO BET or the ASIAN 0 option to eliminate these pesky draws.

or...Lay multiples on Betfair? :ok

[Dumyat]

Re: Fleet's "Not To Lose" Idea

or...Lay multiples on Betfair? :ok

Indeed if you are backing WIN/DRAW Newcastle then that is a lay of Spurs. However the lay price was astronomic - the win/draw prices means you were offering 3.6 to B365 on a Spurs win when best price anywhere was just 3.2. So even although you have a good system for finding teams not to lose the prices will often be too rubbish to make any long term profit because of the way the bet is made. ie backing win/draw with same bookie. So IMHO Asian 0 is a better way - asian always offered at lower margin. DRAW NO BET is a two option bet which is always lower margin than 3 etc. If you really can keep coming up with a series of teams not to lose then an acca of XNB, even if each is odds on and with some ending up void, will still be a good win.