Matthew Posted September 28, 2007 Share Posted September 28, 2007 To highlight a thread in "Punter's Tools & Betting Help" and also for a bit of interest........I'd thought I'd try out the system highlighted in the other thread. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=55571 Other thread Post #1: Will this catch on? Care to share? A great way to know if something is going to work is to backtest........ This is only possible with data......I can't begin to think how many of us, particularly in this systems and strategy area of PL, spend time playing around with data, calculating ratings, testing this that and the other...... Some people may feel protective of their hard work......but would you feel so defensive if you had been helped by the others on here? The number of spreadsheets, text files, access databases lying around deemed useless by members must run into the 100s.....1000s maybe. Wouldn't it be great if we all shared the info, different stats, different takes on similar topics, widely available information - but in a form that is useful. We all help each other with advice - why not start helping with your redundant or current data. I'll start: Something I have been playing around with is Corners in Football. With no odds data readily available I've aggregated the betfair data to find weighted odds ((volume matched * odds) / volume matched) for all the EPL matches offered in 2005. This results in 102 games. File Layout: League - E0 for EPL Date - Date of match Home Team Away Team 9 or less - betfair "weighted odds" for this market 10 - 12 - betfair "weighted odds" for this market 13+ - betfair "weighted odds" for this market avg(home team corners in last 3 home games) - expected home team corners avg(away team corners in last 3 away games) - expected away team corners Actual Corners - The number of corners that actually happened in the match What have I found out so far? If the expected home team corners + expected away team corners > 12 then backing the 13+ market would result in the following from the 102 matches in this dataset. At £5 level stakes No of bets:___33 Stake:___£165.00 Return:__£204.45 Profit:____£39.45 Yield(%)___23.9% I have not taken into account betfair commision. I'm hoping this inspires others to share as I think this is something that would add to this already awesome community. Yes some will leech all the info and never contribute - do I care? Probably. But this is very much in its infancy and I can see a group of the more data-orientated types on here sharing between each other and possibly not in such a public way as this. Lets help each other beat the bookmaker. Care to share? With a starting bank of 100pts, 5pts per bet in the EPL this weekend we have: 29-SEP-2007 Birmingham v's Man Utd 5pts on 13 or more corners. Currently at 2.34 on Betfair - but I'll wait for the market to mature a little first......I'll update before kick off. I'd be interested in peoples thoughts on the system but also the overall premise of what I am suggesting.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreaditabout Posted September 28, 2007 Share Posted September 28, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? As someone who has spread-bet Corners over many years I wish you well, but I think your back test sample is too small. You have chosen an interesting match to highlight there as it falls into a catagory that I follow with certain teams. Hope your bet goes well, and if I may I will put my bet forward on the same match, sorry to impose. I would never bet over 13 on that game (dont worry, that means nowt). I would look at Corner Soup in this match, if ManU are quoted at 1.5 or LESS in this game, back them. ie Corner Superiority ManU/B'ham 0.5 - 1.5 (or better) BUy @ 1.5. I assume this is a tv quoted game, sorry, havn't checked, just interested in Corners.cheers and good luck. spreadit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 29, 2007 Author Share Posted September 29, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? Birmingham v Man U is on setanta. This thread is less about the bets and more about the premise of sharing data. Rather than us all beavering away doing sometimes similar things, couldn't we just share it? I started the ball rolling with corners odds from betfair as these are not readily available. It could therefore be deemed as useful. The Betfair market has settled down a bit so: 29-SEP-2007 Birmingham v Man Utd, 5pts on 13 or more corners. Bet placed @ Betfair, odds = 2.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 30, 2007 Author Share Posted September 30, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? 29-SEP-2007 Birmingham v Man Utd' date= 5pts on 13 or more corners. Bet placed @ Betfair, odds = 2.76 Only 8 corners in this game, 4 per team. Bank = 95pts Is there any interest out there in sharing data or is this to be a lonely crusade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 3, 2007 Author Share Posted October 3, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? Arsenal v Sunderland and Fulham v Portsmouth fit the bill 2x5pts on 13 or more corners. I'll post the odds closing to KO as the markets havent formed yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 7, 2007 Author Share Posted October 7, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? As this is just a trial I hope you will forgive me for not posting the odds before the off. Betfair data has not appeared yet so I have no idea what the odds were on the first winner. I'll post when the odds data appears. Arsenal v Sunderland = 10 corners - WRONG Fulham v Portsmouth = 13 corners - RIGHT :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 14, 2007 Author Share Posted October 14, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? The odds available at Betfair were 2.37 on 13 or more corners in the Fulham v Portsmouth. Bank = 96.85pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 14, 2007 Author Share Posted October 14, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? A bumper edition this weekend with 5 bets: (avg corners in last 3 homes) v. (avg corners in last 3 aways) On the 20th.... Arsenal (7) v Bolton (6.333) Aston Villa (5.333) v Man Utd (7) Blackburn (7) v Reading (6.667) Middlesbrough (8) v Chelsea (6.333) On the 22nd.... Newcastle (6) v Tottenham (9.333) * Odds will be posted closer the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 20, 2007 Author Share Posted October 20, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? A bumper edition this weekend with 5 bets: (avg corners in last 3 homes) v. (avg corners in last 3 aways) On the 20th.... Arsenal (7) v Bolton (6.333) Aston Villa (5.333) v Man Utd (7) Blackburn (7) v Reading (6.667) Middlesbrough (8) v Chelsea (6.333) On the 22nd.... Newcastle (6) v Tottenham (9.333) * Odds will be posted closer the time. The only televised one is: Aston Villa (5.333) v Man Utd (7) 5pts on 13 or more, 2.64 @ Betfair On the 22nd.... Newcastle (6) v Tottenham (9.333) - Market yet to form Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 27, 2007 Author Share Posted October 27, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? Aston Villa (5.333) v Man Utd (7) 5pts on 13 or more' date= 2.64 @ Betfair - 12 corners!!!!!!!!!!!! Newcastle (6) v Tottenham (9.333) - 11 corners!!!!!!!!!!!! Portsmouth (8) v West Ham (4.33) 5 pts on 13 or more, 2.26 @ Betfair - skinny odds!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 27, 2007 Author Share Posted October 27, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? Portsmouth (8) v West Ham (4.33) 5 pts on 13 or more, 2.26 @ >Betfair :cow "Skinny odds", rightly so - there were 16 corners!!!!!! Bank = 93.15pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 27, 2007 Author Share Posted October 27, 2007 Re: Where for art thou, Mr Corner? One for Sunday: Liverpool (6.66) v Arsenal (7.33) Market yet to form.......current odds for 13 or more, 2.40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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