Sandown 15/08/07

[robsterling]

Didn't see a thread for Sandown today. Sorry if I missed it just delete this one if it's there. Anyway the 7.05 race interested me today so studied it a little: 7.05 Sandown Handicap (Class 3) (3yo, 0-90) 7f16y GOOD Shevchenko

• 6 starts, 2 wins, 1 second and 1 third.
• 5 of 6 races have been 7f.
• 1 on good going, this was LTO, where he won his handicap debut beating Perfect Star over CD (one of todays opponents) by 2l.
• Carries 9-9 today (top weight), LTO carried just 8-13 and highest winning mark was 9-2, has only carried as much as 9-3.
• Seb Sanders takes the ride, he won on this horse LTO and also earned a 2nd place finish before on him.
• Trainer J Noseda in ok form - over last fornight had 2 wins from 19 runs, 5 of which were favs but with some decent price places.

Pefect Star

• 5 starts, 2 wins and 2 seconds.
• 3 of 5 races have been 7f.
• Just one on good going, LTO (losing to Shevchenko mentioned above)
• The Racing Post comments LTO said "She would have been a clear winner herself without Shevchenko in the line-up and simply ran into a better handicapped rival." That was Shevchenko's first race at Cl 3.
• Today she carries 9-6, but has only won off 8-12 and carried as much as 9-3.
• Philip Robinson takes the ride today who has previously had a win and a second on this horse (the second being in a Cl 2 race). One of the top course jockeys at Sandown - 255 runs, 35 wins, 33 seconds, 31 thirds (£1 stakes +£35.13).
• Trainer CG Cox in good form - 4 wins from 18 runs, as 4 seconds, only 1 of the 18 was a fav.

Princess Valerina

• 7 starts, 1 win, 1 second and 2 thirds.
• 3 of 7 races have been 7f, finishes in these were 3/10, 3/4 and 14/14.
• No races on good going.
• LTO at Ascot over 7f where finishing 3/10 Racing Post said "Princess Valerina hit the front two furlongs out. She was only collared late on for second and was probably not done any favours by the antics of the winner." Winner Docofthebay was hanging to the left in this race.
• In a Newmarket maiden has beaten Shevchenko over 6f.
• Carries 9-6 today, has previously only carried as much as 9-0 and only win came when carrying 8-12 in the aforementioned maiden.
• However since the win in that maiden has been ran in 2 Class 1 races and one Class 2 (as well as 2 Class 3's)
• Michael Hills takes the ride today, he has rode this horse all races except LTO.
• Trainer BW Hills in good form - 10 wins from 43 runs, 7 of the 43 were favs.

Milestan

• 8 starts, 1 win and 1 second.
• 3 of 8 races have been over 7f, finishes were 14/19, 5/11, 2/6. All other races, but one, have been over 8f.
• One run on good going, 14/19 in Cl 3 handicap at Newmarket.
• LTO finished 5/10 in Cl 3 handicap over 8f at Newmarket GF.
• Carries 9-3 today, has won off 9-0 and carried as much as 9-6. After having non suitable races in Cl 1 handicaps and a few off days, can maybe find form off this mark.
• Ted Durcan takes the ride today who has ridden the horse 3 times before with no success.
• Trainer HRA Cecil in great form - 5 wins (all of which have been in the last 7 days) from 17 runs, with just 2 favs.

3 non-runners in this race mean, there are just 2 other runners; Norisan and Bellnech: Norisan won LTO in a Cl5 over 7f after competing in Cl1 and Cl2 without success since maiden win. Joint top weight and no form on good going will mean he has a lot to prove. Bellnech has had two recent wins on the AW but still no turf form to speak of and finished last LTO on turf in Cl 4 handicap. Wow didn't realise how long it got I need to exercise some discipline and keep these reviews short. Anyway I think Shevchenko is definitely a worthy fav here, and was forecast at 9/4 in the RP. However the non-runners have obviously seen its price drop and I think it will continue to shorten until the off. It's currently 1.83 on Betfair, which I believe is too short and should hopefully shorten more and I will be looking to lay at about 1.7. Especially with reports of some rain at Sandown in the last hour I think this alone could easily upset the fav. So my verdict for this race is simply lay Shevchenko approx 1.8 on Betfair as the other competitors all have weaknesses to make them not worth backing alone for me but all have a chance at turning over this odds on shot. Would be great to hear your opinions and sorry for the long post!

[Carl]

Re: Sandown 15/08/07 Fook the apologises mate :clap well done for the great post and Good Luck :ok