Magners Celtic League 2007/08

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http://www.magnersleague.com/ Currently, all the attention of the Rugby world is (quite rightly)on the World Cup, but domestic action will continue alongside events in France and with the Magners League kicking off on 31^st August, I thought it was about time for a thread for the 2007/08 season!!

						Team	Best Bookies Odds
4.00	Ospreys							:void(0)'>Ospreys	3
5.00	Leinster							:void(0)'>Leinster	4
7.00	Llanelli Scarlets							:void(0)'>Llanelli Scarlets	6
7.00	Ulster							:void(0)'>Ulster	6
8.00	Cardiff Blues							:void(0)'>Cardiff Blues	7
11.00	Munster							:void(0)'>Munster	10
34.00	Glasgow Warriors							:void(0)'>Glasgow Warriors	33
51.00	Edinburgh							:void(0)'>Edinburgh	50
67.00	Dragons							:void(0)'>Dragons	66
251.00	Connacht							:void(0)'>Connacht	250

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For what it’s worth here’s my early assessment of all 10 teams. Feel free to comment if you disagree...

Title Contenders:

Ospreys 3/1 (Last season 1^st)

Ok I may be biased, but in my view Ospreys are definitely the best team in the league. When at full strength I would back them to beat anyone in Europe at home and with stars like Justin Marshall, Ryan Jones, James Hook, Gavin Henson and Shane Williams they are a cut above most sides in the ML. Thanks to their financial clout they also have the biggest squad in the league, emphasised by an Ospreys second string XV defeating Australia A last year. This will only be increased by the signings of Mike Phillips and Ian Gough who could both find themselves on the bench. There are also strong rumours of the arrival of Marty Holah from New Zealand, regarded by many as the second best #7 in the world which would be a massive signing. However, this may not necessarily translate into success in the ML. Despite the controversial omissions of Henson and Cockbain from the Welsh world cup squad they have still lost a large number of players and there is always the danger of several of them coming back injured. Another factor is coach Lyn Jones. Let’s just say I’m not a fan and his team selections are regularly baffling. It is very possible that he will not take the league seriously at all this year in pursuit of European glory and with an easier pool than in recent years this may allow Ospreys a long Heineken Cup run to which he will devote most of his resources. Another run in the Anglo-Welsh cup would also probably take priority over the league.

Undoubtedly the best squad in the league and whilst rightly installed as favourites by the bookies I would be very wary of backing Ospreys.

Leinster 4/1 (Last season 3^rd)

Leinster threw away the league last season and will be hugely keen to make amends this time around. They have a very exciting back line containing the likes of Brian O’Driscoll, Gordon D’Arcy, Shane Horgan and Felipe Contepomi, they shouldn’t be hit to badly by Dennis Hickie’s retirement due to the emergence of Luke Fitzgerald. When these guys are playing they can tear apart any side in Europe if provided with enough possession. This was a very big if last season as their pack was regularly bullied out of games and they seemed to lack the heart for a scrap. The signing of Shane Jennings from Leicester will definitely help and they have brought in an Argentinean prop and Springbok veteran Ollie Le Roux to help at scrumtime. Whether these new signings can bolster their forward effort will be central to their fortunes. One thing in their advantage is that they normally pick close to their strongest available lineup for most ML games.

They are likely to be concentrating on the league for most of the season and if their glittering backline survives the world cup intact and the new signings in the pack have the desired effect this could well be their turn at last.

Llanelli 6/1 (Last season 4^th)

The Scarlets played some breathtaking rugby at times last season in reaching the semi finals of the Heineken Cup. This run took it’s toll eventually on their league campaign but with a very tough HEC group (Munster, Wasps and Clermont) this time around they may target success in the ML. Their halfback pairing of Dwayne Peel and Stephen Jones is second to none and Regan King was imo the ML player of the season last year. Whilst their pack is not the best, with a backrow of Easterby, Popham and Thomas they can compete in the ML and their backs make full use of whatever ball they do get. They have not made any really impressive signings in the summer as of yet and their squad is on the smallside, so they struggle during the 6N and probably will do during RWC but on their day they can beat anyone.

The Scarlets’ small squad will need good luck with injuries, but if they get it expect them to challenge once again.

Munster 10/1 (Last season 6^th)

At this stage last season Munster were widely regarded as the best side in Europe, but here they are available by as much as 10/1 to win the ML. The bookies have put up this price as the expect Munster to continue with their trend in recent years of not taking the league that seriously. They have 12 players in Ireland’s world cup 30 and their squad will definitely be stretched throughout the season. However, despite some torrid performances in the league last year they still finished only 10pts away from top spot. This season they find themselves along with Llanelli in the HEC group of death and an early exit could well see them look for silverware in the league this year as I’m sure their fans are tired of seeing second string sides put in poor performances. Their pack is formidable with the likes of Paul O’Connell, Denis Leamy and David Wallace all world class and the signings of Brian Carney and Rua Tipoki should help their backline become a more dangerous outfit so they could mount a proper challenge this season.

Possibly stung into putting more into the league by some poor performances last year, Munster could well be good value here with the quality of players they have.

[2hcb]

Re: Magners Celtic League 2007/08 Possible Challengers: Ulster 6/1 (Last season 5th) Ulster put up a disapointing defence of their title last season. Despite the emergence of new talents like Andrew Trimble and Neil Best in the green shirt of Ireland they never really performed baring a 30point rout of French giants Toulouse in the HEC. Victims of their success somewhat as they now lose more players to Ireland than they did when they won the title but the fact that veteran fly half David Humphreys can no longer dominate games the way he used to has upset their pattern. Ravenhill will always be a fortress for the Ulstermen and they will most likely be comitted to the league and will put in passionate, physical displays but I just feel they lack the quality in certain areas to challenge the top sides. The signing of Rob Dewey is a good one and he should form a good centre pairing with Andrew Trimble and Neil Best and Stephen Ferris make for a strong backrow unit. The side definately lacks pace and quality in the back three and with questions over Humphreys ability to last the pace Paddy Wallace really has to make the step up this season in partnership with the impressive Isac Boss or they may struggle again. Always consistant and tough to beat at home, but should only come into the title reckoning if the big boys allow them. Cardiff 7/1 (Last season 2nd) Cardiff must be a hugely frustrating team to follow. On paper their side is trophy material with the likes of Wales stars Gethin Jenkins, Martyn Williams, Gareth Thomas and Tom Shanklin aswell as kiwis Ben Blair, Xavier Rush and Paul Tito but the Blues always seem to bottle it when it comes to the crunch. They did so in losing to Llanelli at the tail end of last season and didn't turn up for their Anglo-Welsh semi until too late. For me their weakness is a lack of control and temperament in the side under pressure. I am really not convinced by Nicky Robinson as a fly half and Mike Phillips moving to Ospreys is a big blow. The arrival of Gareth Thomas should help with this, but his recent displays for Wales have not been all that impressive and he seems to be past his best. They often struggle to finish their chances so losing Chris Czekaj to injury will not help that. Cardiff had a good season last year, but I don't expect Dai Young to be able to recreate that this time around especially as they have a favourable HEC draw which could lead to them prioritising Europe over the league. Glasgow 33/1 (Last season 7th) Towards the back end of last season, Glasgow were on fire. They came from behind to very nearly cost Ospreys the title and there is a renewed sense of optimism at the club especially given the turmoil the rest of Scottish rugby finds itself in. They have a very exciting back three lined up in Samoan Lome Fa'atau, Rory Lamont and Thom Evans so should score plenty of tries playing outside experienced signing from Leicester, Daryl Gibson. Number 8 Kelly Brown was Scottish player of the year whilst at Borders last season and he will make the forwards a much more competitive forward unit. The doubts are at halfback where they are yet to find a man to fill the #9 jersey and doubts remain over fly half Dan Parks' consistancy. If Parks fires and the backline stays injury free, Glasgow will continue to improve. Their squad probably isn't big enough to last the distance but I certainly wouldn't have them 33/1.