jonnyb1978 Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 To start off a 20pt win on 14.15 Stratford - Hot Zone @ 1.22 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? The system will work around backing or laying odds on favourites depending on statistical data. Im using the information on Adrian massey site to work out which bet to place. More details to follow as im struggling for time duw to work commitments Starting book of 100 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? Nice easy winner to start with mate, Good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? Yeah easy start to begin with but any odds on winner can be said to be easy until you get a dead cert loser. Thats were i hope to minimise this by filtering out the backers from the layers. 14.15 Stratford - Hot Zone @ 1.22 Betfair:ok Start Book = 100 pts Total bet = 20 pts No of bets = 1 Back Strike rate = 100% Lay SR = - Total SR = 100% Profit = 4.40 - 5% = 4.18 Total book = 104.18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 2 selections for today 1. Brighton. Commandment @ 1.23. 20pts win to win 4.60 2. Newton. Maree Hall @ 1.73. Lay 5pts to win 3.70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 2 selections for today 1. Brighton. Commandment @ 1.23. 20pts win to win 4.60 2. Newton. Maree Hall @ 1.73. Lay 5pts to win 3.70 Edit 2.The price 1.73 was the back price not the lay but the bet amount and winnings are correct. 2 more selections to add 3. 16.45 Newt Tom sayers @ 1.77 - 10 pts to win 7.70 4. 18.15 Notts Unnefer @ 1.69. Lay 5 pts to win 3.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 2 selections for today 1. Brighton. Commandment @ 1.23. 20pts win to win 4.60:ok 2. Newton. Maree Hall @ 1.73. Lay 5pts to win 3.70:ok Profit of £8.30 - 5% = £7.89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 3. 16.45 Newt Tom sayers @ 1.77 - 10 pts to win 7.70:ok 4. 18.15 Notts Unnefer @ 1.69. Lay 5 pts to win 3.45:ok Profit of £10.15 - 5% = £9.64 Start Book = 100 pts Total bet = 60 pts No of bets = 5 (3 x back / 2 x lay) Average bet 15 pts Back Strike rate = 100% Lay SR = 100% Total SR = 100% Profit = £21.71 Total book = 121.71 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? Todays first selection 14.50 Sandown Jedadiah. LAY @ 1.98 5 pts to win 4.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? Chepstow 18.50 Glencal @ 1.85 - 10 pts win 19.20 Guarantia @ 1.75 - 10 pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? Sandown 14.50 Jedadiah. LAY @ 1.98 5 pts to win 4.90:wall Chepstow 18.50 Glencal @ 1.85 - 10 pts win:ok 19.20 Guarantia @ 1.75 - 10 pts win:ok Profit of 16 - 5% = 15.20 - 5.00 = 10.20 Start Book = 100 pts Total bet = 85 No of bets = 8 (5 x back / 3 x lay) Average bet 10.625pts Back Strike rate = 100% Lay SR = 66.66% Total SR = 83.33% Profit = 31.91 Total book = 131.91 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 19.30 NEWM Familiar Territory @ 1.53. - 10 Pts win 18.25 Newm Centenial @ 1.72 - 15 pts win 20.15 Cat Yossi LAY @ 1.79 - Risk 1.95 to win 5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 19.30 NEWM Familiar Territory @ 1.53. - 10 Pts win:wall 18.25 Newm Centenial @ 1.72 - 15 pts win:ok 20.15 Cat Yossi LAY @ 1.79 - Risk 1.95 to win 5pts:wall Total Bet Today = 26.95 Total returned = 25.80 Profit = -1.15 N.B. I have discovered a discrepancy with my previous calculations on the lay bets. I have included the backers stake as the main bet (element of risk) so below i will recalculate my total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 14.15 Stratford - Hot Zone @ 1.22 Betfair - 20 pts win :ok Profit 4.40 Brighton. Commandment @ 1.23. 20pts win to win 4.60:ok Profit 4.60 Newton. Maree Hall @ 1.73. Lay 3.70pts to win 5.00:ok Profit 5.00 16.45 Newt Tom sayers @ 1.77 - 10 pts to win 7.70:ok Profit 7.70 18.15 Notts Unnefer @ 1.69. Lay 3.45pts to win 5.00:ok Profit 5.00 14.50 Chep Jedadiah. LAY @ 1.98 4.90pts to win 5.00:wall Profit -4.90 18.50 Glencal @ 1.85 - 10 pts win to win 8.50:ok Profit 8.50 19.20 Guarantia @ 1.75 - 10 pts win to win 7.50:ok Profit 7.50 Profit 42.70 - 5% = 40.565 40.565 - 4.90 = 35.665 Start Book = 100 pts Total bet = 82.05 No of bets = 8 (5 x back / 3 x lay) Average bet 10.256pts Back Strike rate = 100% Lay SR = 66.66% Total SR = 83.33% Profit = 35.665 Total book = 135.665 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? Total including todays bets and things should be spot on. Winnings with 5% = 10.26 Losing = 11.95 Total profit= -1.69 Start Book = 100 pts Total bet = 109 No of bets = 11 (7 x back / 4 x lay) No of wins = 8 (6 x back / 2 x lay) Average bet 9.91pts Back Strike rate = 85.71 Lay SR = 50% Total SR = 67.86% Profit = 33.975 Total book = 133.975 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 21, 2007 Author Share Posted August 21, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 18.50 Perth Champagne Harry @ 1.42 - £20 win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErBola Posted August 21, 2007 Share Posted August 21, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? Champagne Harry Win! Good pick! Nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oggyoi Posted August 21, 2007 Share Posted August 21, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? Champagne Harry Win! Good pick! Nice. Made even sweeter with a small double on Raffish in the 7.50 race ! :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 22, 2007 Author Share Posted August 22, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 18.50 Perth Champagne Harry @ 1.42 - £20 win:ok 8.40 - 5% = 7.98 profit on todays selection Start Book = 100 pts Total bet = 129 No of bets = 12 (8 x back / 4 x lay) No of wins = 9 (7 x back / 2 x lay) Average bet 10.75pts Back Strike rate = 87.5% Lay SR = 50% Total SR = 68.75 Profit = 41.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 22, 2007 Author Share Posted August 22, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? Todays selection 15.10 York Peeping Fawn @ 1.55 - 10pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 24, 2007 Author Share Posted August 24, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 15.10 York Peeping Fawn @ 1.55 - 10pts win:ok Another winner slowly building the fund up. But for how long?? Profit = 5.50 - 5% = £5.23 Start Book = 100 pts Total bet = 139 of bets = 13 (9 x back / 4 x lay) No of wins = 10 (8 x back / 2 x lay) Average bet 10.69pts Back Strike rate = 90% Lay SR = 50% Total SR = 70% Newbook = 147.19 Profit = 47.19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 2 lays and a win for tomorrows racing. Wont be able to post until tomorrow night so picking selections now at the present odds. Hamilton 15.35 Arenas Dream @ 1.99 Lay Liability 7.43 to win 7.50 Salisbury 18.10 Mccartney @ 1.97 Lay liability 7.50 to in 6.70 Salisbury 18.40 Brightmind @ 1.6 win 20.00 to win 12.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted August 31, 2007 Author Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? Hamilton 15.35 Arenas Dream @ 1.99 Lay Liability 7.43 to win 7.50:wall Salisbury 18.10 Mccartney @ 1.97 Lay liability 7.50 to in 6.70:wall Salisbury 18.40 Brightmind @ 1.6 win 20.00 to win 12.00:wall Worst day so far. With all horses doing the opposite to what i wanted them to do. Start Book = 100 pts Total bet = 173.93 of bets = 16 (10 x back / 6 x lay) No of wins = 10 (8 x back / 2 x lay) Average bet 10.87pts Back Strike rate = 80% Lay SR = 33.33% Total SR = 56.66% Newbook = 112.26 Profit = 12.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted September 3, 2007 Author Share Posted September 3, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 13.40 Lingfield Mujaadel @ 1.5 20.00 win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonnyb1978 Posted September 4, 2007 Author Share Posted September 4, 2007 Re: Odds On Horses. Back or lay? 13.40 Lingfield Mujaadel @ 1.5 20.00 win:ok 10.00 -5% = 9.50 profit Start Book = 100 pts Total bet = 193.93 No of bets = 17 (11 x back / 6 x lay) No of wins = 10 (9 x back / 2 x lay) Average bet 11.407pts Back Strike rate = 81.8% Lay SR = 33.33% Total SR = 57.6% Newbook = 121.76 Profit = 21.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.