algorithmbetting Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds :welcome to PL algorithm looking forward to seeing how your system does :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds Surely the fair odds on Birmingham is a mis-print... ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 11, 2007 Author Share Posted August 11, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds Surely the fair odds on Birmingham is a mis-print... ??? nope, how often do chelsea lose at home. how often are they beaten by a lesser team and more to the point one which has just won promotion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds DATE HOME WBX Odds AB Odds Value Level Stake AWAY WBX Odds AB Odds Value Level Stake 14/08/07 Tottenham 1.92 1.43 35% 1.00 Everton 5.00 10.28 -51% -0.25 15/08/07 Birmingham 2.54 0.00 0% 0.00 Sunderland 3.10 2.03 53% 1.00 15/08/07 Fulham 2.43 2.68 -9% -0.70 Bolton 3.50 3.54 -1% -0.40 15/08/07 Man City 1.70 1.27 34% 1.00 Derby 6.20 20.76 -70% -0.19 15/08/07 Portsmouth 6.20 9.57 -35% -0.19 Man United 1.72 2.30 -25% -1.39 15/08/07 Reading 7.20 30.99 -77% -0.16 Chelsea 1.62 2.11 -23% -1.61 15/08/07 Wigan 2.46 8.36 -71% -0.68 Middlesbrough 3.30 2.35 40% 1.00 Average: -18% -11% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds will you be making any tips/bets based on these stats or are you just seeing what happens for now and sharing the stats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds DATE HOMEWBX OddsAB OddsValueLevel StakeAWAYWBX OddsAB OddsValueLevel Stake15/08/07Birmingham2.540.000%-0.65Sunderland3.102.0353%1.00 but of a glitch in the system - always under development! - which has birmingham on zero rating. ive added a bet against them here just to reconcile with my spreadsheet otherwise things are going to get messy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds So what are you recommending here? A 1pt bet on Sunderland? What is the -0.65 under Level Stake next to Birmingham? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds yes, sorry, its not the clearest is it. -.65 on birmingham is laying .65 at 2.54. so i gain .65 if birmingham dont win or lose 1 if they win and yes 1 point back on sunderland. so my notation is -'ve for lay bets and +'ve for backing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 23, 2007 Author Share Posted August 23, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 26, 2007 Author Share Posted August 26, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted August 31, 2007 Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds If you're using data that goes back to the 93 season, why don't you just use your model and find out what you would have won/lost in the last 3 or 4 seasons - instead of using a 'live' trial (and spare us all the meaningless 'profit this week' type comments...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 31, 2007 Author Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds here is the ROI for previous seasons. no odds data was available prior to the 00/01 season. the 06/07 season roi of 0.85% is up to Feb and 06/07 ROI of 3.83% is from Feb 07 to end of season. 2000/110.25%2001/29.85%2002/36.10%2003/48.14%2004/58.73%2005/64.47%2006/70.85%2006/7 - LIVE ODDS3.83% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted August 31, 2007 Author Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds here is the ROI for previous seasons. no odds data was available prior to the 00/01 season. the 06/07 season roi of 0.85% is up to Feb and 06/07 ROI of 3.83% is from Feb 07 to end of season with live odds. odds prior to feb 07 have been adjusted upwards 8% for home and 12% away to try and best estimate exchange odds. clearly this is not accurate at the level of each game but since the model does not prefer to back or lay i think over all seasons it is a useful estimate. ROI No.bets2000/17.49%7602001/23.59%7602002/37.15%7602003/49.71%7602004/52.61%7602005/63.51%7602006/7 to Feb 071.39%4942006/7 from Feb 079.12%266 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted August 31, 2007 Share Posted August 31, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds Well that is a very impressive record - thanks for posting. I'll be keeping an eye on the thread - good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted September 2, 2007 Author Share Posted September 2, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted September 13, 2007 Author Share Posted September 13, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted September 17, 2007 Author Share Posted September 17, 2007 Re: Fair value Premier league odds given the zero points my system gives derby, although in itself illogical, it does suggest a max bet against derby. just a shame the odds are now 5.4. so derby is amended to: 17/9/07Derby5.40-1.0Newcastle1.920.13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted September 20, 2007 Author Share Posted September 20, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted September 21, 2007 Author Share Posted September 21, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted September 23, 2007 Author Share Posted September 23, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted September 28, 2007 Author Share Posted September 28, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
algorithmbetting Posted October 2, 2007 Author Share Posted October 2, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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