Satellite Bubble

[GaF]

Just watching the PL'rs on the Bubble in the Virgin Festival - and thought it would be interesting to consider the best way to play in this situation .... what do we think the factors are in this situation? The main thing that occurs to me is that the gap is far bigger than usual ..... it takes a far stronger hand to call, than it usually would, so it should take less to shove..... Of course - stack size is everything - if you are the big stack , your "gap" is larger than anyone else's - only the small stack can call with anything other than a premium premium hand.... but, if you're the big stack, do you need to accumulate chips? If you are all but 100% sure to qualify, why risk any chips? Is your "near 100%" likely to increase or decrease by getting involved? So, assuming he has enough hips, the big stack should probably just sit it out.... The middle stacks - what should they do? Well, they should probably almost never call an all in, even with AA. Ideally they want to keep uninvolved and let 2 other players go up against one another and someone get knocked out .... If there are only middle stacks to play after them (and assuming it's not especially deep stacked at this point in the tourney) then it could well be reaonable to shove, with almost any 2 cards (another assumption here is that the players to act after you are good enough to know how strong a hand they would need to call....) The short stack (and assuming he has a low M too) is the one who needs to get busy - and he SHOULD have more fold equity than he usually has ... the big stacks dont need to get involved and the mid stacks should be scared to get involved (and risk becoming the short stack)..... What about "co-operative play" - say everyone folds to the Button. Button is the short stack with 1.5xBB, You have 5xBB on the SB and the BB has 4.99x BB (would it make a difference if he had 5.01 x BB?). The button, predictably shoves - as you know he will with virtually any 2 cards.... You look down at a mid PP, something like TT. Should you call, with a view to the BB also calling and checking it down? Or should you shove to isolate and try and secure your safety? Worst case scenario - imagine calling, the BB calls, flop comes J82 rainbow, you check, but the BB shoves - what now? You have to fold .... he shows down Q6 (or othr rags). Was the BB wrong to shove? Probably, but he got you off the hand and gave himself a chance to increase his stack, got a "freeroll".... So I'm thinking, Stack size and implications on the gap are important at this stage, little else is of significance (including cards!!) - do you agree/disagree? What other factors do you consider important?

[georgej]

Re: Satellite Bubble I'd fold. If i was BB i'd go allin with TT. There's always the chance the 25o from the shortstack wins it. You will be ahead of the BB in chips if he loses so depending on the time available on the clock and how long the round is - this would be what i look at. Don't know how much the buyin was or the prize for being in the money. Let others fight it out - the shortstack will need to fight. Wait for a softer target with a decent hand.

[slapdash]

Re: Satellite Bubble In a sense, I think there isn't a best way to play in situations like this! I used to play quite a lot of round 4 Rounders STTs on Prima (10 players, 5 qualify for round 5), where this kind of situation is commonplace when it gets down to 6 players. A lot of the time, unless there are big differences in stack sizes, it's virtually never right to call a large bet. If everybody fully realized this, then you would have large +EV by going all-in every time you could be first into the pot. However, if you did this too often, then somebody will eventually get fed up and call you (bad for him, bad for you, but good for everybody else). In practice the most successful strategy seemed to be pushing just enough to stay in contention: if you were chip leader, then often that meant you'd been pushing too often, I think.