Perth ~ Sunday 15th July

[Sheerluck Holmes]

:ok

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Perth ~ Sunday 15th July

2:40

TOTESPORT 0800 221 221 NOVICES' CHASE (CLASS 3) (5yo+) Winner £6,506.00

2m4f110y GOOD

Vaughan is a non runner so the field is now 9 in this competitive event over fences. P Bowen has a fantastic record round here 11/25 overall and 4/10 over in chases. He saddles Contact Dancer who has hit the turf twice (inc LTO) in his last 4 outings (once at this trip) and apparently was not at all fluent in his other races. Despite Bowen coming all this way (the days longest traveller) the jumping is a big worry for me and will just have to leave alone on this occasion although if its jumping is up to par, has good chances. Balinahinch Castle has been off course far too long to be seriously considered, was handy for a couple of races in his prime but easy to pass over here. Caprioska has good place chances IMO and has dependable Graham Lee onboard. Break no problem as won from a 2yr lay off previously but may find 1 or 2 too good. Chase debutant Champagne Only is easy to leave alone having shown next to nothing in 8 hurdle starts. (Now a non runner) Consistent Commercial Express is one that interests me. Won at Perth LTO "and as [that] was only his fifth race over fences, he should improve a little more yet". Has Timmy Murphy on borad and is sure to go well with the ground to suit. . Guiliani and Kyle of Lochlash have a lot to do here today to figure and am happy to leave this pair alone. Not a trace is winless after 22 (16 over fences) beaten by Commercial Express here on penultimate start and it will be a surprise to me to see him changing that here but should be a decent bet for for some place money as he likes to plod on round here. Tickateal is another consisternt sort, placing in his last 4 outings, including a win LTO at sedgefield on Good to firm, best form is definitely on drier ground and although it shoudl figure, I'm siding with Commercial Express @ 4.50. Win - Commercial Express @ 4.50 E/W - Not A Trace @ 8.00 (hoping it stays an 8 runner race).