Tuesday

[Guest beamer]

Southwell 2.30 Cloud Dancer This one is the main bet for me today even though I don't think we will see any of the 5/1 in the RP. I view this race as a match between Cloud Dancer and Blakeset and I do feel my selection can turn around the 6lths from their last meeting. Although Cloud Dancer is only 6lb better off, I also think the extra furlong will be a critical factor. She clearly needs 7f, possibly a mile to be seen at her best, whilst Blakeset's Southwell form is over 6f. Blakeset 6f at Southwell: 2112-211-1 63% SR Cloud Dancer 6f at S'ell: 2-7 0% SR Blakeset 7f at Southwell: 6-0 0% SR Cloud Dancer 7f at Southwell: 2-1 50% SR Another consideration is that Cloud Dancer is at the top end of her form, whilst you could argue Blakesets last win, was his worst recent performce. The RP claims CD's last run was poor, but I would argue it was a sound performance in a Class C from a poor draw. Blakeset actually ran in this race last year, finishing 6th btn 5.75 lenths at 7/2. His only other try at the trip he finished 16/16. I may have jumped to conclusions because he has won over 7f at Wolverhampton, but at odds on, I think he is worth taking on. I cannot see any other runners in the shake up, although Earlston is one to watch in the future. Southwell 3.00 Stolen Song I've tipped this for his last two runs and I still think connections still have not got the best out of him. My comments for the Lingfield run: " Difficult to read this one as this may be a prep run for a decent hurdle race on Saturday. I'm still prepared to get involved on account of the jockey booking, cheeckpieces and recent run. The f/c 14/1-16/1 also seems decent. I'd assume people will view his last hurdle run as something of a fluke, when splitting Mondul and Dickens who have gone and shown vast improvement. It is possible that the hurdling break may have freshened him up and the distance appears his ideal trip. 0/23 are poor stats, but I don't regard the trainer as having much of a record with 3yo's. Handles the course O.K and could be well h'capped based on previous runs over C&D last year. I would expect some market interest if a decent run was expected" He finished 4/14 that day, having been supported from14/1-7/1. That was probably a better race than I thought, over too sharp a trip. He was supported again when he won over 2 miles here, but I think the drop back could be an advantage. Although closely matched on ratings, the opposition look out form. Delta Force looks to have peaked though this could be his trip . I think any formlines involving Fall In Line, may be expensive to follow, so I will ignore the chances of Surdoue. For small stakes, I think Stolen Song is worthy of a bet around the overnight 6.4. Southwell 3.30 Critical Stage Must be 5/2+ I will only play at the price, with two lto winners in the field and the fact Critical Stage will have to win off a career high mark. Amir Zaman is 3/3 over 12f, but even with Fallon on board, the trip looks too short, off this new mark. Although Intricate Web appeared to need every yard of the trip lto, I think he needs to be opposed over this longer trip. Any comments appreciated. Cheers beamer

[Guest The Insider UK]

Re: Tuesday Just one to good but hard lines