Grex Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) Thanks again, Morselis. I´ll work on my "system" over the next few weeks and, of course, I will share any mind-blowing discoveries :eek on this forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morselis Posted August 15, 2007 Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) nice work with excel Grex ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) Washington have lost 2 ATS (Connecticut W1) Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics(+1) @ 2.00 :D Houston have won 2 AND Detroit have lost 2 ATS Houston Comets @ Detroit Shock(-6.5) @ 2.00 :( Chicago have lost 5 ATS (NY W1) NY Liberty @ Chicago Sky(-2.5) @ 1.98 :D 3 bets @ 8.40pts per bet=25.20 staked :hope 2 winners 1 loser 25.20pts staked 33.43pts returned Number of bets: 101 Winning bets: 57 Losing bets: 41 PUSH bets:3 Strike rate: 56.44% Total staked:796.63pts Starting bank:100pts Yield:9.59% Profit (or Loss): 76.38pts Current bank:176.38pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) Just one tonight and its the clash of the titans. Indiana have won 3 ATS (Connecticut L1) Connecticut Sun(=1) @ Indiana Fever @ 2.00 1 bet @ 8.81pts :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted August 15, 2007 Author Share Posted August 15, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) I have noticed that this season´s WNBA yield could be significantly improved by applying some additional criteria eg. don´t "chase" teams on a streak greater than 4. I've discussed this more than once with El Stuart and I knew there was a point where it became unprofitable to chase teams however I didn't want to rush in and say where that point was. It may be better to give a team 2 chances in any streak before you remove them from consideration. What this will do is allow you one chance to back the team. They may continue their streak when they would not qualify as a bet in this system and this could take them above the 4 game threshold. I would argue (certainly in NBA) that it would not hurt too much in giving the team one last chance in their current streak. The WNBA season ends in the next week or so and I will gather my results and look for any leaks as well. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted August 16, 2007 Author Share Posted August 16, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) Just one tonight and its the clash of the titans. Indiana have won 3 ATS (Connecticut L1) Connecticut Sun(=1) @ Indiana Fever @ 2.00 :D 1 bet @ 8.81pts :hope 1 winner 8.81pts staked 17.62pts returned Number of bets: 102 Winning bets: 58 Losing bets: 41 PUSH bets:3 Strike rate: 56.86% Total staked:805.44pts Starting bank:100pts Yield:10.58% Profit (or Loss): 85.19pts Current bank:185.19pts 1 for tonight Houston have won 3 ATS Chicago Sky(+4.5) @ Houston Comets @ 1.94 1 bet @ 9.26pts :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) 1 for tonight Houston have won 3 ATS Chicago Sky(+4.5) @ Houston Comets @ 1.94 :D 1 bet @ 9.26pts :hope 1 winner 9.26pts staked 17.96pts returned Number of bets: 103 Winning bets: 59 Losing bets: 41 PUSH bets:3 Strike rate: 57.28% Total staked:814.70pts Starting bank:100pts Yield:10.58% Profit (or Loss): 93.89pts Current bank:193.89pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) Still waiting for Statfox to update New Yorks stats because of last nights win against Washington but I am guessing that they probably had points in hand yesterday and so would be W1 ATS and therefore not a pick. IF I'm wrong I'll add that one later but for now there is just one game tonight. Seattle have won 2 ATS (LA L1) LA Sparks(+8.5) @ Seattle Storm @ 1.99 9.69pts staked :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomica Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) +4 for LA on halftime, -20 FT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) +4 for LA on halftime' date=' -20 FT.[/quote'] :eyes 1 loser Number of bets: 104 Winning bets: 59 Losing bets: 42 PUSH bets:3 Strike rate: 56.73% Total staked:824.39pts Starting bank:100pts Yield:10.21% Profit (or Loss): 84.20pts Current bank:184.20pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted August 19, 2007 Author Share Posted August 19, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) Its the last night of the WNBA regular season tonight and so the last night of picks from me in this thread. San Antonio have lost 2 ATS (Minnesota W1) San Antonio Silver Stars(-2.5) @ Minnesota Lynx @ 1.93 Detroit have lost 4 ATS (Indiana W1) Detroit Shock(+3) @ Indiana Fever @ 1.99 Phoenix have won 3 ATS (Sacramento L1) Sacramento Monarchs(+6.5) @ Phoenix Mercury @ 1.94 LA Sparks have lost 2 ATS (Houston L1) Houston Comets @ LA Sparks(-1) @ 1.91 4 bets @ 9.21pts per bet=36.84pts staked :hope :hope :hope :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted August 20, 2007 Author Share Posted August 20, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) Its the last night of the WNBA regular season tonight and so the last night of picks from me in this thread. San Antonio have lost 2 ATS (Minnesota W1) San Antonio Silver Stars(-2.5) @ Minnesota Lynx @ 1.93 Detroit have lost 4 ATS (Indiana W1) Detroit Shock(+3) @ Indiana Fever @ 1.99 Phoenix have won 3 ATS (Sacramento L1) Sacramento Monarchs(+6.5) @ Phoenix Mercury @ 1.94 LA Sparks have lost 2 ATS (Houston L1) Houston Comets @ LA Sparks(-1) @ 1.91 4 bets @ 9.21pts per bet=36.84pts staked :hope :hope :hope :hope I guess it was always risky going on the last games of the season but 4 losers is a bit of a bummer. :sad Despite this I'm still satisfied with the results of my 1st season in WNBA and I feel it will go from strength to strength. :ok Anyway here are the final results. Number of bets: 108 Winning bets: 59 Losing bets: 46 PUSH bets:3 Strike rate: 54.63% Total staked:861.23pts Starting bank:100pts Yield:5.50% Profit (or Loss): 47.36pts Current bank:147.36pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 20, 2007 Share Posted August 20, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) Great effort again Valiant23. You've found a gem here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddiegetz Posted August 30, 2007 Share Posted August 30, 2007 Research results i checked out 6 seasons, 2000-2005. it was really interesting. first surprise was that this scenario happens a lot. i didn't expect so many bets. the nfl is seriously spread streaky. so instead of tracking 2 game streaks i used 3 in order to reduce the data. i don't think this made a material difference as far as winning pct goes. the other thing i wasn't sure about is what to do when both teams match the criteria. my logic places two bets, i don't think this is what you're doing. the example you used in post 138 was: "Oakland L2 ATS @ New England W2 is a bet on Oakland" that sounds like even though both teams are on streaks, only put a single bet on Oakland. my code has it as 2 bets on Oakland in these cases. again, i don't think that's a big impact on the numbers. Grex if you have any info for these seasons in your spreadsheets i'd appreciate it if we could compare data. if anyone wants a copy of this spreadsheet i'll email it to you so you can test it out. overall, based on my findings (which could have bugs, always a possibility) i'd say that if you catch this thing on the right season, you'll do great, like in 2001. but across these six seasons, it worked out to 50% win pct. the logic i used was Winning Streaks On a given week, find a list of all teams on a spread winning streak of three games or more. For each team on this list, so long its opponent is not also on the list, bet the opponent. Losing Streak On a given week, find a list of all teams on a spread losing streak of three games or more. For each team on this list, so long its opponent is not also on the list, bet the team. i looked at six seasons, 2000-2005 Winning Pcts - 00-53%, 01-59%, 02-46%, 03-40%, 04-44%, 05-57% Losing Pcts - 00-46%, 01-34%, 02-50%, 03-57%, 04-53%, 05-39% Push Pcts - 00- 1%, 01- 7%, 02- 4%, 03- 3%, 04- 4%, 05- 4% Total Bets for Season - 00-102, 01-70, 02-104, 03-98, 04-114, 05-74 Total Bet Wins Season - 00- 54, 01-41, 02- 48, 03-39, 04- 50, 05-42 Total Bet Loss Season - 00- 47, 01-24, 02- 52, 03-56, 04- 60, 05-29 Win Streak Bet Wins - 00-26, 01-23, 02-25, 03-20, 04-24, 05-20 Win Streak Bet Loss - 00-21, 01-13, 02-21, 03-32, 04-32, 05-15 Loss Streak Bet Wins - 00-28, 01-18, 02-23, 03-19, 04-26, 05-22 Loss Streak Bet Loss - 00-26, 01-11, 02-31, 03-24, 04-28, 05-14 5 and 6 game spread streaks aren't nearly as uncommon as i had thought (which means 3 and 4 are even more common), here's a sample from just 2000: 5 game spread W streak: Baltimore, Minnesota, Philly 6 game spread W streak: New Orleans 7 game spread W streak: Pittsburgh 5 game spread L streak: Arizona, Jacksonville, San Diego, Tennessee 6 game spread L streak: Kansas City, Seattle 7 game spread L streak: Cleveland let me know what you guys think, i'm definitely still going to give it a shot this year, see if any other patterns emerge. good luck all, go get 'em :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morselis Posted August 30, 2007 Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) I can't send PM to you. If you can send me spreadsheets an my email: [email protected] Thanks, art Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddiegetz Posted September 2, 2007 Share Posted September 2, 2007 Re: Contrary System (WNBA) i uploaded it to google. decimals were auto added in places I didn't have them, for example - the first column shows you the week. what used to say (week) 3 now says 3.0. also, keep in mind, a team doesn't appear on this list until it has won or lost 3 in a row against the spread. therefore if you are on a losing streak tab (ex. L2000) and the first row you see for Buffalo is 7.0 (week 7) BUF LOSS, that means Buffalo just lost their 4th game in a row against the spread. let me know what you think: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pBGgYRvKA12ssUBhiIUALRg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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