Carlisle 04/06

[RussP]

:ok

[Sonoftherock]

Re: Carlisle 04/06 A few horses have pulled out since I wrote this last night... hope it makes sense! 14.50 Carlisle - Blue Sky thinking (WIN) Betfair @ 1.9

One absolutely red-hot form at the moment with four wins on the bounce over the ~1m distance. Very hard to oppose here as among its amazing win streak are some much tougher races than todays. Weight doesn't look like it'll be a problem and there is not an awful lot of opposition.

14.50 Carlisle - Top Jaro (E/W) Betfair @ 6.0

If anyone is going to beat Blue Sky Thinking this afternoon it'll be this horse - but I can't see that happening. Best of poorish bunch lined up to face the hot favourite and is the only horse whose shown anything at higher level, taking 2nd in group 5 race in April. In this company its looks quite a solid E/W bet.

15.20 Carlisle - Falimar (WIN) Betfair @ 3.0

The only horse capable of beating Snow Dancer (horse has been pulled) I reckon.... and I could well do that! Its form over this ~1m2f, or thereabouts, reads 743, suggesting its getting stronger with every race - all have been in the same grouping. Looks a solid each way bet, but price may well be too short to back E/W. (Should hopefully win now snow dances has gone)

15.50 Carlisle - Slipsearcher (WIN) Betfair @ 7.4

Last couple of races haven't been so strong, and is maybe a little out of form, but has had some decent showings in the higher classes already this year - which many others in field can't boast. 5th in grade 5 race over 5f last month is much better, relavant, form than most of the rest! (Had expensive art to win last night when I wrote this…)

16.20 Carlisle - Darcys Pride (WIN) Betfair @ 3.95

I reckon this win is between this horse, Princes Ellis and Smirfs Gold.

However, I'm going with Darcys Pride - this horse is bang in form with an excellent win over 5f last time out in a tougher race.

16.20 Carlisle - Smirfs gold (E/W) Betfair @ 9.8

If there are still 3 places available this horse looks the best bet to steal the final spot. Has had two races this year, both over 5f in a higher class and has looked fairly strong. Presumably dropping down looking for win - won't get it today - but looks good for a place.

16.50 Carlisle - William John (WIN) Betfair @ 9.8

Raced mainly at a higher class over twice the distance its started on this year. The trainer must have seen something to suggest itd travel better over the shorter distances. Looked quite last time finishing 3rd in stronger race last month. I'm backing it to go two better this time out as drops another class.

16.50 Carlisle - Holiday Cocktail (E/W) Betfair @ 15.5

I also fancy Inca Soldier e/w, but will go with best value E/W shout.

Really poor last time out over 1m4f - perhaps too long-a-distance for this horse. Drops back to a more favoured 7 furlong race. It has had success over this sort of distance already this year with a 1st and 2nd in similar class races. A few others have a chance in the race.