robilaruk Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 we are ITM, so what should I do with absolute rubbish?? this is Boss so I have 2075 after posting and its 715 to call in total 200.00/400.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit ) - 01 June 2007 18:26:03 Seat 2: robilaruk (2475.00) Seat 4: cristamasy (11410.00) Seat 9: Serhat12 (1115.00) Serhat12 post SB 200.00 robilaruk post BB 400.00 ** Deal ** robilaruk [3s, 9c] cristamasy [N/A, N/A] Serhat12 [N/A, N/A] *** Bet Round 1 *** cristamasy Fold Serhat12 All-in 1115.00 Hero??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold Fold for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold ICM says you need a 25.1% chance of winning to make the call +EV. Given the circumstances, I think you have well over that, so go for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold I think you should wait for a better time to call then with 3,9 off at least have a picture card as with 9,3 off you will most likely lose and give your opponent an extra 700chips and bring yourself right into the mix again whereas even if you fold you're still well clear of the rest. I don't have any statistical analysis to back up my thoughts like slapdash though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold I'm folding......thought it was an easy and obvious fold, though Slap has me wondering now :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold ICM says you need a 25.1% chance of winning to make the call +EV. Given the circumstances, I think you have well over that, so go for it. As low as 25.1%? We're getting a little over 2-1 on our money, which I thought would have us somewhere around 31-32%. I'm no good at maths though. Either way I think I still fold, I don't feel that I'm getting that great of odds for my money and would rather keep my chips so that I have more fold equity against the big stack and also if I pick up a big hand I have more chips to double up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted June 1, 2007 Author Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold I am probably not much worse than 60/40 or so here I would imagine, and even If I am a 70/30 dog its 2:1 to call, so I am getting a fair price from the pot I think this is REALLY REALLY TRICKY - its whether by folding I have sufficient chips to get at least 2nd, or whether I am still stuck with only 5BB and calling/shoving with rubbish in a couple of hands I am interested in knowing whether I need to be gambling against the other shortie to move up the ladder Its my stack to blinds ratio that makes this so difficult IMHO Damo I'm folding......thought it was an easy and obvious fold' date=' though Slap has me wondering now :unsure[/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold Crouch - this is based on expected earnings .... not the chance of winning this hand ....... Your extra equity here is, I presume, based on the fact that if you win here, you move up in the pay scale, but if you lose, you don't move down a pay scale (though you do decrease your chances of a higher prize....) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold Spent ages trying to figure it out 'properly' but can't be bothered. I'll say fold. Edit: I think the key point here, as Nade said, is not that you'll be losing your chips - but that you'll be boosting the other short stack's too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold I am probably not much worse than 60/40 Against 2 random cards you are 60-40, I credit him with folding the very worst hands (just) - but can accept 70-30 on average - so yes - you have the odds to call.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold I think this is REALLY REALLY TRICKY - its whether by folding I have sufficient chips to get at least 2nd, or whether I am still stuck with only 5BB and calling/shoving with rubbish in a couple of hands I am interested in knowing whether I need to be gambling against the other shortie to move up the ladder Its my stack to blinds ratio that makes this so difficult IMHO Damo In my haste i've only just seen that there were 3 of you left and not 4 like i thought and there is one massive chip leader. I still think folding is best as even if he does have a decent hand now then it's unlikely he will next hand or the one after and imo you have to push within one of these 3 hands at least once or you'll be blinded down again. In a situation like this i call the short stack when i have any high card or marginal hand not with rags, in fact i don't call the big stacks with rags either in this situation ;) I'd still say though that you're bound to get a better pushing hand within the next 2/3 hands then 3,9 so it's not worth going HU at that time imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold It's true that ICM is probably least accurate when blinds are high compared to stack sizes, but consider the possibilities (your stack size listed second): If you fold: 11410/2075/1515 If you call and lose: 11410/1360/2230 If you call and win: 11410/3590/0. Assuming a $10 buy-in, you're already guaranteed $20, so it's now effectively $30 extra for coming 1st and $10 for coming 2nd. I think what the ICM would say (if it could talk) is that if you call and lose or if you fold, then you're going to be well behind the big stack, but it doesn't make that much difference to the difference between 2nd and 3rd place, especially considering that the difference in prize money is only $10, but if you call and win, then you're guaranteed 2nd place, and you have a live (albeit underdog) chance to take on the big stack to take 1st place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted June 1, 2007 Author Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold so you are saying call and take the gamble? Damo It's true that ICM is probably least accurate when blinds are high compared to stack sizes, but consider . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold so you are saying call and take the gamble? I'm just telling you what ICM says. It won't let me express my own opinion. :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold I'm calling 100% of the time here, getting 2/1 must call. Indeed it look such anawful hand against the majority of hands you're 60/40 so you're worried about pp's 10's and upwards. You can never argue with the odds, play the odds and you'll come out on top in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold I'm calling 100% of the time here' date=' getting 2/1 must call. Indeed it look such anawful hand against the majority of hands you're 60/40 so you're worried about pp's 10's and upwards. You can never argue with the odds, play the odds and you'll come out on top in the long run.[/quote'] This is the main part of my game i need to improve rapidly as i see you guys talking about odds and sods all the time and really it goes straight over my head ,i get the basics but it'd be really useful to know in tricky situations like these. Is there a solution to working out odds quickly etc cheers anyone :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold Nade a good thing to remember, say late on in a sit n go someone has gone all in for 1500 your blind is 750 it'll cost you 750 to call now regardless of your chip stack you should always call. Why? Even if he has a hand like AK you're a 6/4 underdog and you're getting 2/1. Unless you're up against a higher pair there is always + ev (expected value) from making this call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted June 1, 2007 Author Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold This is the main part of my game i need to improve rapidly as i see you guys talking about odds and sods all the time and really it goes straight over my head ' date='i get the basics but it'd be really useful to know in tricky situations like these. Is there a solution to working out odds quickly etc cheers anyone :ok[/quote'] nade go here and type in my cards - then type in AK and hit go, then change AK to K3 and hit go, then change to 55 and hit go etc and see how 93 matches up http://www.thehendonmob.com/pokercalc/index.html Cheers Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: Pop Quix (part XXI) - call or fold nade go here and type in my cards - then type in AK and hit go, then change AK to K3 and hit go, then change to 55 and hit go etc and see how 93 matches up http://www.thehendonmob.com/pokercalc/index.html Cheers Damo I've passed the first test anyway- had the poker calculator in my bookmarks for ages, but only ever used it after a hand, will be interesting to see what the results are... Interested to see 9,3 beats A,K 30% of times! in fact a lot of random hands come up as 30/70 so in your situation above a call can be argued for with almost any hand so yes it was a tough situation. Having entered a numerous amount of random hands it's made me realise that my 'bad beat' situation really isn't that special as they come up as 70/30 situations but so does AK v 93 so no hand can be taken for granted even 10J v AK is only 4% higher then the 93 :loon All very interesting stuff and will make 'bad beats' easier to get over :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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