Bounce Theory

[dave]

I'm sure you allknow about the theory that horses "bounce" after a very tough race, or in other words their best performance, well I was very sceptical about betting against a horse that appeared to be in the form of its life. As part of my preparation for the flat season, I have been setting up a spreadsheet, based around speed ratings, and decided to look how often this actually happened in practice. At first I thouhgt I was right, as horses often put up a good performance after a lifetime high speed figure. However, weight adjusting these figures makes for interesting reading. First, I will give you an example, although the weight changes are extreme to make the point Horse A gets a speed rating of 110 in week 1, carrying 8-1 Week 4 gets a speed rating of 104, carrying 9-12 Week 7 gets a speed rating 94, carrying 9-0 Now, with bounce theory, just looking at these figures, it is easy to dismiss it. You could say that the horse has bounced in the 2nd race, but according to the theory, it should have bounced back to form in its third race. Weight adjusting, these figures however, gives week 1 = rating 105 week 4 = rating 109 week 7 = rating 94 And quite clearly here, the horse appears to have bounced after the peak figure. I know I appear to have gone on a bit of a random rant here, but the point to all of this is that in preparation for the flat season, I have seen this bounce theory occur in the vast majority of horses. So, I guess what I'm saying is - if you keep speed ratings, it is probably a good idea to adjust for weight, despite what a lot of people say. Also, be careful backing horses after a great run, if in the past they have struggled after a great run. All common sense really, but the evidence I have seen in these weight adjusted ratings has really changed the way I plan to bet on the forthcoming flat season. That is all for now.