antoin114 Posted May 22, 2007 Share Posted May 22, 2007 I'm a member of this forum for some time now, but due to my shyness this is my first post. I have a question and some points to add in the "quest for value": I have come up with a simple system, I back home teams league matches to win or draw in quads. Average odds for such bets are 2-2.3 My first selection criterion is teams that have home losing rate <20%, there are at least 30 matches from the major leagues every weekend that match this. Some leagues were not included in this, as they tend to be more unpredictable. The second selection criterion is based on handicapping the home team based on table position, recent form, goalscoring and opponent's strength; for example, the home team starts with 100 points and I reduce the points if the opponent is higher on the table. From backtesting this with results from March, profit is 65 points with 10 points level stake on each quad (total 73 matches) The third selection criteria is based on team news, and is my most recent addition to this system, that is I wouldn't bet on AC Milan-Udinese 1X last Saturday had I known that Milan would field the 3rd squad; even without reading the news, the evens on AC Milan win should have made me more suspicious. Without considering the handicap scores from the second selection criterion, profit was already 82 points with the same staking plan and with more bets (total 116 matches). But most of the info come aftertimed, the newspapers and sites usually write everything from their point of view. My point is that my handicap method (subjective value estimation) is more or less as effective as to read the team news only (objective value estimation). My problem is that I can't always read the signs, if Milan is offered with home win @ evens in a match with Udinese, I get suspicious, but I also get greedy. So, here's the question: What is MORE value, to try to make a math model based on recent form (easier and global method, because one cannot possibly know all key players and injuries in 30 matches) OR read the team news for every match (evenly effective method, with less effort in calculations, but has the risk of getting inaccurate information)? I would like to hear comments, mostly from people that have some experience on power ratings. I can post my bets from March to now, but as this is aftertiming, I would consider more fair to start something correctly. I will probably post the first set of bets in the coming weekend, with leagues I haven't used before and see how it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted May 22, 2007 Author Share Posted May 22, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system Correction: From backtesting this with results from March, profit is 65 points with 5 points level stake on each quad (total 73 matches) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted May 24, 2007 Author Share Posted May 24, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted May 24, 2007 Author Share Posted May 24, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted May 24, 2007 Share Posted May 24, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system Hey antoin114, good luck with this.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 24, 2007 Share Posted May 24, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system best of luck mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fenlandtiger Posted May 24, 2007 Share Posted May 24, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system Yes, good luck! So, here's the question: What is MORE value, to try to make a math model based on recent form (easier and global method, because one cannot possibly know all key players and injuries in 30 matches) OR read the team news for every match (evenly effective method, with less effort in calculations, but has the risk of getting inaccurate information)? I would like to hear comments, mostly from people that have some experience on power ratings. I would not personally consider this as an either/or question. I personally tend to use a stats based model as a foundation, and view any other non-quantified factors (changes to team strength, managerial change, fixture congestion etc), as complications. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted May 25, 2007 Author Share Posted May 25, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system Thanx guys, I appreciate your support on this. fenlandtiger, the most difficult part of my system is to find the injury lists for the unpopular leagues, such as Czech, Romania, Austria, Turkey etc. This forum here is the best source of team info I have yet found for such leagues, no matter how accurate they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SniffTheGlove Posted May 25, 2007 Share Posted May 25, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system What was the SR after your Backtesting antoin114? An interesting read, and one that I may pursue with my own System A/System B. Using Home/Draw for my bets than just Home might put me into profit. A quick analysis shows my SR would go up from 66% to approx 85%. Thank you antoin114 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted May 29, 2007 Author Share Posted May 29, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted May 29, 2007 Author Share Posted May 29, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system SniffTheGlove, I assume you are right on the strike rate, I have a SR of near 100% in Belgium and in France 1 and 2. For the period of two months April and May, a total of 200 matches could be selected. Average strike rate for the leagues I used in the backtesting was 78%, when one blindly picks matches matching my criteria. Also, may I add to this that the average SR was above 90% before mid-May, when funny results occur more often. If you want I can send a part of the excel spreadsheet from the backtest period. Hope this helps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cains Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system From 16 matches, I lost only 3 and yet I have only one winning bet. As all readers of this post understand this is bound to happen again, the dark spot of my system. Any ideas on how to overcome this? Anyway, three bets lost and one won: Number of bets: 4 Winning: 1 Total P/L: -17.9 units Interesting system... If you bet 10units on each game as a single instead of making quadruble, you would end up with 4,5units profit, if my calculations is correct.. Dont know how it would look with double or tripple instead.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted May 31, 2007 Author Share Posted May 31, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system You have a point there cains and your calculations are very correct, but the odds are usually very low for this kind of matches. Average odds for a single match are approximately 1.2-1.25. So for a double it's 1.55ish and trebles 1.85ish. Both are odds on, at least a quad has always odds more than evens. Of course the strike rate is not as high, but profit is almost the same, due to the higher odds.:dude In the previous weekend, I included leagues I hadn't used for selections most of the times, like Spain 2 and Ireland, due to the lack of matches. In fact Spain 2 is one of the worst leagues to apply this system. Had I used only France 1, Italy 1, Czech and Turkey, I would be in profit. Leagues I have been following with success are France 1&2, Italy 1&2, Premiership, Belgium, Turkey, Romania and Czech. Leagues that don't give good results (at least to me :@ ) are Spain 1&2, Portugal, English Championship and lower, and Germany 1&2. I don't have a clear view for other leagues yet, but in time I will gain more experience in selections. Anyway I plan to include the Scandinavians, Russian 1&2, Ireland Premier and maybe Brazil in the future, so the system includes only paper testing, not real bets, at least for some time. Maybe this will result in creating a loss (in paper) but I'm definite I can overcome this :notworthy God willing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted May 31, 2007 Author Share Posted May 31, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cains Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system Yeah i know its not so much fun betting 10units on @1.12 matches.. But 22units difference in the end, could possible make me do it. :tongue2 I can find some stats for you sometime for chances for leagues 1X , so you can avoid the dodgy leagues. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system Hello Antoni. Good luck mate. It's true that IF a 'system' is profitable using single bets then it will be MORE profitable using trebles or quads (in the long term). So for start and for testing purpuses i suggest you test it with single bets, otherwise you will need four times (or is it more than X4?) the amount of matches to come to the same conclusion. Fiorituraaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted June 1, 2007 Author Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system cains, May I say a big thank you , you're a superstar. :cheers These tables is essential info in estimating global league strike rate and I already use a table like this from soccervista site (only for the current season though), and I'm sure the extra info will make things more clear. Just an addition to what you wrote: Don't ever think of using this system in the Greek leagues, there are other things to consider here:unsure Dices, we are almost there m8, singles is the easy way for profit and my initial thought was to lay the away team. Trying to make quads is a trickier approach, which involves better profit than singles, but also extreme difficulties in making winning combinations of the lot of matches. That's the dark spot as I explained in a previous post. For singles I have managed a 78% SR when I blindly select matches that the home team lost less than 20% of matches at home (for all leagues). I increased that to 86% league-specific (France 1 and Belgium are the best) and to a superb 92% after filtering matches according to team news. I am trying different quad-selection systems for a couple of weeks and haven't yet found anything noticeable. If anyone has some idea on this I would be glad to have it a go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted June 1, 2007 Share Posted June 1, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system I am trying different quad-selection systems for a couple of weeks and haven't yet found anything noticeable. If anyone has some idea on this I would be glad to have it a go. You wont find anything that stays the same in the long run. Its all depens on the strike rate. Dont waste your time. If your selection procces is profitable with single bets it will be more with quads BUT the risk will also be greater (a possible loosing run with quads will dicrease your bank MORE than with singles, it will be longer - same a winning run will give you MORE profit with quads). Use single bets but in order to increase the potential profit, increase a little bit your stakes. Some thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted June 2, 2007 Author Share Posted June 2, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted June 3, 2007 Author Share Posted June 3, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted June 5, 2007 Author Share Posted June 5, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system What can I say, you sure must have a lot free time cains. Thank you very much for these:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cains Posted June 5, 2007 Share Posted June 5, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system What can I say' date=' you sure must have a lot free time cains.[/quote'] Yeah you are problebly right.. :unsure If you need others just say it. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted June 8, 2007 Author Share Posted June 8, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system Yeah you are problebly right.. :unsure If you need others just say it. :ok Cains, Mind to share where you get results for all the leagues you mentioned? As far as I know, soccernet and football co uk have results for major european leagues only. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted June 8, 2007 Author Share Posted June 8, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system Just one bet for this weekend, with not much confidence, as Sweden 2 is still untested. Bet 1Dinamo Moscow1.18Halmstad1.35Mjalby1.17Sirius1.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted June 12, 2007 Author Share Posted June 12, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted June 15, 2007 Author Share Posted June 15, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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antoin114 Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antoin114 Posted June 25, 2007 Author Share Posted June 25, 2007 Re: My Win-Draw home system Bet 1Amkar1.35Oergryte1.25UCD1.21Mjalby1.16Bet 2Kuban1.32Gefle1.35GAIS1.55Malmo1.22 Number of bets: 10 Won: 2 Total P/L: -53.6 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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