My Win-Draw home system

[antoin114]

I'm a member of this forum for some time now, but due to my shyness this is my first post. I have a question and some points to add in the "quest for value": I have come up with a simple system, I back home teams league matches to win or draw in quads. Average odds for such bets are 2-2.3 My first selection criterion is teams that have home losing rate <20%, there are at least 30 matches from the major leagues every weekend that match this. Some leagues were not included in this, as they tend to be more unpredictable. The second selection criterion is based on handicapping the home team based on table position, recent form, goalscoring and opponent's strength; for example, the home team starts with 100 points and I reduce the points if the opponent is higher on the table. From backtesting this with results from March, profit is 65 points with 10 points level stake on each quad (total 73 matches) The third selection criteria is based on team news, and is my most recent addition to this system, that is I wouldn't bet on AC Milan-Udinese 1X last Saturday had I known that Milan would field the 3rd squad; even without reading the news, the evens on AC Milan win should have made me more suspicious. Without considering the handicap scores from the second selection criterion, profit was already 82 points with the same staking plan and with more bets (total 116 matches). But most of the info come aftertimed, the newspapers and sites usually write everything from their point of view. My point is that my handicap method (subjective value estimation) is more or less as effective as to read the team news only (objective value estimation). My problem is that I can't always read the signs, if Milan is offered with home win @ evens in a match with Udinese, I get suspicious, but I also get greedy. So, here's the question: What is MORE value, to try to make a math model based on recent form (easier and global method, because one cannot possibly know all key players and injuries in 30 matches) OR read the team news for every match (evenly effective method, with less effort in calculations, but has the risk of getting inaccurate information)? I would like to hear comments, mostly from people that have some experience on power ratings. I can post my bets from March to now, but as this is aftertiming, I would consider more fair to start something correctly. I will probably post the first set of bets in the coming weekend, with leagues I haven't used before and see how it goes.

[antoin114]

Re: My Win-Draw home system Correction: From backtesting this with results from March, profit is 65 points with 5 points level stake on each quad (total 73 matches)