Egyptian Premier League (May 21)

[Youssef]

Hello, Here are the game lines from PinnacleSports (A.H.) and BWin (3-Way). Not many bookies offer lines on Egyptian football, so check with your preferred bookie. (I know BWin are not popular in this forum, but these two are about the only 2 I use that offer lines on Egypt. Bet365 hasonly 2 games and both are in-play) N.B. All games kick off 16:00 CET, except the top two (Ahli-Zamalek & Ettihad-Issmaili). These will kick off at 19:30 CET.

Egypt Div 1 Soccer - Mon 5/21
Game			Handicap	Money Line	Total Goals	More
Mon 5/21	4000	El Ahly	-0.5 1.943		OVER 2.5 1.935
01:59 AM	4001	El Zamalek	+0.5 1.980		UNDER 2.5 1.971
Mon 5/21	4003	El Ettehad El Sakandary	pk and +0.5 1.806		OVER 2.5 1.952
01:59 AM	4004	El Ismaily	pk and -0.5 2.140		UNDER 2.5 1.952
Mon 5/21	4006	El Masry	-1 2.050		OVER 2.5 2.170
01:59 AM	4007	Olymbic	+1 1.877		UNDER 2.5 1.787
Mon 5/21	4009	El Terasanah	-0.5 and -1 1.820		OVER 2.5 2.120
01:59 AM	4010	Asyut Petroleum	+0.5 and +1 2.120		UNDER 2.5 1.820
Mon 5/21	4012	Enppi	-0.5 2.150		OVER 2.5 2.170
01:59 AM	4013	Petrojet	+0.5 1.800		UNDER 2.5 1.787
Mon 5/21	4015	Ghazl El Mahallah	-0.5 2.150		OVER 2 and 2.5 2.070
01:59 AM	4016	Tala`ea El Giesh	+0.5 1.800		UNDER 2 and 2.5 1.855
Mon 5/21	4018	Haras El Hedoud	-0.5 1.943		OVER 2.5 2.170
01:59 AM	4019	Tanta	+0.5 1.980		UNDER 2.5 1.787
Mon 5/21	4021	Suez Cement	-0.5 2.01		OVER 2 and 2.5 1.971
01:59 AM	4022	Arab Contractors	+0.5 1.917		UNDER 2 and 2.5 1.935

1. Division, Egypt
11:00 AM	El Ahly 1.85	X 3.20	El Zamalek 3.60	+3
11:00 AM	El Ettehad El Sakandary 3.00	X 2.75	El Ismaily 2.30	+3
11:00 AM	El Masry 1.45	X 3.85	Olymbic 5.50	+3
11:00 AM	El Terasanah 1.55	X 3.75	Asyut Petroleum 4.60	+3
11:00 AM	Enppi 1.95	X 3.10	Petrojet 3.40	+3
11:00 AM	Ghazl El Mahallah 1.95	X 3.10	Tala`ea El Giesh 3.40	+3
11:00 AM	Haras El Hedoud 1.75	X 3.20	Tanta 4.00	+3
11:00 AM	Suez Cement 1.85	X 3.20	Arab Contractors 3.60	+3

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21)

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Minor Leagues)
Event	Ahli - Zamalek (Egypt)
Selection	Away Win
Strength	10/10
Date	21/05/2007
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 3.50 (Back)
Reasoning	The biggest derby in the whole continent, and in the Middle East as well is upon us once more, but the circumstances are slightly different on this one. Just a reminder, in the last 8 H2H meetings, Al-Ahli won 7 and drew once. That means Zamalek has gone 8 games without a single win over their arch-rivals. 5 of these games were in the league, 2 in the African CL semi-final, and 1 in the Egyptian Cup final. Much like the previous 2 seasons, Al-Ahli are flawless and completely dominated the league and have already won the title before they play Zamalek 9and Issmaili next week). Zamalek is still not comfortable in 2nd position, with Issmaili running too close (1 point behind Zamalek), so Zamalek has 4 motives to win… at the very least: 1- Stay ahead of Issmaili in the race for the 2nd African CL ticket 2- Stop their shameful run against their arch-rivals 3- Restore self and fans confidence in order to be ebale to compete for the cup title And.. 4- Spoil their “enemies” celebrations of the title So what’s different and why would I be backing a team that’s failed to win in 8 consecutive games against their rivals? 1st, Henry Michelle. The Zamalek coach (ex Cote d’Ivoire, Tunesia & Morocco) has not lost a single league game since he arrived in Jan. His record reads 10 wins and 3 draws so far. He also managed to win 2 cup games, and he lost only once in 9 “international” games between the African CL & Arab CL. 2nd, Manuel Jose has fled! Al-Ahli Portuguese coach (who shares a LOT with Jose Mourinho) decided to start an early vacation in Portugal and won’t be back before June! He assigned his duties to his assistant Hossam Al-Badri, after issuing a “memo” to rest several key players, which leads us to the most important reason why I’m backing zamalek here: 3rd, Al-Ahli is giving a rest to almost all 1st choice players. These include: Essam El-Hadari (1st choice Int’l goalkeeper), Emad El-Nahhas & Shadi Mohammad (both centre backs), Mohammad Barakat (Int’l right defending winger), Tareq El-Sa’eed (left defending winger), Mohammad Shawqi (Int’l midfield defender), Mohammad Abu Treika (Int’l attacking midfielder), and both centre forwards: Ema Met’eb (Int’l Egyptian) & Amado Flavio (Int’l Angola). Islam El-Shater (2nd right defending winger) is also ruled out due to injury. So, Al-Ahli will have to choose from: GK: Amir Abdel-Hamid* & Ahmad Adel Abdel Mon’em D: Ahmad El-Sayyed*, Ahmad Adel, Ahmad Seddiq, Abdellah Galal, Wael Gomaa* (Int’l), Mohammad Seddiq*, Ahmad Shedid M: Hossam Ashour, Anis Bou-Jelban (Tunisian Int’l), Tareq Saad, Hassan Mosstafa* (Int’l), Mohamma Mahmoud F: Osama Hosni, Abdel-Hamid Hassan (Mido), Ahmad Bilal*, Ahmad Galal A second look at the available players shows only 3 experienced defenders available (only Wael Gomaa is solid enough though), a VERY depleted midfield with only Hassan Mostafa capable of performing at this level, and a ‘slightly” better attack with Bilal experienced enough, and either Osama Hosni or Mido able to offer support. Now on Zamalek’s side, there are NO effective absentees. Of course, 1st choice keeper Abdel-Wahed El-Sayyed would have been a perfect choice here, but he’s been out for 3 months now. 11 players are on a yellow card, so Michelle had to rest some of them and use others wisely in the last game and he managed to get them all through it with out a single 2nd yellow. Zamalek can choose from: GK: Mohammad Abdel-Monsef*, Wael Zenga D: Wael El-Qabbani*, Wessam El-Abdi (Int’l Tunisian), Amr El-Safti, Tamer Abdel-Wahhab, Osama Hassan, Ahmad Hossam, Tareq El-Sayyed* M: Tamer Abdel-Hamid*, Mohammad Abul Ela*, Shikabala, Ahmad Abdel Raouf, Hazem Emam* F: Gamal Hamza*, Abdel-Halim Ali*, Amr Zaki*, Mosstafa Gaafar All * players have enough experience in these meetings, and have played enough games to make this one a “regular” game for them. Also keep an eye on Shikabala, the most talented player on the pitch IMHO. So, while I wouldn’t completely trust Zamalek’s backline, I still think they can contain Al-Ahli strikers, and with a completely dominated midfield it would be hard for Al-Ahli midfielders to offer any support to their frontline, which makes this game mostly a one-direction flow towards Al-Ahli area, and even there I don’t see enough experience to stop the likes of Shikabala, Amr Zaki, Hazem Emam or Gamal Hamza. Also the experienced Michelle facing a “stand-in” El-Badri won’t help much. El-Badri will not have enough strategic cards on the bench to use, and he is already lacking the talent/experience to be the man-in-charge to begin with. Michelle knows this is the key game to his squad’s future. If they do win convincingly, the fans will calm down, he will gain popularity, the money from the board will start flowing, the players confidence will be recharged, and all-in-all he will have put Zamalek back-on-track after a severe drought in titles. Al-Ahli is obviously treating this game as a friendly that won’t matter to them, which IMHO is naïve. This game (and the next one in Issmailia) could bring back both rivals to life, eventhough they will not affect the title for this season. I’m so confident in “my team” that I’m betting 10/10 that they will win this game, and probably by 3 goals. P.S. Also available Zamalek +0.5 @ 1.98 w/PinnacleSports

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21)

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Minor Leagues)
Event	Suez Cement – Arab Contractors (Egypt)
Selection	Under 2.25
Strength	10/10
Date	21/05/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.93 (Back)
Reasoning	Two extremely poor scoring teams. Moqaweloun (Contractors) scored only 17 goals in 28 games. They’ve only won once in the last 14 games (scoring 7 & conceding 15 in them) and have failed to score in 9 of them. However, they’ve scored once in each of their last 3 games (Lost 1-2, Won 1-0, Drew 1-1). They are currently 9th (of 16) and completely safe, but may still want to get something here to prove a point (They have changed their manager 3 games ago). Suez Cement are 13th on the table, having won only 8 games this season, 7 of them on ntheir own filed. They’ve scored 21 goals and conceded 35 in 28 games, and have lost all last 3 by the same scoreline (1-3). However, 2 of them were against Zamalek & Issmaili, both high scoring teams, and both currently on a good run. Suez may settle for a point here, since it’s practically impossible for Tanta (14th) to win both remaining games to catch up with them. However, considering their home record (50% wins) I’m not sure I’d want to lay them lay them. If you want to take that risk, you may use PinnacleSports’ 1.917 on the Contractors (+0.5 A.H.), but I’d rather count on both teams poor scoring abilities to bet on a low score (1-0, 1-1 or 0-0). The 1st leg resulted in a 1-0 victory for the Contractors.

[davidmphill]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) Nice posts Youssef, best of luck with the picks.

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) Thanks, David. I sure hope some of you guys will make use of the info in here. P.S. Will someone please notify Aliando of the thread BEFORE the games?? *LOL*

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21)

Ettihad – Issmaili

It’s a must win game for Issmaili if they are to keep up the pressure on Zamalek for the 2^nd spot finish. With both teams (Zamalek & Issmaili) expected to run over champions Al-Ahli (for reasons mentioned in the Ahli V Zamalek preview) it’s down to this game & Zamalek V Massri next week to decide which of them plays African CL and which goes to African Confederations (in which Issmaili is still playing this season as well).

I’d expect both teams to win both remaining games each and thus Zamalek will finish 1 point ahead of Issmaili, so maybe –just maybe- Issmaili will take the game lightly, especially after playing the return leg in the African confederations cup 3 days ago.

Ettihad have 30 points and are virtually safe, though they might want to get a point or 2 more just in case Tanta does the unthinkable and wins the remaining 2 games.

However, Tanta’s result will have already been known bfore this game kickes off, and I vry much doubt Tanta can beat Harass in Alexandria, thus Ettihad may find themselves officially safe and will have no motive to perform here.

I have to say Issmaili really enjoys scoring against Alexandrian teams. The strongest of which (Harass) drew 2-2 in Alex and lost 4-2 in Issmailia. Olympi (officially relegated) lost 1-3 in Alex and 6-0 in Issmailia. Ettihad themselves lost 0-5 in Issmailia, so there’s no reason to believe this game will go under 2.5 from a statistical point of view, especially with Issmaili’s scoring atlly of late.

Yet again, Ettihad’s last 6 all resulted in under 2.5 goals. They had only 2 overs in the last 13. Add to that Issmaili playing 72 hours after their game vs. Wydad (of Morocco).

Conclusion… I prefer the outright win option for Issmaili, and slightly gavour the overs option, but I cannot be sure enough on either of them to make an official pick.

No Bet.

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21)

Haras –

Tanta

The most irritating team in Egypt this season.. Tanta..

They got 10 draws in the 28 games they played so far, 9 of them were scoreless.

However, a couple of weeks ago they lost 1-5 at home to another relegating team (Petrol Assiut) eventhough it was in the cup.

Tanta are unpredictabkle. They are the only team in the relegation zone that has a “theoretical” chance of catching up, but practically they have non IMHo. They started winning a little too late (5 wins all season, 3 of which in the last 6), and eventhough they are unbeaten in 4, I suspect this will be the end of it, and the end of their season as well.

Harrs have not been laying particularly good of late. After losing only twice in the opening 13 games (having drawn 7 of them), they suddenly decided they didn’t like the raw, so only 1 draw in the last 15. They now either win or lose.

They won 2 on the trot before falling victims to a 0-3 loss at home against Zamalek last game day (10 days ago). Now they stand 6th with 38 points, only 1 oint behind Mahalla (in 4th) and equal to El-Gaish (5th).

4th spot is particularly important ONLY if Issmaili manages to win the currently ongoing African Confederations Cup. In this case, Issmaili will re-apply as the title holders, and the 4th placed team will apply as the league qualifier.

But this is not why I will go for Haras here. My reason behind this pick is that it’s a home game, in Alex, and Haras have only lost 3 games at home, 2 of which against Ahli & Zamalek.

Also, Alex is the hoem of Ettihad (actually Ettihad is the popular team of the city) and the crowd would love to see Tanta get beat (or draw) to ensure Ettihad is safe from relegation before they even play Issmaili.

Hara were totally outclassed and outplayed by Zmalek in their last game, and got 2 red cards, but these are not their most crucial players. I think Ahmad Eid Abdel-Malek & Abdel-Hamid Bassiouni can prove too much of a challneg for Tanta’s “good?” defence.

P.S. The word “good” is relative here. When a relegating team concedes only 33 goals in 28 games, and are 10th (of 16) in the goals-against table, they must be good from their own perspective. Also 9 clean sheet for a relegating team is actually very good.

One more thing to note is there’s every chance for Mahalla to draw to El-Gaish today, thus allowing Haras (if they win) to leap over them both and land into the 4th spot.

Verdict: Haras to win is more than likely, and the odds are tempting.

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21)

Mahalla – Gaish

Definitely a NO BET game for me, but if I was forced I’d go for the draw, or the 1X.

Mahalla lost only 3 home games this season, but surprisingly enough they lost one of them to Assiut (the bottom team) and another to Arab Contractors (won only 3 on the road).

El-Gaish won only 3 on the road themselves, all of them against relatively weak oppositions (though some may argue Suez cement are not weak at home, but they were at that particular time of the season).

The last 8 for EL-Gaish all resulted in under 2.5 goals (3 goalles draws, followed by a 1-1 draw, then two 1-0 home wins and 2 away losses by 0-1 & 0-2).

Mahalla are completely unpredictable, as they won only 1 point from 4 games, before they beat Enppi at home (1-0) and followed that with a 2-2 draw on the road with Petrojet. They’re still 4^th on the table though, and they “may” qualify for the African Confederations Cup if they stay there (please refer to Haras V Tanta preview).

The game could go eithert way, depending on which Mahalla will show up. The one that drew goalless to both Ahli & zamalek, or the one that lost to Petrol Assiut 0-2 (!!!)

I maybe tempted to bet on the under 2.5 option, but that would only be relying on the visitors trend. Mahalla could choose to let one past them an score 2 and I’d end up losing the money still, so I reiterate: NO BET!

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) Nothing particularly interesting about the 3 remaining games. Enpi have not scored in their last 4, and Petrojet are relatively good on the road compared to most other teams, yet again they are the undisputed kings of raws (13 so far), and -apart from the top 3- they are the top scoring team, so I can neither chose O/U nor can I bet on the draw with confidence. Massri V Olympi & Tersana V P.Assiut both involve a mid-table team playing host to an officially relegated team. they should both be home wins, but who can use 1.45 & 1.55 respectively (BWin)? And who's gonna use -1 & -0.75 A.H. (Pinnacle) on teams that "barely" managed to save their season in the last few weeks, and mainly thanks to their opponents failing to collect enough points to sav themselves?

[888]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) good info Youssef, I'll have some crack @ Zamalek too :)

[FCK]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) I want to bet under 2,5 @ Suez Cement – Arab Contractors.Is there any liveticker on the internet or something similar, w´here i can catch thr results?

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) http://livexscores.com have all games live. (Average delay is 30 seconds to 1 minute). There are other sites but won't update/refresh as fast as this one.

[FCK]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) Thank you for fast answering! Do you have some good predictions for today?

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) All games analysed up there, mate. Just read the relevant post(s)

[FCK]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) Okey, thank you Youssef! I followed your prediction and bet on Haras

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) Odds have been falling gradually on Zamalek. Bwin now have 2.70-3.30-2.20 on Ahli-Draw-Zamalek Bet365 went up to 4.00, but then head down to 2.90 on Zamalek, which is still a bargain. Don't miss it.

[FCK]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) Where´s the game, I can´t see it on bwin.de

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) I hope you find it now.. Zamalek down to evens, Ahli up to 2.95, and the draw slightly up to 3.40

[888]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) :clap crackling stuff there Youssef on Zamalek, keep em coming ! Gotta love it when we have an info quicker than bookies did.

[davidmphill]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) Outstanding pick on Zamalek Youssef, great stuff fella.:clap

[Youssef]

Re: Egyptian Premier League (May 21) Thank you, guys. Gad to be of benifit. Btw, Wael El Qabbani missed a penalty 2 minutes into the second half. It should have been 3-0! *LOL*