Louis Vutton / america Cup

[AJ]

We're getting down to the sharp end of this now, and i think there is some cracking value to be had here. Defending champs Alinghi are tradin at 1.55 on Betfair to retain the cup. I'd put the probability of this happening at around 90%. They were totally dominant in the precup regata, and none of the challenging teams in the LV cup have really shined. For those not sure how this works, 12 teams enter the LV cup, the winner of this goes into the final against the holders of the Americas cup. Luna Rossa from Italy has just won their semi against the Americans, and will play either Team NZ or local team Desafio Espanol. Team NZ are well clear and trading at 1.03 against the Spanish @ 21 Team NZ may have a slight edge here, but it's really a coin flip. If winds are above 10 knots Team NZ will destroy them, if not LR will romp it. Winds have been high, and the 1.88 on Team NZ is a decent price. But the main thrust of my arguement is this, in Americas cup matches where the challenger has won, they have alwys romped the LV cup and been head and shoulders above the rest. The LV cup teams have been pretty samey, no one looks in the class of Alinghi. Alinghi are the swiss team making their first defence of the cup, they are owned by a billionaire, who will spend whatever it takes to win. A bit like Abranovich. They won the cup last time, by hiring the entire Team NZ team that had won it the last 3 times for multi million dollar salary packages. The losing American semi final team had spend $200m, Alinghi has spent a lot more, their new boat is miles ahead of the rest, they have the best crew and engineers. 1.55 is nailed on in my opinion.

[PAULM03]

Re: Louis Vutton / america Cup Nice write up.:ok I always wonder why Abramovich hasn't got involved in this.