mowgli77 Posted May 3, 2007 Share Posted May 3, 2007 I've noticed lately that a lot of short priced and odds on favourites keep getting turned over in the maiden races. I personally can't back a horse below about 2-1 when it has proven nothing usually and is priced up on potential or pedigree alone. This thread will be laying all favs under 2-1 (at SP) in any flat maiden race including all weather races in UK excluding Irish racing. I can't get internet access to check odds available to lay on Betfair so will have to update results when I get in. For now I'll just keep it to a win/loss ratio as it's unfair to use profit/loss when I don't even know if odds would have been matched or exactly what prices were available before the race. I'll put up selections the night before that are based on expected SP's, if they drift out or start over 2-1 no lay, any that come in and are under 2-1 SP will be a lay. I'll just run it for a month or so to start with and see if I'm on the right lines. Just to make it clear this is a paper trial only for now. :ok Fridays Selections: Fast Feet 2.50 Musselburgh (11-8) Yaroslav 3.00 Lingfield (11-8) Mia's Boy 5.30 Lingfield (5-4) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 3, 2007 Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Phil, Good luck with this, mate. Interesting idea. Just one point that may be of interest.....I used to follow all maiden race favs which finished 2nd or 3rd lto. It did produce some decent returns, albeit I had no price restriction. So, it may be worth bearing this in mind as I suspect that many of the short priced favs that have been turned over were either making their debut or are over-hyped and didn't finish in the 3 lto. Just a thought, mate, sorry for hijacking your thread.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 4, 2007 Share Posted May 4, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Good Luck Phil.:hope Be watching with intrest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB1 Posted May 4, 2007 Share Posted May 4, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Phil, Not wishing to be negative on this but I would urge extreme caution with this approach. As you state that you have noticed lately that a lot of short priced and odds on favourites keep getting turned over in maiden races. Over the past 11 years approximately 52% of these runners will get beaten but will not be profitable to lay in the long term. But please try it out for yourself just be careful and consider adding a few filters to improve your strike rate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 4, 2007 Author Share Posted May 4, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races I'm trying to be cautious with it to see what results are produced and may add some filters such as the horse being 1st time out as some do come on for the run. It's only a paper trial so no money will be lost. I might also change price filter and include any fav 1st time out in a maiden etc. It'll take some tampering about with to get right. Thanks to everyone for the input. :ok There were some short priced horses that fit the criteria that I explained I couldn't add due to no internet access but i'll include them in results to show a bigger picture as expected SP and final SP are often very different. So far today: 2.00 Lingfield - Carolina Belle 11/10fav - LOST :) 3.00 Lingfield - Yaroslav 10/11fav - WON :@ 5.30 Lingfield - Mias Boy 10/11fav - LOST :) 2.50 Musselburgh - Fast Feet 11/8fav - LOST :) Will edit and update later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races good luck with this mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races I'm trying to be cautious with it to see what results are produced and may add some filters such as the horse being 1st time out as some do come on for the run. It's only a paper trial so no money will be lost. I might also change price filter and include any fav 1st time out in a maiden etc. It'll take some tampering about with to get right. Thanks to everyone for the input. :ok There were some short priced horses that fit the criteria that I explained I couldn't add due to no internet access but i'll include them in results to show a bigger picture as expected SP and final SP are often very different. So far today: 2.00 Lingfield - Carolina Belle 11/10fav - LOST :) 3.00 Lingfield - Yaroslav 10/11fav - WON :@ 5.30 Lingfield - Mias Boy 10/11fav - LOST :) 2.50 Musselburgh - Fast Feet 11/8fav - LOST :) Will edit and update later That was the last flat racing of the day so it ended. Lays 4 - 3 lost :) 1 won :@ , pretty decent start. aliandogood luck with this mate! Cheers Aliando, I know your interested in your laying bets so hope I can throw up a few winners and some kind of pattern for you. I'll find todays selections soon and post them up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Nice start mate, I've found laying 2 year old maidens lower than 3/1 to be pritty profitable. So far this season I think it's thrown up around 8 loosers and 1 winner which was about evens.. Will keep watching this thread with interest ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Good start Phil, keep it going:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Todays Selections: Spinning Lucy 5.20 Goodwood (1/2) Monsoon Wedding 2.25 Thirsk (5/6) Incoming Call 4.05 Thirsk (13/8) Anyhting else starting under 2-1 in a maiden race will fit the criteria but nothing looks likely at this moment in time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Good Luck again today Phil. Hope this can turn out Like Aliando's , Paper trail Laying.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Todays Selections: Spinning Lucy 5.20 Goodwood (1/2):clap :clap Monsoon Wedding 2.25 Thirsk (5/6):clap :clap Incoming Call 4.05 Thirsk (13/8):clap :clap Anyhting else starting under 2-1 in a maiden race will fit the criteria but nothing looks likely at this moment in time. Again good start..:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races excellent results mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Spinning Lucy 5.20 Goodwood (1/2) LOST :) Monsoon Wedding 2.25 Thirsk (5/6) LOST :) Incoming Call 4.05 Thirsk (13/8) LOST :) SoccerJackpot 4.05 Thirsk (15/8) LOST :) Bold Abbott 4.50 Goodwood (15/8) WON :@ SoccerJackpot became a selection when it went 15/8 and was joint fav so i'd lay them both although I didn't make that clear beforehand. On the downside Bold Abbott also fit ther criteria and won. 5 lays today though with the system and 4 lost at dreadful prices. Totals: Lays 9 Lost 7 Won 2 :ok Chhers for the update Kevsul, i was at footy, much appreciated. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Phil, I hope these results, combined with the great win on Beaver Patrol, encourage you to stay away from those favourites. Get on those juicy priced animals, at double figure odds;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vegas Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Well done. Another very encouraging thread.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Phil, I hope these results, combined with the great win on Beaver Patrol, encourage you to stay away from those favourites. Get on those juicy priced animals, at double figure odds;) Definitely mate, 1 winner out of 3 at about 10-1 + keeps me nicely in profit. There are often horses I feel are wrongly priced. I'll look through the cards, decide what odds should be and compare to expected or actual odds. Beaver Patrol was too big today at 25-1. I'm not really into laying horses all that much, I like finding winners but hopefully this thread can be beneficial to those interested in laying selections. It's for their benefit mainly, maybe I should start laying them for cash if results keep up like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Tomorrows maiden races on the flat: Salisbury 1.45 Salisbury 4.05 Newmarket 4.20 Hamilton 2.05 Hamilton 4.30 Some horses looking like possibilities to fit the criteria are: Taurian 2.05 Hamilton Modern Verse 4.30 Hamilton Achilles of Troy 4.20 Newmarket Kyle 1.45 Salisbury Guardian Of Truth 4.05 Salisbury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 6, 2007 Author Share Posted May 6, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Surprisingly Kyle did not go off as favourite and Prince of Delphi took it's place and lost. :loon Todays Results: Prince Of Delphi 1.45 Salisbury - 11/8 fav - LOST :) Guardian Of Truth 4.05 Salisbury - 5/4 fav - LOST :) Achilles Of Troy 4.20 Newmarket - 7/4 fav - WON :@ Taurian 2.05 Hamilton - 7/4 fav - WON :@ Inasus 4.30 Hamilton - 7/4 fav - LOST :) Today - Lays 5 Lost 3 Won 2 Totals for the thread Lays 14 Lost 10 Won 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 7, 2007 Author Share Posted May 7, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Todays Maiden Races: 2.00 Kempton 3.30 Kempton 4.00 Kempton 2.10 Warwick 4.10 Warwick 2.20 Windsor 2.50 Windsor 3.05 Newcastle 3.35 Newcastle Likely to fit criteria: Lucarno 3.30 Kempton Graduation 4.10 Warwick Dan Dare 3.35 Newcastle Plus any other fav's that start with an SP of 2-1 or under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 7, 2007 Author Share Posted May 7, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Results of maiden fav's layed under 2-1 1stLucarno 1/2 F 3.30 Kempton :@ Zifaaf 2-1 fav 4.00 Kempton 5th :) 1st Graduation 1/3 F 4.10 Warwick :@ 1st Dan Dare 2/5 F 3.35 Newcastle :@ Todays Results: Laid 4 Won 3 Lost 1 Overall Results: Laid 18 Lost 11 Won 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 8, 2007 Author Share Posted May 8, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Todays Results Tan Bonita Catterick 6.05 Won @ 4-5 fav :@ Pennyrock Catterick 8.35 Won @ 4-6 fav :@ Kasban Chepstow 2.40 Lost @ 15-8 fav :) Cedar Mountain Southwell 2.30 Won @ 8-13 fav :@ Dreadful day 4 lays 3 won 1 lost. :cry Totals so far: 22 laid Lost 12 Won 10 I'll see how it goes for a few days and then might make it favs under 2-1 1st time out only. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races its interesting to have a look around now a few others are doing laying threads - i've had a bad few days and i just wonder whether this would correlate with others bad spells over a longer period of time.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 10, 2007 Author Share Posted May 10, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Wednesdays Results: 2.00 Beverley - Market Forces - Won @ 1-7 fav :@ 4.35 Chester - Dark Angel - Won @ 2-5 fav :@ 2 lays both won :wall Realistically I wouldn't be laying or backing Market Forces at that price, just wouldn't get involved but it fits the criteria and goes on the list. Thursdays results after racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 10, 2007 Author Share Posted May 10, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Thursdays Results: 4.35 Chester - Al Tharib - Won @ 2-1 fav :wall 2.10 Goodwood - Popedreamer - Won @ 4-6 fav :wall 4.55 Goodwood - Manbar -Won @ 10-11 fav :wall 3 lays 3 winners :wall Will run this to the end of the week and then might either knock it on the head or go for 1st time out only. 27 lays, Lost 12 Won 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 12, 2007 Author Share Posted May 12, 2007 Re: Laying the fav in maiden races Fridays Results 4.00 Chester - Azeema - Won @ 7-4 fav :$ 3.10 Lingfield - Barraland - Won @ 5-6 fav :$ 3.45 Lingfield - Galipette - Lost @ 4-9 fav :) 4.20 Lingfield - Monte Alto - Won @ 1-3 fav :$ 2.30 Nottingham - Rebel Acclaim - Lost @ 10-11 fav :) 4.10 Nottingham - Truly Enchanting - Lost @ 4-6 fav :) 3 winners 3 losers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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