Crouch Potato Posted April 20, 2007 Share Posted April 20, 2007 Being an Aussie, I'm not adverse to the odd bit of thieving here and there, and that's exactly what I'm doing here. This time I'm stealing the wonderful selections of Ads25, who has a computer predictions thing that he runs for AFL football, which is one of those strange sports only us convicts play. You can generally find these predictions here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46800 and in the weekly AFL thread. The way I'll be running this is with two bets per game based on the predictions. The first is a primary margin bet, with the margin options always Under or Over 39.5pts. This bet is available at a number of online bookies. The other bet will be an exact margin bet. This one is a really glory shot but Ads predictions are something to behold, so I'm happy to go with this one too. This bet is exclusive to the TAB. For record keeping purposes each normal margin bet will be for 20pts and each exact margin bet will be for 2pts. I'll arbitrarily nominate a starting bank of 2000pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 20, 2007 Author Share Posted April 20, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Ads' predictions for this week: Richmond336086105W.Bulldogs20335986 St Kilda15366789Essendon345779102 Collingwood26446388Port Adelaide195083100 Kangaroos20384970Brisbane16416793 Adelaide24496777Sydney24376086 Hawthorn10275175Geelong336185109 Melbourne25376084Fremantle245491109 West Coast377293119Carlton16315879 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 20, 2007 Author Share Posted April 20, 2007 Re: Convict Capers One match tonight, Richmond v Western Bulldogs. Richmond are outsiders here so there should be some value to be had. Bets: 20pts Richmond to win by less than 39.5pts @ 3.40 TAB 2pts Richmond to win by 19-20pts @ 35.00 TAB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barebear Posted April 20, 2007 Share Posted April 20, 2007 Re: Convict Capers There just had to be a team in there called the Kangaroos, eh :lol Good luck on this one Bruce, hope it's fair dinkum. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 20, 2007 Author Share Posted April 20, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Cheers Barebear :ok Unfortunately this one kicks off with a loser but I'm sure that we'll get underway in no time. Games Betted: 1 Profitable Games: 0 SR: 0% Total Staked: 22pts Total Return: 0pts P/L: -22pts Starting Bank: 2000 Current Bank: 1978 -------------------- Normal Margin Bets: 1 Wins: 0 Staked: 20pts Return: 0pts P/L: -20pts Exact Margin Bets: 1 Wins: 0 Staked: 2pts Return: 0pts P/L: -2pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 20, 2007 Share Posted April 20, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Good lcuk with this CP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 20, 2007 Author Share Posted April 20, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Thanks Staffy. Tomorrow's games bets are: 20pts Essendon to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.75 Centrebet 2pts Essendon to win by 13-14pts @ 35.00 TAB 20pts Sydney to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.45 TAB 2pts Sydney to win by 9-10pts @ 31.00 TAB 20pts Port Adelaide to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.54 Betfair 2pts Port Adelaide to win by 11-12pts @ 35.00 TAB 20pts Brisbane to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.30 Betfair 2pts Brisbane to win by 23-24pts @ 31.00 TAB :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted April 21, 2007 Share Posted April 21, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Great work here Crouch. Only just noticed this thread. All seems to be going well so far too. Two more winners today with Essendon & Port Adelaide getting up, you can actually look at those two wins as being slight upsets so the predictions are working well. Will follow with interest Crouch :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 21, 2007 Author Share Posted April 21, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Cheers Ads, unfortunately my team the Lions have been defeated so that puts me 2/4 from the weekend, with the Swans needing to lift too. Still, playing these margins means that 50% strike rate will show a tidy profit, so we're still in reasonable shape so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 21, 2007 Author Share Posted April 21, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Thanks Staffy. Tomorrow's games bets are: 20pts Essendon to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.75 Centrebet 2pts Essendon to win by 13-14pts @ 35.00 TAB 20pts Sydney to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.45 TAB 2pts Sydney to win by 9-10pts @ 31.00 TAB 20pts Port Adelaide to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.54 Betfair 2pts Port Adelaide to win by 11-12pts @ 35.00 TAB 20pts Brisbane to win by less than 39.5pts @ 2.30 Betfair 2pts Brisbane to win by 23-24pts @ 31.00 TAB :hope No exact margin wins, but both Essendon and Port Adelaide Normal margin bets are winners. The only two games fail to bring home the bacon. ------------------------------------------------------------- Ignore the $ signs, I've just made a bit of an excel sheet and so I just set it to a currency so it's easier to read (I'm too lazy to change back for these purposes) Overall Bets: 10 Wins: 2 Total Staked: $110.00 Total Returned: $104.26 Profit: -$5.74 S/R: 20.00% Yield: -5.22% Normal Margins Bets: 5 Wins: 2 Total Staked: $100.00 Total Returned: $104.26 Profit: $4.26 S/R: 40.00% Yield: 4.26% Exact Margins Bets: 5 Wins: 0 Total Staked: $10.00 Total Returned: $0.00 Profit: -$10.00 S/R: 0.00% Yield: -100.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 21, 2007 Author Share Posted April 21, 2007 Re: Convict Capers 20pts Geelong by 1-39pts @ 2.31 Betfair** 2pts Geelong by 33-34pts @ 31.00 TAB 20pts Fremantle by 1-39 @ 2.27 Betfair** 2pts Fremantle by 25-26 @ 28.00 TAB 20pts West Coast by 40+ @ 2.27 Betfair** 2pts West Coast by 39-40pts @ 26.00 TAB ** Denotes odds are already adjusted for any pending commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted April 21, 2007 Share Posted April 21, 2007 Re: Convict Capers This is actually a good system Crouch. The fact we only have 2 winning bets from 10 yet we are still pretty much breaking even is fantastic. Once we get around where thigns go our way there will be plenty of profit. The fact that the Under/Over 39.5 margins always pay over $2.00 means that over 4 winners in a round will be a good pay day, and its easily possible to do. Some strange results this weekend anyway, i wouldnt of picked Kangaroos or Adelaide beating their oponents last night :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Net has been dead all day, at a cafe atm so can't update, but 1/3 today and slightly down on the day. Gotta agree too Ads, with margins paying over 2.00 a 4/8 weekend which you had last week will show a decent profit. That's only normal margins too, the exact margins will do nicely and with the accuracy you had in the NBL I'm pretty confident you'll get half a dozen or so this year. You don't even need to get the scores right, just the margins! So overall there'll be a bit of a loss this weekend but we came pretty close. One kick would have got the Freo margin right and one kick in the Pies game would have got us an exact margin! I think we'll be hitting the jackpot soon Ads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted April 22, 2007 Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Net has been dead all day, at a cafe atm so can't update, but 1/3 today and slightly down on the day. Gotta agree too Ads, with margins paying over 2.00 a 4/8 weekend which you had last week will show a decent profit. That's only normal margins too, the exact margins will do nicely and with the accuracy you had in the NBL I'm pretty confident you'll get half a dozen or so this year. You don't even need to get the scores right, just the margins! So overall there'll be a bit of a loss this weekend but we came pretty close. One kick would have got the Freo margin right and one kick in the Pies game would have got us an exact margin! I think we'll be hitting the jackpot soon Ads. Was a poor round, a hell of a lot of upsets. A tippers nightmare really and no way every round will be like that. Amazing really considering such a bad round yet we didnt really make that much of a loss. Keep plugging away, as the results keep on coming in, the more data my system has to analyse and the more accurate it will hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 22, 2007 Author Share Posted April 22, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Was a poor round, a hell of a lot of upsets. A tippers nightmare really and no way every round will be like that. Amazing really considering such a bad round yet we didnt really make that much of a loss. Keep plugging away, as the results keep on coming in, the more data my system has to analyse and the more accurate it will hopefully. That's a big thing I think. As you have more data to use I'm confident that things will get better. Here is the update for this round: Overall Bets: 16 Wins: 3 Total Staked: $176.00 Total Returned: $149.72 Profit: -$26.28 S/R: 18.75% Yield: -14.93% Normal Margins Bets: 8 Wins: 3 Total Staked: $160.00 Total Returned: $149.72 Profit: -$10.28 S/R: 37.50% Yield: -6.43% Exact Margins Bets: 8 Wins: 0 Total Staked: $16.00 Total Returned: $0.00 Profit: -$16.00 S/R: 0.00% Yield: -100.00% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 23, 2007 Author Share Posted April 23, 2007 Re: Convict Capers I've thieved this from the AFL page. Convict Style :P Predicted Score Actual Score Richmond336086105 Richmond263551100W.Bulldogs20335986 W. Bulldogs406883132 St Kilda15366789 St. Kilda16306368Essendon345779102 Essendon8457499 Collingwood26446388 Collingwood23516466Port Adelaide195083100 Port Adelaide21496384 Kangaroos20384970 Kangaroos34425587Brisbane16416793 Brisbane Lions12394963 Adelaide24496777 Adelaide20415461Sydney24376086 Sydney4124044 Hawthorn10275175 Hawthorn3315776Geelong336185109 Geelong21326172 Melbourne25376084 Melbourne23336592Fremantle245491109 Fremantle3265110137 West Coast377293119 West Coast324465100Carlton16315879 Carlton8182939 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 24, 2007 Author Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Ads' predictions for this week: Predicted Score Essendon306490113Collingwood15325675 Port Adelaide14396991St Kilda28497085 Richmond17345264West Coast325278115 Sydney275188111Melbourne19354556 Carlton17274773Brisbane316384105 Hawthorn183468107W.Bulldogs26476073 Geelong214674104Kangaroos21456079 Fremantle18366787Adelaide27497697 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 24, 2007 Author Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Convict Capers 20pts Essendon by 1-39 @ 2.44 Betfair 2pts Essendon by 37-38 @ 31.00 TAB Note that Betfair price is not discounted for commission as Betfair offer half commission on AFL markets, so I'll have to apply it differently. It also means our P/L figures are slightly better, though still in the red. I am hopeful that'll change tomorrow :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 25, 2007 Author Share Posted April 25, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Essendon let us down and we're starting to go in the wrong direction. Seven more games this round and we'll need at least 4 of those to come in to move us in the right direction. Overall Bets: 18 Wins: 3 Total Staked: $198.00 Total Returned: $151.30 Profit: -$46.70 S/R: 16.67% Yield: -23.58% Full update at end of round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 27, 2007 Author Share Posted April 27, 2007 Re: Convict Capers 20pts Port Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.34 2pts Port Adelaide 5-6 @ 31.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 27, 2007 Author Share Posted April 27, 2007 Re: Convict Capers I think I have given Ads the almighty mock :loon 20pts West Coast 40+ @ 2.50 2pts West Coast 51-52 @ 28.00 Really need a good finish to the round :hope As it stands, these are the stats: Overall Bets: 20 Wins: 3 Total Staked: $220.00 Total Returned: $151.30 Profit: -$68.70 S/R: 15.00% Yield: -31.23% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 28, 2007 Author Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: Convict Capers 20pts Brisbane 1-39 @ 2.50 2pts Brisbane 31-32 @ 35.00 20pts Swans 40+ @ 2.20 2pts Swans 55-56 @ 26.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted April 28, 2007 Share Posted April 28, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Nicely done on those last 2.... something 2 consider i havent looked at all games but i know the WC game was predicted WC leading by 18 @ HT... and what could have the HT WC lead been (Was it 18???).... :lol :lol :lol :lol Just something to consider.... I will prob give it a go nxt round mayb will even start a thread... or just crash yours with my selections (Ads selections).... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted April 29, 2007 Author Share Posted April 29, 2007 Re: Convict Capers 20pts Hawthorn 1-39 @ 3.40 2pts Hawthorn 33-34 @ 41.00 20pts Geelong 1-39 @ 2.20 2pts Geelong 25-26 @ 28.00 20pts Adelaide 1-39 @ 2.88 2pts Adelaide 9-10 @ 31.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerrisonjr Posted May 3, 2007 Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Just stumbled upon this thread.... Have you thought of running the numbers through the lowest points per round? I just noticed that this week the odds are from $4.50 and up. Not sure if they are always this generous, but you wouldn't need a massive strike rate to come out in front. Just a thought, James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted May 3, 2007 Author Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Convict Capers Just stumbled upon this thread.... Have you thought of running the numbers through the lowest points per round? I just noticed that this week the odds are from $4.50 and up. Not sure if they are always this generous, but you wouldn't need a massive strike rate to come out in front. Just a thought, James I'm a bit tired, could you please elaborate what you mean. Are we talking about Hi/Low team score markets that are offered, or total points etc.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted May 3, 2007 Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Convict Capers I think he means markets 4 highest/ lowest team score 4 the round... It's an interesting prospect... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted May 3, 2007 Author Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Convict Capers I think he means markets 4 highest/ lowest team score 4 the round... It's an interesting prospect... I'm currently talking to Ads atm. I'm looking at ways to prosper from his excellent predictions and will have some new angles which we'll look at tomorrow :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted May 3, 2007 Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Convict Capers I myself will be going for everything... HT's, FT's... Perhaps Qtrs even Especially standout 1st 1/4 teams perhaps "Go2wo's"... going 2 be interesting times... make alot of $... perhaps loose alot... lets hope 4 the former... :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted May 3, 2007 Author Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Convict Capers I myself will be going for everything... HT's' date=' FT's... Perhaps Qtrs even Especially standout 1st 1/4 teams perhaps "Go2wo's"... going 2 be interesting times... make alot of $... perhaps loose alot... lets hope 4 the former... :ok[/quote'] They are the types of angles I'm looking at too. I'll certainly be lookin to keep good records in the future :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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