NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2

[Crouch Potato]

Friday 30 March 2007
	Home	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
Brisbane Broncos v Penrith Panthers (11:00 BST)	1.60	2.45	104%	Related markets...Match Result
Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers (11:00 BST)	1.65	2.35	104%	Related markets...Match Result
Saturday 31 March 2007
	Home	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
St G-Illawarra Dragons v North Qld Cowboys (08:30 BST)	2.35	1.60	106%	Related markets...Match Result
Cronulla Sharks v South Sydney Rabbitohs (10:30 BST)	1.80	2.10	104%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time
Sunday 1 April 2007
	Home	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
Melbourne Storm v NZ Warriors (03:00 BST)	1.46	3.00	102%	Related markets...Match Result
Sydney Roosters v Manly Sea Eagles (06:00 BST)	2.55	1.52	106%	Related markets...Match Result
Monday 2 April 2007
	Home	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights (10:00 BST)	2.67	1.51	104%	Related markets...Match Result

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No prices out yet obviously, but getting the thread up nice and early. Again, a sticky from one of the great hard working Mods around here would be great :ok

[Crouch Potato]

[kevshat]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2

Again' date=' a sticky from one of the great hard working Mods around here would be great :ok[/quote'] :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Cheers Kev, top work as always :ok

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Bit Early is'nt it mate? I'm not complaining,I must say your last bit in last weeks thread was bang on the Money,a few games look intresting but by far the Rabbits against the Sharks is the standout,I would be surprised if Souths were'nt favs here. The Sharks have a decent defence but the Brains trust in there is not very good,intrestingly enough did you know that last two season,when Dykes started and Kimmorley was out the Sharks won 4 of 7,when Kimmorley was in and Dykes out they won 5 of 8,when both were in they only won 2 of 14 matches.Titans looked short on ideas at times,I think Souths will run this matcxh from start to finish,early thoughts but even as I was watching the Sharks last night I was thinking about the Sharks/Bunnies game this weekend.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Yeah mate, it's early, but by getting it up I can get it stickied nice and early :ok

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Who can moan about that,Nice one.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 I'm gonna post this now before the odds drop and they will. Take the Bunnies to beat the Sharks on Saturday night,If you are a serious punter like myself,you will need to be in quick,as these odds won't be around for long,it in my eyes is by far the banker bet of the weekend,get in there quick.

[bozz]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Only taking the Dogs this week as they need the win after loosing first 2 games. They should be pumped for this game at home, while the Titans havnt been so convincing. 1.3 at sportstab isnt bad. Other good value games in Roosters, Warriors & Tigers (all underdogs).

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Tigers should beat Parra,Very big start for the Warriors looks promising. Doggies should possibly be missed,second halves have been pathetic for the Dogs conceeding more than 36 second half points,Titans only conceeded less and have a stronger second half than first,scoring more than half their points in the second half.Danger signs on that one,Dogs should win tho. Warriors might have a shot at winning that match against the Storm,Inglis at standoff is not a good option for the Storm,but in sayiny that where else can they put him,Warriors defence has looked good,Storm are good and will be there or there abouts at the end but at the moment if anyone was going to beat them it would be the Warriors, Roosters are iffy in my eyes,probaly the one match this weekend that I would advise people to steer clear of,Manly have the Roosters for Speed and are probaly playing behind a much better forward pack,the edge would have to go to Manly and if the Roosters don't find more speed the Sea Eagles could run up a cricket score on them. I'm also wondering how the Broncos will go this Friday,The Warriors really beat them up on Sunday,trust me I was there,they got well and truly bashed,they've got no Lockyer,Parker and now Carroll who was by far their best forward on Sunday,Penrith had a easy win last Friday and will be confident of the losses of personal for the Broncos,Broncos only had 5 days rest,and to say again they got well and truly bashed.Intresting match there. Have not been impressed with the Dogs,Roosters,Raiders and Parra at all so far,all these sides look really short on smarts,they all play defence but no good just trying to win with that when you can't construct any good scoring attempts.Time will tell,for all matches this weekend at present I am leaning:Cowboys -3.5,Souths to beat Sharks,Titans +8.5,Warriors +8.5,Penrith + 9.0,Manly -6.5,and Knights to beat Canberra by more than 13. These are only early thoughts and things can change,if I mean it I will say so on Betshoot first and then i'll mention it here,Good Luck to all.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Lockyer has been named for Brisbane. Hunt is back to fullback, Hodges back to centre and Perry at half. It looks a lot better than first two weeks and the grilling the team will have gotten from Bennett should see them come out strong IMO. As for the Dogs, I feel their 2nd half performances were a result firstly of not having SBW for the whole of the first game, and then having to back up that tough performance just 5 days later. They should be fresher now and I think that will stand them in good stead. As for the Titans, I have a theory that their good 2nd half performances come off the back of their home crowd support, which will obviously be lacking this week. Agree that the Warriors handicap looks big. Storm will probably win but their odds are pathetic seeing as the Warriors are going good this year, as well as the fact the Warriors won this match last year. Not got much of an opinion on other games yet, but Cowboys should take care of the Dragons, even with Head back. As for the Eels v Tigers game, based on last week the only winner is mediocrity, though I'd lean slightly towards Parra at this stage.

[JPVD]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Hey Jumbo, Bunnies straight out then @ $1.90; no margin or line?

[pete]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Parra have been rubbish in their first two games but have Hindmarsh & Grothe back this weekend but they must be short of match practice. Wests put up good performance in first game away to Melbourne then never handled the wet conditions against Manly. Given the odds i think Wests are good value.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2

Hey Jumbo, Bunnies straight out then @ $1.90; no margin or line?

Are they in to $1.90 already??? I really don't have a margin line on this match,it's possible 13+ as Souths defence has been very good while the Sharks have been crap,but I really would'nt know,maybe ht/ft Souths?If you are looking for some good odds?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 JPVD, hold off and wait to see how the weather plays. If there's a bit of rain about then 1-12 should be a good play. Jumbo, you heard any team news for Brisbane? I'm hearing a couple of possible changes different to that of the side that's been named

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 I'm steering well clear of that match and have not looked or even bothered about finding anytinhg out on that match. While the Broncos should win that match,i'm nowhere near as optimistic about it as you are.The Broncos have seriously under performed this season,they are really missing a forward leader with Webcke gone and now no Carroll.Thron and Carlaw are really underperforming,Hunt played himselk to a stand still here last weekend as did Tate.The Panthers had a relativly easy match last week compared to what the Broncos faced over here.I know you are a Broncos fan,but I would exercise caution,I could be way off the mark which is why I won't touch this match,but Penriths forwards are looking alot stonger than your Broncos,last week Hunt was hitting with more venom than his forward pack and that as well will of taken it's toll on him for this match.Once again the Broncs could well win and win well,but alot of sides including the Broncos do not have a good record of backing up after a hard match with the Warriors and they had a hard match against them just last weekend. If I was you I would try to look at this match like an outsider not a supportter,look for negatives in the Broncos,trust me over here the negatives far outweighed their positives,The Broncos marker defence was getting split,there hurried plays that they are normally so good,were not working,their sliding defence was sliding to far,In all honesty the Broncos should of really lost that match by at least 20,the only players showing any sort of commitment were Hunt and Cinoveciva. and Carroll.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 You could well be right mate, will have to think about it some more. Funny thing is I generally actually read Broncos matches better. Last week I had absolutely no hesitation backing the Warriors on the line, but I get a similar sort of feeling about us this week. Saving grace may well be the fact that the prices on offer are pretty horrible.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Mate,I could be completly off the mark but as usual time will tell.

[bozz]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Just looking at Sharks vs Rabbitohs form: Souths have conceeded 6pts each in there first 2 games, while Cronulla conceeded 0pts first game & conceeded 18pts to the Titans in the GC. Something tells me it might end up unders as both teams have good defenses. The Sharks seemed a bit flat on Monday night against the Titans & they often lack creativity. If the Sharks can stop the Bunnies from scoring heaps then it may point to unders. Just waiting for the game total now!

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 What do you think the total might be set at? 44??

[bozz]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Well, Rabbitohs blew Parra 31-6 so im hoping the game total is anywhere like 45.5 or 46.5, but i think it will be 42.5 or 43.5!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 The line will almost certainly be 43.5pts IMO

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 I have no solid opinions on tonights matches,but for excitement purposes I will take a couple of margin bets for fun. Broncos vs Panthers:Broncos 1-12 $3.10 NZ(TAB) The fact that the Broncos are playing Penrith at home is reason enough for me to follow them,I'm sure the Broncos will get a decent crowd and they will help them over the line tonight.I have not been impressed with the Broncos at all this season and with Carroll out others will have to step up tonight,namely Thorn and Carlaw,both these guys are man mountains and should impose themselves more on other sides,some thing that they have not been doing at all.Some of Penriths trys were very soft last weekend but the Broncos will be a different kettle of fish to that sub par performance by the Dogs last Friday.Both these sides have great players but the Broncos probaly edge the Panthers in the brains stakes,Lockyer,Hunt and Tate can turn a game on their own,and for me that is the difference in this match. Eels vs Tigers:Eels 1-12 $3.10 NZ(TAB) I was leaning towards the Tigers but to be really honest about it,I would prefer the Eels,Hindmarsh and Grothe are back and Hindmarsh's apperance alone is a big boost to the Eels,he will strenghten up the middle for Parra which has been missing and his overall work rate will help even the load on the other forwards namely Cayless and Wagon who have both been targeted and made to work hard in their first two matches.I've got no idea what the weather is like in Sydney,but if it's raining then hit the Eels hard as the Tigers are far to lateral for wet weather.I am or was a very big Balmain fan from the Glory days of the late 80's,however the Tigers are a free running side and over their first two matches they look to be trying to play structured League and that won't really work for them,size is a factor for them,they should stick more to dummy runners and run with two forwards looking for an offload. Also there are major differences for these two in who they have played this term to date,The Eels have played arguably two of the best sides so far in the Warriors and the Bunnies,whilst the Tigers have played a very unsettled Storm side and a Sea Eagles outfit with key players out and lost both as have the Eels,but I think that Parra has played harder sides than the Tigers and for that reason i'll back the Eels in a thriller. Remeber these are just for excitement,nothing else.I'm not gonna be an idiot like last week and get them wrong,there is money to be made but later on in the Weekend,in fact tomorrow,Good Luck to all.

[bozz]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 No rain tonight in Parramatta, just dry conditions. Grothe will not be playing tonight for Parra. Not bet for me this one, although Tigers is good value. Parra will have Nathan Hindmarsh back but his form will be a questionmark. I would've tipped Tigers if Prince was in the team but Im slightly leaning towards Parra, being first game at home & Hindmarsh can get his players behind him. :ok

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Whats wrong with Grothe now,he's listed over here,is that a late pull out or was he never actually named?

[JPVD]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Hey guys; sorry i never post any info; but read your posts with great newbie interest. I'm going straight out Eels to win (8 points) and by 1-12 (2 points)... Any excitement one-pointer bets to keep me in the game? Cheers guys, all excellent info here! elsewhere it seems to be forumites squabbling. JPVD. .

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Brisbane v Penrith Brisbane Broncos Karmichael Hunt, Steve Michaels, Brent Tate, Justin Hodges, Darius Boyd, Darren Lockyer ©, Shane Perry, Dane Carlaw, Shaun Berrigan, Petero Civoniceva, Sam Thaiday, Brad Thorn, Greg Eastwood. Subs: Nick Kenny, Ben Hannant, Andrew Lomu, Ian Lacey. Penrith Panthers Rhys Wesser, Michael Gordon, Michael Jennings, Luke Lewis, Luke Rooney, Peter Wallace, Craig Gower, Joel Clinton, Luke Priddis, Frank Puleta, Frank Pritchard, Tony Puletua, Trent Waterhouse. Subs: Junior Moors, Nathan Smith, Matthew Bell, Paul Aiton, Tim Grant (one to be omitted). As discussed earlier this game is a bit of a danger, but if you were forced to pick a winner you'd prefer to be on Brisbane. Bennett was livid with the performance last week and has given them a grilling in training, and as such I expect Brisbane to come out hard. First game against the Cowboys I thought Civoniceva and Carlaw played well and with Carroll also out and Lockyer IMO not fully fit, I think it will be these two who need to lift most, so they will be the focus point of a couple of bets. Still mulling over a couple of other bets, a couple of team/game score bets look ok but the value in them looks pretty nominal, so I'll probably just have a couple of Friday Night Multis. Bets (speculative interest, nothing too substantial): Petero Civoniceva MOTM @ 21 Centrebet (3/10) Dane Carlaw MOTM @ 41 TAB (1/10) Steve Michaels FTS @ 13 TAB (1/10) Regardless of basically any other factor that exists in tonights game, Civoniceva @ 21 for MOTM is quite simply ludicrous. He was IMO best Bronco on field against the Cowboys and there is nobody in Brisbane's forward pack who I expect to be hurting more than Civo. He is also Brisbane's best forward and with no Carroll, Parker or Stagg I fully expect him to lift. I could have sworn he was getting MOTM against the Cowboys had Brisbane of won, and at 21 in a game I expect Brisbane to win, I'm on everytime. TAB has him at $11 and this is a much more accurate price.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 Parramatta Eels Luke Burt, Jarryd Hayne, Ben Smith, Timana Tahu, Eric Grothe, Brett Finch, Tim Smith, Nathan Cayless ©, Mark Riddell, Aaron Cannings, Nathan Hindmarsh, Chad Robinson, Daniel Wagon. Subs: PJ Marsh, Josh Cordoba, Ian Hindmarsh, Todd Lowrie, Feleti Mateo (one to be omitted). Wests Tigers Brett Hodgson ©, Shannon McDonnell, Dean Collis, Daniel Fitzhenry, Jason Moodie, Benji Marshall, John Morris, Keith Galloway, Robbie Farah, Bryce Gibbs, Ben Galea, Todd Payten, Liam Fulton. Subs: Dene Halatu, Chris Heighington, Taniela Tuiaki, Bronson Harrison. Two teams who are yet to record a win this year and both teams have been nothing short of pathetic in their matches last round. Aside from that, I really don't have much to say, so I'll just stick up my bet and advise that with the mediocrity on display it's probably a leave alone game. Bet: Tigers Team Score 11-20 @ 2.40 TAB (4/10) Friday night is a great night for this bet, whenever I fancy a team to lose by a small margin, I back that team to score 11-20pts. Here, I fancy Eels so the team score bet is that of the Tigers. The last 4 games at Parramatta have seen the Tigers score 11-20pts.

[Dingotech]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 I've backed the Tigers with the 4.5 start and I've backed the Panthers with 5.5 start. My logic is fairly simple, the Tigers played bad last week because of the rain it really doesn't suit their attacking style, I can see them stepping back up and playing with a bit of flair. The Eels have been absolutely terrible, Hagan is not a coach, the only reason the Knights won games under him was because of Joey. Therefore I'm taking a team with some form (with a start) against a team that is going busted. For the Brisbane game, I cannot see how Lockyer could be at full fitness, the injury was looking to be a 6 week stint, he will be down on fitness IMO. Apart from Lockyer the Broncos have a couple of other injury worries as well, couple that with the fact that the Panthers have the start and it's an easy bet for me. Good luck whatever your plays guys. :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 3: March 30 - April 2 And mainly for excitement (as there doesn't appear to be a great deal of good games this weekend), but also because I see some value in it, I've put the following 6 margin selections into 4 folds: Brisbane 1-12 Parramatta 1-12 Cowboys 1-12 Souths 1-12 Storm 1-12 Manly 1-12 Odds all range from 3.10 to 3.35.