NRL Round 2: March 23-26

[Crouch Potato]

Friday 23 March 2007
	Home	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged." align="center">BPP
Penrith Panthers v Canterbury Bulldogs (08:30 GMT)	2.60	1.54	104%	Related markets...Match Result
St G-Illawarra Dragons v Newcastle Knights (08:30 GMT)	1.57	2.65	102%	Related markets...Match Result
Saturday 24 March 2007
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Wests Tigers v Manly Sea Eagles (07:30 GMT)	1.67	2.25	105%	Related markets...Match Result
Canberra Raiders v Melbourne Storm (10:30 GMT)	4.60	1.20	106%	Related markets...Match Result
North Qld Cowboys v Sydney Roosters (11:30 GMT)	1.21	4.60	105%	Related markets...Match Result
Sunday 25 March 2007
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NZ Warriors v Brisbane Broncos (05:00 BST)	1.48	2.67	106%	Related markets...Match Result
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Parramatta Eels (06:00 BST)	1.82	2.12	103%	Related markets...Match ResultHalf-time/Full-time
Monday 26 March 2007
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Titans v Cronulla Sharks (10:00 BST)	1.70	2.26	104%	Related markets...Match Result

----------------------------------------------------------------------- Sonny Bill Williams has taken the early plea and will be suspended for 2 weeks. Johns is likely to miss just one week. Other notable absences include Chris Walker for 6 weeks. A full list of injuries can be found here: http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/nrl.php Do bare in mind it is more of a guide than gospel. As far as long term bets go, I've just taken Wade McKinnon ($67) for leading tryscorer this year. Warriors look like they will go far this season and a support player like him shouldn't be anywhere near as big as $67, particularly when Lyon is $13 and someone like Darius Boyd is $34. $67s with the Aus TAB. Also, if any mod is reading, is there any chance we could get this stickied as last week's thread seemed to generate a fair bit of interest?

[Crouch Potato]

[Barty_uk]

Re: NRL Round 2 - March 23 to 26 Im looking forward to Jumbo's "words of wisdom" this week....Hopefully he can make me some $$....Honestly guy's....if he post's anything about Rugby League up i suggest you follow him!! I hope i don't jinx him here, but he know's his stuff.... Im done talking about God now :lol :D :tongue2 ;) :notworthy

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 All the tipsters on here know their stuff Barty,not just I. I am really looking forward to seeing everyonrs looks this weekend,still no odds out yet,so we wait and watch. Nice look there CP on McKinnion as he is an ex Brian Smith coached player you know your stuff as he's been trained to back up the big runners,in last weeks match he was backing up all game long,he is a very real chance at top try scorer this year with the off loading forwards at the Warriors,nice call mate.

[kevshat]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26

Also' date=' if any mod is reading, is there any chance we could get this stickied as last week's thread seemed to generate a fair bit of interest?[/quote'] :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Cheers Kev, and Jumbo too for the kind words. Prices are now up, ignore the times for them listed unless you are in the UK. Australian TAB has opened up the Warriors -5.5 on the line, albeit at 1.85, with Brisbane +5.5 at 1.95. Regardless, most of the online bookies are going -6.5 to -8, so -5.5 is a generous line. I've taken it was a high degree of confidence. The line for the North Queensland game has been set at -12.5 which is pretty big. I think they'll cover it fairly easily but a single digit handicap would have made the bet stronger. The Melbourne Storm Handicap is also set at -12.5 which I think is pretty poor. They're still a good chance of covering it but considering the line is -12.5 for both the Cowboys and Storm, I jsut feel the Cowboys bet would be just that much better.

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 On first appearances, see value in the Sharks +3.5, Roosters +12.5, Raiders +12.5 ... That start the Raiders are recieving is surely a record high .. I challenge anyone to find a game in the past where Canberra has been given double digits at home... Think results tend to zig zag this time of year so the likes of the Raiders and Roosters will be desperate to get off zero against opponents who've already chalked up wins ... For that reason I also like Wests conceeding a small start against Manly, who look like they'll be missing a couple of key players including the 'Ox' Orford ...

[kiwimike]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Hey Lads, sportingodds are paying the warriors at $10 , but the good thing is they have 1/4 odds for a 1,2 or 3 placing, i think this has value and i have taken the warriors to win the prem. or place 1,2 or 3 for 5 units. They also have Brisbane at $13 plus 1/4 odds for a place. Does this sound like a good deal for last years winner ??...i tend to think so. Your thoughts guys ??

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 I like the bet of Brisbane to win the premiership, but I honestly expect us to get beat by a big margin this week. If this eventuates, then next week the odds should be even higher. That is when I will be moving in as Penrith and the Roosters games follow - games I think Brisbane will win. As for the Warriors, they play the Storm the week after Brisbane, and for that reason I would be reluctant to play the Warriors at their current price. They should be a good bet to win this week though.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 I was expecting more,but it looks like the Bookmakers have done their homework,some very one sided lines considering it's only week two. At present I temd to disagree and see no value in the Raiders +12.5 or the Roosters +12.5. I would fancy Manly ahead of the Tigers who last week played against a very ordinary Storm side,with players adjusting to new positions. Bookies seem to be on the money at present,the only matches I can see with some value are the Sharks and the Bunnies,to early in the week to tell,some more digging and i'll see what i'll come up with,I don't bet for the sake of betting,so i'll look around and see whats up. The only match that looks solid is the Dragons at present. I'll be back,but I won't say anything solid untill I post on Betshoot but I will stop in to see how you are all going,I tend to wait untill Friday am to make my selections,good luck guys.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 On second look Mike, that bet is for the minor premiership only, not the Premiership itself, in which case I heavily favour the Storm.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 After reading that last bit,the Warriors look strong but can be dodgy,in my opinion the best bet for NZers is try scorers,look for Mckinnion,Vatuvei and maybe a few more,no where near as solid as picking a winner,but with the Kiwi boys in the Broncs you never know how they are going to go.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26

After reading that last bit' date='the Warriors look strong but can be dodgy,in my opinion the best bet for NZers is try scorers,look for Mckinnion,Vatuvei and maybe a few more,no where near as solid as picking a winner,but with the Kiwi boys in the Broncs you never know how they are going to go.[/quote'] Agreed here. If they put up Hodges against McKinnon I'll definitely be taking that. I know over there in NZ they offer anytime scorers which would be a better option, though unfortunately it's not the case here. As for the winner, I jsut feel the Warriors strengths will be too much for this Lockyer-less side, though the absence of Louis Anderson is a bit of a blow.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 I agree CP,I'm confident of the Warriors getting up but the margin is a worry,the biggest game for the Warriors and always will be the Broncs,without Lockyer there it is wide open for the Warriors to win,but the start worrys me at present,at first glance you'd think they should cover even 8 points but it's just to iffy for me,13 and over is a real possibility and over here it's at $2.70 which just go's to show that even the bookies are not to sure what to mark this game at.

[Citizen Kane]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Personally going to take the winnings and leave the Warriors this week and just enjoy the game. I liked the look of St George this year and after week one see some value in backing them against the Knights who even though it's early in the season may struggle to back up on last weeks effort. Inpressed also with how Souths went but want to see them back it up before I could start backing them with any confidence. Also tempted to back the Titans but they also may struggle to get up after last week and too early for me to have confidence in them producing a consistant game week in week out to risk higher stakes. Therefore just going with a small double on those games. Week 2: 2pts St George @ $1.55 (NZTab) 1pt St George -6 @ 1.91 (Centrebet) 0.25pt Souths/Titans @ 3.08 (Centrebet) Cheers CK

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 I like the look of the Dragons too. The Knights' record without both Buderus and Johns is very poor, and although they essentially won without these two last week, the home crowd advantage and the extra man played a significant part. I will decide closer to kick off. Like Jumbo I like to bet late in the week, but made an exception for the Warriors line because I don't believe the price will hold.

[kiwimike]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26

On second look Mike' date=' that bet is for the minor premiership only, not the Premiership itself, in which case I heavily favour the Storm.[/quote'] I guess there is a blind devotion in my bet also hoping that the warriors can go all the way and win the minor prem and then onto the grand final. :hope Go the Kiwis! (even though theres heaps of aussies in our team, i don't mind:ok...lol..)

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Anyone have any news on Prince for the Titans this weekend? News reports are saying he may be out and if thats the case there is some real value on the Sharks.The Sharks new defecive pattern was great last weekend tho in saying that it was hard to know if they were that good or Penrith were just that bad. Also starting to find some value in the Dogs to cover against the Panthers,but will post on that match tomorrow morning. Already tipped the Dragons -6.5 on Betshoot,possibly a tad bit to high but the Dragons confidence will be soaring after last weekends effort,I think. The games at night so it won't be 30 degrees,I really don't see the knights forwards matching the Dragons at all and if Gidley is the Knights main man,it does'nt look good for them at all,Gidley won't get as much space this week against the Dragons,who I bet you all will be very entusiastic after their win without Gasnier,Young and Head. I'd say if the Dragons score early the Knights heads will hang and it could be game over by half time,the Dragons forwards were so good last week,Ryles and Creagh and even Woolford were just fantastic,if they can do what they did last weekend to a Titans side with all their playmakers in imagine what they could do to a Knights side with all their playmakers out? I must also say my players of the round last weekend were Creagh(Dragons)Thurston(Cowboys)Asotasi,Williams and Vagana(Souths) and Price(Warriors)

[Punto Banco]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 I realise that because i am a Parramatta fan my opinion is perhaps bias but i do believe that it would be quite possible for parramatta do pull a number on the bunnies this weekend, my reasoning is as follows: One- there is so much hype around the bunnies that no-one can see straight, headlines such as "The Bunnies are Back" cloud people from the reality that while things look promising for them last week they beat the team for which i believe (as do many others i speak to) is well in the running for the spoon. Two- Parramatta as they so often do played a game of two halves, even with so many personel changes in the squad (to their detriment...). However this was over in the kiwi land and with a particularly great looking warriors team this year parramattas new team and new coach with hindi out never stood much of a chance... Anyway... this is highly specualitve and in all reality is probably not worth betting on however at around 3.40- 3.70 for parra to win 1-12 i might place a little something on the game (if almost any other team was playing the bunnies this weak i would be betting hard against them). P.S this thinking could be completely incorrect and the bunnies could use their confidence from last week too thrash parra 42-10!!!!!!

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 I forgot to say hello to citezen kane,Mr flamboyant and makdaddysportsbet(good name bro)Good luck to all. Makdaddysportsbet(i'm gonna call you mdsb,alright)Your reasoning is not to far fetched really,Parra played miles better in the second half and they had no possesion in the first,so you might have something there,at present i'm still leaning towards the Bunnies because their defence was just outstanding and the Bunnie Forwards led by Asotasi were very,very good,but time will tell,welcome along anyway,hope to see all of you around for the season.

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Titans injury update .. Scott Prince had an MRI on his right ankle today but the results weren't known this afternoon and he's still touch and go for monday night against the Sharks ... Preston Campbell trained at halfback and will slot in there if Prince is out .. Matt Peterson moves onto the wing to replace Chris Walker ...

[maj69er]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Good luck guys. For those of us in the uk, it seems as tho setanta sports has NRL this year showing 3 games a week.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Thanks Mr.Flamboyant

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Barty,if you are out there,I can't get into Betshoot..

[Barty_uk]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 whats wrong with it mate??

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Dammit now my E-mail address will be up there all day,how embarassing,no admins to delete it,LOL. Sweet as mate we've spoken now so thats all that matters,Good Luck,sorry to all for doing this on this forum,won't happen again.Apoligies to all.

[Jumbo]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Heres my selections for tonights matches. Bulldogs -6.5 against the Panthers 7/10 St George -6.5 against the Knights 8/10 I must give credit to the Bookmakers this week who really have done their work well with the lines on these games,they have exceeded themselves and to be honest either of these tips could fall short by 1 point. Panthers vs Bulldogs... Only short looks here if you want a more indepth look go to Betshoot and have a look. The Dogs look to have the advantage in the Centres and Forwards and on the interchange,I would think they would be disappointed with their efforts letting a big lead slip and would want to make their wrongs right tonoght. The Panthers were just plain BAD last weekend and although they should improve I don't think they can improve enough to beat an upset Dogs pack out for a bit of revenge. St George vs Knights. Pretty simple here really,the Knights are missing their two playmakers and have Gidley and Mullen there to run the ship,I doubt that will be enough. The Dragons will not want to let a great away win last weekend be overshadowed by a home loss to the Knights a team that they have historically dominated in recent times and thats even when Jhons and Buderus were involved. Cooper played well last weekend and if Tighe does'nt mark up on him then it could very well be goodnight by the major break. The Dragons forwards are better than the Knights and I just feel that the Dragons have that little bit extra in the right parts of the field,their interchange is stonger than the Knights as well and thats why i'll be taking the Dragons to win well tonight. I look forward to seeing everyone elses opinions and wish everyone well this weekend with their selections,Good Luck to all.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 Penrith ($2.50) v Bulldogs ($1.50) Handicap: +/- 6.5 Penrith Panthers Rhys Wesser, Luke Rooney, Luke Lewis, Michael Gordon, Nick Youngquest, Peter Wallace, Craig Gower, Frank Puletua, Luke Priddis, Joel Clinton, Frank Pritchard, Tony Puletua, Trent Waterhouse. Subs: Junior Moors, Nathan Smith, Paul Aiton, Matthew Cross, Brendan Worth (one to be omitted). Bulldogs Luke Patten, Hazem El Masri, Darryl Millard, Willie Tonga, Trent Cutler, Daniel Holdsworth, Ben Roberts, Mark O'Meley, Adam Perry, Willie Mason, Nick Kouparitsas, Andrew Ryan [c], Reni Maitua. Subs: Dallas McIlawain, Chris Armit, Kane Cleal, Jarrad Hickey. Last week's performance by Penrith was complete and utter shit. They didn't even manage to get on the scoreboard as the Sharks dominated. The Dogs on the otherhand were quite unlucky to lose Sonny Bill Williams in the 4th minute, and it was his sending off that ultimately cost the Doggies, who went down by a point after leading by 22. I have little doubt Penrith will improve because after last week's efforts there really can't be a poorer level of performance. Based on the Dogs first half last week you would think that they should win easily, but they tired dramatically in the second half and I think that may play a part here. They played just 5 days ago and defended with just 12men for 76 minutes. Guys like Mason and Ryan were very heavily involved and I wouldn't be surprised if that will play some part in tonight's match. I don't see Penrith winning, but the fact that they will improve and my uncertainty about just how fresh the Dogs will be means that I will avoid full-time margin or handicap bets for this one. Bets: Bulldogs Team Score 21-30 @ 3.1 TAB (4/10) Bulldogs to lead at HT by 5-8pts @ 5.25 (2/10) Willie Mason MOTM @ 12 Centrebet (1/10)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 St George v Newcastle Handicap: -/+ 6.5 St.George-Illawarra Dragons 1. Josh Morris, 2. Luke MacDougall, 3. Keith Lulia, 4. Matt Cooper, 5. Wes Naiqama, 6. Richard Williams, 7. Ben Hornby, 8. Dan Hunt, 9. Simon Woolford, 10. Jason Ryles, 11. Ashton Sims, 12. Beau Scott, 13. Ben Creagh. Subs: 14. Adam Peek, 15. Danny Wicks, 16. Corey Payne, 17. Tony Caine. Newcastle Knights 1. Kurt Gidley, 2. James McManus, 3. George Carmont, 4. Brad Tighe, 5. Adam MacDougall, 6. Daniel Abraham, 7. Jarrod Mullen, 8. Josh Perry, 9. Terence Seu Seu, 10. Adam Woolnough, 11. Steve Simpson ©, 12. Clint Newton, 13. Kirk Reynoldson. Subs: 14. Todd Polglase, 15. Cory Paterson, 16. Matthew White, 17. Daniel Tolar, 18. Jesse Royal, 19. Riley Brown, 20. Akuila Uate, 21. Kade Snowden (four to be omitted). Dragons are coming off a good win over the Titans in what was surely a very tough match. They did this without Head, Gasnier or Young which will surely be a confidence boost, although all 3 players are missing again. For the Knights they had a very close win agains the Dogs but will tonight be without key players Andrew Johns and Danny Buderus. When both of these players are absent for Newcastle they very rarely win and I don't see that changing tonight. However, I think the Knights might keep it fairly tight and with the Dragons playmaking stocks also at a reduced level I think 1-12 is a better bet than 13+. Last year around 50% of team scores in a Friday night game were 11-20 and the Knights tonight look a good canditate for this play. Bets: Dragons 1-12 @ 3.4 Betfair (5/10) Newcastle Team Score 11-20 @ 2.5 TAB (5/10)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NRL Round 2: March 23-26 For those wishing to play the Bulldogs on the handicap, you'll probably find Centrebet of interest. They have the Dogs at -5.5, which though just a point less than -6.5 elsewhere, is much kinder given the ease at which a 6 point margin could occur.