My last stand at Cheltenham (v2007)

[dontbegreat]

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2:00 Chel
Selection	Degas Art (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	VC Bet @ 15.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Last one to defeat Katchit (currently favorite and 2nd favorite for the JCB). Currently on a 3 race win streak defeating Katchit, Pouvoir, and Purple Moon. Has the speed as its won a Listed Event on the flat defeating a Godolphin Into The Dark to end its flat career. Can win under pressure and 14/1 is a good each way having shown it can win against one of the favorites to win this event.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2:00 Chel (Bets365 BOG)
Selection	Alqaab (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 26.00 (Back)
Reasoning	2:00 Chel Alqaab I like this newbie to make a good start in Graded company. Already held on to finish by 7 and 4 lengths in 4th then 2nd to Duty (9/1 for this event) and Convincing (Grade 2&3 winners this year). Ran to 28L clear of 2nd LTO (3Mar) and could be one to disrupt the market leaders at the end. Bet365 "Best Odds Guaranteed"

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2:00 Chel
Selection	Mountain (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Expekt @ 10.00 (Back)
Reasoning	2:00 Chel Mountain Very possible the Jonjo/AP team can win the first with this. Only raced one over hurdles (won) but came from Aidan O’Brien where it ran in 9 stakes (won once and second twice). Will know how to go fast and comes from a team than can win.

[dontbegreat]

Re: My last stand at Cheltenham (v2007)

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2:35 Chel (Bet365 BOG)
Selection	Chief Dan George (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 21.00 (Back)
Reasoning	2:35 Chel Chief Dan George One to have the most win streak coming into this with its last two being Grade 2’s (Novices). The switch to its current yard has its place-titis ‘fixed’ because the form for current yard is F.1.1.1.1. Yard looks to have found the correct screws for this to win and could be the first two place/win outside the price of 10/1. Bet365 "Best Odds Guaranteed"

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2:35 Chel
Selection	Mr Strachan (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingodds @ 67.00 (Back)
Reasoning	2:35 Chel Mr Strachan Not been in many high prized events but has raced well for its short career. The last to be defeated by Kanpai (6th straight on 18Nov) when 2nd by 1/2L. Just about everything will be new, such as distance and speed. Appeared in good shape LTO when winning by 33L over heavy ground. Been on heavy ground the last two and this Gd-Sft might keep it in the game.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2:35 Chel
Selection	Wichita Lineman
Strength	10/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betdaq @ 2.55 (Back)
Reasoning	2:35 Chel Wichita Lineman Has to be favored despite many favorites failing to produce their expectations. One of the best that’ll likely contend with the last two here good for a second and a win (10th in debut). Won three of last 4 with the only defeat coming against Massinis Maguire. The second place finishers in the three wins are Silverburn, Sir Jimmy Shand, and Tiday Bay. One of the best this season and could be #2 for Jonjo and AP.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3:15 Chel
Selection	Cane Brake (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingodds @ 34.00 (Back)
Reasoning	3:15 Chel Cane Brake Trained by the same as Kicking King (2005 winner) and in good form heading to this contest being 2.1.1 in three starts this season (only last two for current yard). Can go against the testing conditions today and should be able to challenge. Better over fences with 6 of 7 wins coming from there.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3:15 Chel
Selection	Kauto Star
Strength	10/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	VC Bet @ 2.63 (Back)
Reasoning	3:15 Chel Kauto Star Been too good all season, well, since falling here last year (won all 5 after). Has won against many good contenders that are well known. Its event in better conditions than when it entered the Queen Mother chase last year. Worries on the jumping but its not a problem its team cannot see and it is fixable. I think it can handle the track much better after a year with all the accomplishments it gained.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3:15 Chel
Selection	State Of Play (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 8.50 (Back)
Reasoning	3:15 Chel State Of Play Gone well for this jockey (1.1.5.1.1. since Oct05) and over fences, only SOP’s events over fences. Won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury LTO with Juveignuer 2nd. Has the ability to jump well and that is something to like here. With it being out since November, chance for it being fresh is over 50%. With just 4 races since Oct05, I think this event is something the yard knows it can battle for.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3:15 Chel
Selection	Turpin Green (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 67.00 (Back)
Reasoning	3:15 Chel Turpin Green Comes from a good yard and has chance despite looking like an event out of its league- currently. Seasons form is 1.PU.3 and that doesn’t look appealing to take into this race. But, with good outings prior to its first Festival event, I think it can run a sound race. Finished 5th for the Jewson last year. Will be more mature and experienced this time around.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	4:00 Chel
Selection	Cobreces (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 26.00 (Back)
Reasoning	4:00 Chel Cobreces Jockey had nearly had win #1 at this course but had one who should be diagnosed with cantrun4milesand1furlong for falling late in the race. Snowden again, has one it can win on here. Jockey’s been with this for 7 of its last 8 (won 3 events). Price is decent and has a jockey that can win.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	4:00 Chel
Selection	Control Man (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 26.00 (Back)
Reasoning	4:00 Chel Control Man Ex Pipe horse that still capable of running its old ways. Won in points for this rider and been able to put some good shows here (1.3.3.13 in 4 starts). Will be fresh into this from just racing 19days ago in points.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	4:40 Chel
Selection	Jacks Craic (Each-Way)
Strength	3/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Blue Square @ 17.00 (Back)
Reasoning	4:40 Chel Jacks Craic In winning form this time last year and slowly getting into the same stride this year. Did finish 4th in only start here – ran too freely early that paid for a late demise. The trainer had a runner compete in Class 1 for the first time, or worse Graded even for the first time and finished 9th out of 23. Definite outsider but not the worse here but hoping for the form of last year to come late, for today.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	4:40 Chel
Selection	Tanikos (Each-Way)
Strength	2/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingodds @ 67.00 (Back)
Reasoning	4:40 Chel Tanikos This could be the day for Henderson. Tanikos does not have a good record here 11th and 8th but comes from a yard that knows how to get them ready for this course. 5 of the last 7 have weighed at 10-0 to 10-1 and this one is at 10-0 for today. Trainer also had the winner here last year @ 20/1 so this selection is not too far..dark side is that 7 of the last 8 winner priced at 8/1 or less.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	5:20 Chel
Selection	Fair Along (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 9.00 (Back)
Reasoning	5:20 Chel Fair Along The trainer believes this has what it takes for another one. Finished 2nd to My Way De Solzen for the Arkle (13Mar) and very likely it can run well again. Drops in weights and back to hurdles is not a problem to go with the distance of the same as last time with 1 furlong more. Richard Johnson is riding too well to oppose this and priced well after being 100/30 favorite for the Arkle.

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	5:20 Chel
Selection	Ouninpohja (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	16/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	VC Bet @ 7.50 (Back)
Reasoning	5:20 Chel Ouninpohja Has the speed with its flat form of 11 1st of 2nd from 12 starts to end that career (3rd is the other). Started well over hurdles being 1.3.2 and still plenty of room to improve on. Best for some margin in competition since being away from the Flat but will manage for having been in Listed events (flat).