paddzer Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 I have been betting for a long time and I know there are many theories as to how to pick football teams to win money, but call me thick many I just cant get my head around so I have been trying to find a simple formula which all can understand and hopefully beat our mutual friend the bookie. My method has been running now for approx 6 weeks and I have had healthy returns for four of those. ( lost my standard stake for two of those. ) My Principles : I only back Home wins I never back a team if they have lost their last game I never back against a team who won their last game If a team sacks their manager and re-instates a new one I will not back against them. I always try and back in Form against bad form Team news is essential You might say well that really narrows down the search, well take last saturday for example there were no less than 5 teams that fitted that criteria. This is particularly high, personally I am happy if I can find 3. Sats examples were Stirling, Queens Park, Chelsea, M K Dons (4 draws in a row but last 2 they really should have won ) Rochdale I ususally do a few doubles, and maybe a treble generally with one banker in all bets, for example last week Queens Park were in all my lines. This has to be water tight and well thankfully it turned out that way. In order to successfully keep picking winners it is essential to have up-to-date team news, I have found this really beneficial espicially in Scotland which I have my greatest success. I search for the info myself but it would be so much easier if there was a thread within the footie section allocated just for team news with an emphasis on whos important thats out, we all know the premership players so we can work that out for ourselves but 3rd Division scotland I'm lost. If anyone has any ideas I'd like to hear them , like I said this theory does work but many hands make light work and I believe with the right work this could yield serious dividends. :ok await your comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie not sure it's on topic for sports banter Paddzer I'll move it to Systems and Strategy. Seems sensible enough though :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie This actually looks quite promising already, if you ask me. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddzer Posted March 5, 2007 Author Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie Thanks for the vote of confidence, but it much depends on team news to make it work properly. One of the main reasons why I feel it is pivital to have a thread just for this eg Chelsea is the perfect example, before u would have lumped on them almost reguardless , without John Terry we think twice, Arsneal without Henry, Utd without Ronaldo and the scenerio goes on. Can someone start this thread within the footie section as I dont know how ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie sounds promising - might be worth comparing the stats for with team news/without team news. the example you give of terry being out is enough to put many punters off and thus the price can drift (esp. on the exchanges) and so may also be profitiable in the long run. Good luck with this mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddzer Posted March 5, 2007 Author Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie Agree, there may still be value, but this doesnt tend to move the markets in the lower leagues but only those that we really know, every team has their own JT and this is more were i am coming from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie For example i don't calculate for teams that are in a big Winning/Loosing Streak. Hope we come with many ideeas to make something good. What you guys think about this: Recent Form General...Last Total Games [3 4 5 6] ? Recent Form Home/Away...Last Home/Away Games [2 3 4] ? I wait your opinions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie I have been betting for a long time and I know there are many theories as to how to pick football teams to win money, but call me thick many I just cant get my head around so I have been trying to find a simple formula which all can understand and hopefully beat our mutual friend the bookie. My method has been running now for approx 6 weeks and I have had healthy returns for four of those. ( lost my standard stake for two of those. ) My Principles : I only back Home wins You might say well that really narrows down the search, well take last saturday for example there were no less than 5 teams that fitted that criteria. This is particularly high, personally I am happy if I can find 3. Sats examples were Stirling, Queens Park, Chelsea, M K Dons (4 draws in a row but last 2 they really should have won ) Rochdale Chelsea were away, so did not qualify! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddzer Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie Chelsea were away' date=' so did not qualify![/quote'] Correct - Sorry , had Chelsea, Tottenham Scunthorpe and Rangers in my head on another Thread I am working on, and it was late and got mixed up. Thanks for the reminder only hope your as quick to post your suggestions and formula in the future. This is probably one of the reasons why so many people view the site but dont post their threads, as I read more guys having a pop over silly mistakes when someone is just trying to explain some logic, my examples were only to make the thread understandable, they were not pivitol to the arguement. Sorry to complain but I believe this formula is a runner, it has worked for me and with the proper team news being submitted throughout the leagues I know this will reap returns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddzer Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie Chelsea were away' date=' so did not qualify![/quote'] Correct - Sorry , had Chelsea, Tottenham Scunthorpe and Rangers in my head on another Thread I am working on, and it was late and got mixed up. Thanks for the reminder only hope your as quick to post your suggestions and formula in the future. This is probably one of the reasons why so many people view the site but dont post their threads, as I read more guys having a pop over silly mistakes when someone is just trying to explain some logic, my examples were only to make the thread understandable, they were not pivitol to the arguement. Sorry to complain but I believe this formula is a runner, it has worked for me and with the proper team news being submitted throughout the leagues I know this will reap returns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie Correct - Sorry , had Chelsea, Tottenham Scunthorpe and Rangers in my head on another Thread I am working on, and it was late and got mixed up. Thanks for the reminder only hope your as quick to post your suggestions and formula in the future. This is probably one of the reasons why so many people view the site but dont post their threads, as I read more guys having a pop over silly mistakes when someone is just trying to explain some logic, my examples were only to make the thread understandable, . Well then you can understand when a kerryman says to you that these guys "who have a pop" have been working many hours a week, week in, week out working on these stats and WILL point out an error because they believe its ESSENTIAL to the basis of your debate.Its not a critism - its just a pointer. Nobody gave out to you about making a wrong selection at any time just simply pointed out that the selection didnt qualify.....get over it, Bedlam simply pointed out an error in the context of the thread and it has 2 significant meanings for anybody serious about making money a) your data was incorrect to somebody who is following this.. b) M K Dons (4 draws in a row but last 2 they really should have won ) Why??? Firstly - they had drawn THREE in a row. Secondly, they should have been beaten by both Notts Co and Bristol R. Agree that they should have won the game against Mansfield but again the facts were WRONG so please do me a favour and DO NOT CRITISE GUYS WHO KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE AN EGO . It was simply constructive critism... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie Take all of this with a grain of salt, as I have my best success with overs, not picking the winners... I agree on home wins most of the time. Now, tomorrow I am on Stirling as I feel Cowdenbeath is simply not the team they were, and even if they score Stirling will outscore them. However, I think too often away teams, particularly Premier teams (in any country) are overvalued when it's clear the home pitch is so important. I am still studying this, but I think if you checked you'd find in most leagues that when the absolute best teams lose, it is not usually to the second-place team but to the 19th-place team. I think the reason has to do with players' expectations of victory (on both sides). The idea that teams will play for a draw is usually overstated. I think sometimes away teams that are less strong will try to frustrate the opponents, and there are other situations that call for it. Certainly in a low-scoring league the team that falls behind 1-0 will set its sights on getting what they can from a match...but I think players and coaches play to win, not draw. The only place where I disagree with you I think is current form. Very often I see people start their reasoning like this: "Team A has won their last 3 and looked great, Team B off three poor matches, Team A must be favored." If this were the case, there would be no upsets and teams in good form would continue their good form forever. What I have found, certainly in terms of totals betting, is that home and away records are a better determining factor than current form. Often the softest part of the totals line is found when Team A scores and concedes at home, but not on the road, yet the line reflects the average of their last six regardless of where they've played. To offer an example, for most of last year I did extraordinarily well betting on Cowdenbeath overs at home, unders on the road. They were a different team on away, and since the lines reflected current form they were often really generous at home, really poor lines away. A team like this at the moment is Swansea in League One...scores and concedes like crazy on the road, doesn't score or concede at home. Consequently the O 2.5 away is a huge bargain, whereas the home overs get bet up like mad and then you can take the under. Crewe is the opposite, a banker at home but not away. Perhaps this is not so much the case with sides, but it seems to me the greatest value you can find is taking the team in poor form against the team in good form. Put it this way: If you gave me the choice of... A) Team A is a home team in excellent form, 4-2-2 in their last eight games with a 10-4 differential...but 1-3-1 at home in that time and B) Team B is a home team in middling form, 3-1-4 in their last eight games with a 8-6 differential...but 3-1-0 at home I'd be inclined to take Team B. An example from today was first-place Karlsruhe vs 11th-place Koln, which had a very generous line, even odds on a Karlsruhe win. Karlsruhe people kept saying had had some problems recently, which was true, but all their problems were on the road. At home they'd won their last three 2-0, 2-1 and 2-1 (they'd had two losses and a draw in their last 3 on the road). Koln had a much improved current form, but their last road game was a 0-5 loss. Anyway, Karlsruhe won 2-1...I'm still amazed you could get them for even money all the way until the match started. Anyway, good luck with the plays, sorry to ramble, but i enjoy discussions about how to beat the bookies. It's what we love best! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddzer Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie Thanks for the positive reply, agree with your logic and I know mine needs tailoring but then thats what the site is for, thanks again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie I think it is too much to take Recent form Home last 8 games... The last game home was 4 months ago... my opinion. ~ aprox. 2 home games / month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie I think it is too much to take Recent form Home last 8 games... The last game home was 4 months ago... my opinion. ~ aprox. 2 home games / month Yeah, that's probably right...especially if a team has gained and lost players in a transfer window in the meantime, something that's probably even more important than injuries. With totals I like last eight because it gives me a wider view of a team's texture...do they score at home? Do they ever keep clean sheets? Can they regularly score multiple goals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie you are definetly right about wide view (total 8) For example today i get Exter with high rating home and better than Grays on all capitols. Exter @1.62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie Gravesend - high rating home better on all capitols @1.55 Kiddminister - middle rating but better on all capitols @1.60 Aldershoot - middle rating but better on all capitols @2.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie Correct - Sorry , had Chelsea, Tottenham Scunthorpe and Rangers in my head on another Thread I am working on, and it was late and got mixed up. Thanks for the reminder only hope your as quick to post your suggestions and formula in the future. This is probably one of the reasons why so many people view the site but dont post their threads, as I read more guys having a pop over silly mistakes when someone is just trying to explain some logic, my examples were only to make the thread understandable, they were not pivitol to the arguement. Sorry to complain but I believe this formula is a runner, it has worked for me and with the proper team news being submitted throughout the leagues I know this will reap returns. Hold on a second, I was not 'having a pop', but pointing out a fudamental contradiction between your system selection parameters & actual selections. I thought it would help you & people following your (very promising) system if any confusion was cleared up! I'm sorry I touched a raw nerve! Oh & I do post my own threads from time to time & will be grateful if you point out any errors, so that they can be rectified! Bloody Hell! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted March 7, 2007 Share Posted March 7, 2007 Re: Mastering the art of beating the bookie Hold on a second, I was not 'having a pop', but pointing out a fudamental contradiction between your system selection parameters & actual selections. I thought it would help you & people following your (very promising) system if any confusion was cleared up! I'm sorry I touched a raw nerve! Oh & I do post my own threads from time to time & will be grateful if you point out any errors, so that they can be rectified! Bloody Hell! See my reply mate - Im on your side :ok:ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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