Pedigree Analysis Part Three

[cavello]

METHODS OF ASSESSING DISTANCE REQUIREMENT BY PEDIGREE <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

SIRE & DAM’S SIRE BASIC METHOD

It been inferred that the main factor in stamina of a racehorse is the number of mitochondria available in the muscle tissue and this in inherited only via the distaff line. Because information and data to any dam is limited we must therefore attempt to include the distaff line via the sire of the dam.

Peter May contracted a model based on the AMWD (Average Maximum Winning Distance) of both the Sire and the Dam’s sire. Using a simple model based on these data pairs a regression analysis gives us a fairly neat solution.

The best linear regression that fitted this data was:

MWD(Maximum Winning Distance)= -1675 +0.75*Sire’sAMWD+0.24*Dam Sire’sAMWD

Significant to 95%.

There is slight difference between fillies and colt/geldings but IMO not a significant amount.

So without going too deep we are left with the following method to assess Maximum Winning Distance of progeny.

Fillies= 0.16 +0.75*Sire’s AMWD+0.25* Dam Sire’sAMWD

Colts= -0.16 +0.77*Sire’s AMWD+0.25 *Dam Sire’sAMWD

Application to Betting

Peter May took a sample of 2452 race performances in 335 races.

Horses, which had a predicted MWD less then, race distance loss 32% of turnover.

Horses which had a predicted MWD more then the race distance loss 8% of turnover.

Horses running in races more then 3 furlongs over it’s MWD lost 65% of turnover.