Player Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Paper trail system Have you ever observed how close are sometimes the outcomes on american sports matches compared to the initial lines (handicaps or spreads -unders/overs)? At Pinnacle points can be bought both on the handicap or the spread - usually the margin will be 2, sometimes 2.5 points after we bought both ways the maximum possible points. If we bet twice on a single game (on both it's sides indifferent if we bet on handicap or spread), once buying down a line to the max possible, and once buying up the line to the max possible, if we are lucky, both bets will be winners, the game's outcome being in the middle. If we lose, we'll lose a small percentage due to the odds difference - usually maximum 11.54% of the total of the 2 wagers . This theory is the basis of this system. I will start with a bank of 100 units, and every day I will have about 12-18 bets in the above described way, on 6-9 games. Because lines are fluctuating all day long, bets will be considered only in the timespan of 30-5 minutes before the official start of games. Once I will bet on maximum 3 games, which are 6 bets. These games will be placed in 3 arbitrary threads. The starting wager will be 1-1 unit, and I will aply a progressive system, but on which I'm not decided yet. Neither I'm not decided if to increase the wagers on a particular thread after each loss, or just after a whole day, if the total outcome is negative. The progressive system will be working inside of each thread in independent way. The results will be conducted besides on each thread, which is obligatory, of course on the whole system too, every day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: Pinnacle line middling An interesting approach Player. Looking forward to seeing how you get on. Good Luck. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 19, 2007 Author Share Posted February 19, 2007 Monday, February 19 (Day 1) - Round 1 Thread 1 Game: NCAAB: Villanova @ Marquette, 7:00 PM EST Bet 1: 1 unit: Villanova +3.5 -128 Bet 2: 1 unit: Marquette -1.5 -128 Thread 2 Game: NCAAB: Elon @ Tennesse Chat, 7:00 PM EST Bet 1: 1 unit: Elon +9.5 -126 Bet 2: 1 unit: Tennesse Chat -7.5 -129 Thread 3 Game: NCAAB: Appalachian St @ Western Carolina, 7:00 PM EST Bet 1: 1 unit: Appalachian St -6.5 -137 Bet 2: 1 unit: Western Carolina +8.5 -118 Total out = 6 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 19, 2007 Author Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: Pinnacle line middling An interesting approach Player. Looking forward to seeing how you get on. Good Luck. :hope Thanks Deep Blue! :) I was thinking that the results would be a lot more accurate, and I would elliminate completely the luck factor, if I would bet all the games of a single sport in a single day - but then the work amount required to follow all these results would be too much to handle.:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 Monday, February 19 (Day 1) - Round 2 Thread 1 Game: NCAAB: Kansas @ Kansas St, 9:00 PM EST Bet 3: 1 unit: Kansas -4 -128 Bet 4: 1 unit: Kansas St +6 -128 Thread 2 Game: NCAAB: Portland @ Gonzaga, 9:00 PM EST Bet 3: 1 unit: Portland/Gonzaga OVER 137 -118 Bet 4: 1 unit: Portland/Gonzaga UNDER 139 -118 Total out = 4 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 Monday, February 19 (Day 1) - Round 2 Thread 3 Game: NCAAB: San Francisco @ Saint Mary's, 12:00 PM EST Bet 3: 1 unit: San Francisco +7.5 -131 Bet 4: 1 unit: Saint Mary's -5.5 -124 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Monday, February 19 (Day 1) - Round 1 Results Thread 1 Villanova @ Marquette 67-80 Bet 1: 1 unit: Villanova +3.5 -128 LOSER! Bet 2: 1 unit: Marquette -1.5 -128 WINNER! W = 0.781 units Thread 2 Elon @ Tennesse Chat 59-62 Bet 1: 1 unit: Elon +9.5 -126 WINNER! W = 0.794 units Bet 2: 1 unit: Tennesse Chat -7.5 -129 LOSER! Thread 3 Appalachian St @ Western Carolina 76-65 Bet 1: 1 unit: Appalachian St -6.5 -137 WINNER! W = 0.730 units Bet 2: 1 unit: Western Carolina +8.5 -118 LOSER! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Monday, February 19 (Day 1) - Round 2 Result Thread 1 Kansas @ Kansas St 71-62 Bet 3: 1 unit: Kansas -4 -128 WINNER! W = 0.781 units Bet 4: 1 unit: Kansas St +6 -128 LOSER! Thread 2 Portland @ Gonzaga 67-87 Bet 3: 1 unit: Portland/Gonzaga OVER 137 -118 WINNER! W =0.847 units Bet 4: 1 unit: Portland/Gonzaga UNDER 139 -118 LOSER! Thread 3 San Francisco @ Saint Mary's 83-92 Bet 3: 1 unit: San Francisco +7.5 -131 LOSER! Bet 4: 1 unit: Saint Mary's -5.5 -124 WINNER! W =0.806 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Pinnacle line middling Total after Day 1: Bets = 12, LOST = 6, Won = 6 Bankroll = -1.261 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 20, 2007 Author Share Posted February 20, 2007 Tuesday, February 20 (Day 2) - Round 1 Thread 1 Game: NCAA: Depaul @ Notre Dame, 7:00 PM EST Bet 5: 1.3 units: Depaul +7.5 -129 Bet 6: 1.3 units: Notre Dame -5.5 -126 Thread 2 Game: NCAA: Oklahoma @ Missouri, 7:00 PM EST Bet 5: 1.3 units: Oklahoma +4 -121 Bet 6: 1.3 units: Missouri -2 -136 Thread 3 Game: NCAA: Austin Peay @ Tennessee Tech, 7:00 PM EST Bet 5: 1.3 units: Austin Peay +4.5 -124 Bet 6: 1.3 units: Tennessee Tech -2.5 -130 Total out = 7.8 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 21, 2007 Author Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: Pinnacle line middling The previous post was round 1 for today (not 2). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 21, 2007 Author Share Posted February 21, 2007 Tuesday, February 20 (Day 2) - Round 2 Thread 1 Game: NCAAB: Air Force @ UNLV, 10:00 PM EST Bet 7: 1.3 units: Air Force +4 -131 Bet 8: 1.3 units: UNLV -2 -126 Thread 2 Game: NBA: Boston @ Sacramento, 10:00 PM EST Bet 7: 1.3 units: Boston +7 -122 Bet 8: 1.3 units: Sacramento -5 -134 Thread 3 Game: NBA: Utah @ Portland, 10:00 PM EST Bet 7: 1.3 units: Utah +3 -130 Bet 8: 1.3 units: Portland -1 -116 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 21, 2007 Author Share Posted February 21, 2007 Tuesday, February 20 Round 1 Results Thread 1 Depaul @ Notre Dame 54-78 Bet 5: 1.3 units: Depaul +7.5 -129 LOSER! Bet 6: 1.3 units: Notre Dame -5.5 -126 WINNER! W = 1.032 units Thread 2 Oklahoma @ Missouri 68-72 Bet 5: 1.3 units: Oklahoma +4 -121 PUSH! Bet 6: 1.3 units: Missouri -2 -136 WINNER! W = 0.956 units Thread 3 Austin Peay @ Tennessee Tech 72-73 Bet 5: 1.3 units: Austin Peay +4.5 -124 WINNER! W = 1.048 units Bet 6: 1.3 units: Tennessee Tech -2.5 -130 LOSER! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 21, 2007 Author Share Posted February 21, 2007 Tuesday, February 20 Round 2 Results Thread 1 Air Force @ UNLV 50-60 Bet 7: 1.3 units: Air Force +4 -131 LOSER! Bet 8: 1.3 units: UNLV -2 -126 WINNER! W = 1.032 units Thread 2 Boston @ Sacramento 101-104 Bet 7: 1.3 units: Boston +7 -122 WINNER! W = 1.066 units Bet 8: 1.3 units: Sacramento -5 -134 LOSER! Thread 3 Utah @ Portland 100-103 Bet 7: 1.3 units: Utah +3 -130 PUSH! Bet 8: 1.3 units: Portland -1 -116 WINNER! W = 1.121 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 21, 2007 Author Share Posted February 21, 2007 Tuesday's totals Tuesday's totals: Bets = 12, Won = 6, Lost =4, Push =2 Bankroll = +1.055 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 21, 2007 Author Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: Pinnacle line middling System Total after Day 2: Bets = 24, Won = 12, Lost = 10, Push = 2 Bankroll = -0.206 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 22, 2007 Author Share Posted February 22, 2007 Wednesday, February 21 (Day 3) - Round 1 I mixed up things - I wanted to just copy the first of yesterday's posts, to just change games, teams and odds, and I ended up just editing it and repost it in the old place. So this is round 1 for today. __________________________________ Thread 1 Game: NCAAB: Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech, 7:00 PM EST Bet 9: 1.1 units: Wake Forest +13.5 -114 Bet 10: 1.1 units: Georgia Tech -11.5 -140 Thread 2 Game: NCAAB: Ohio @ Bowling Green, 7:00 PM EST Bet 9: 1.1 units: Ohio -1.5 -129 Bet 10: 1.1 units: Bowling Green +3.5 -127 Thread 3 Game: NCAAB: Georgetown @ Cincinnati, 7:00 PM EST Bet 9: 1.1 units: Georgetown -9 -133 Bet 10: 1.1 units: Cincinnati +11 -122 Total out = 6.6 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 22, 2007 Author Share Posted February 22, 2007 Wednesday, February 21 (Day 3) - Round 2 Thread 1 Game: NCAAB: Michigan @ Illinois, 9:00 PM EST Bet 11: 1.1 units: Michigan +8.5 -124 Bet 12: 1.1 units: Illinois -6.5 -131 Thread 2 Game: NCAAB: Florida State @ Maryland, 9:00 PM EST Bet 11: 1.1 units: Florida State +9.5 -126 Bet 12: 1.1 units: Maryland - 7.5 -129 Thread 3 Game: NCAAB: Texas A&M @ Oklahoma St, 9:00 PM EST Bet 11: 1.1 units: Texas A&M -3.5 -123 Bet 12: 1.1 units: Oklahoma St +5.5 -131 Total out = 6.6 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 22, 2007 Author Share Posted February 22, 2007 Re: Wednesday, February 21 Round 1- Results Thread 1 Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech 61-75 Bet 9: 1.1 units: Wake Forest +13.5 -114 LOSER! - was close to push! Bet 10: 1.1 units: Georgia Tech -11.5 -140 WINNER! W =0.786 units Thread 2 Ohio @ Bowling Green 88-63 Bet 9: 1.1 units: Ohio -1.5 -129 WINNER! W = 0.853 units Bet 10: 1.1 units: Bowling Green +3.5 -127 LOSER! Thread 3 Georgetown @ Cincinnati 75-65 Bet 9: 1.1 units: Georgetown -9 -133 WINNER! W = 0.827 units Bet 10: 1.1 units: Cincinnati +11 -122 WINNER! W = 0.902 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 22, 2007 Author Share Posted February 22, 2007 Re: Wednesday, February 21, Round 2 - Results Thread 1 Michigan @ Illinois 42-54 Bet 11: 1.1 units: Michigan +8.5 -124 LOSER! Bet 12: 1.1 units: Illinois -6.5 -131 WINNER! W = 0.840 units Thread 2 Florida State @ Maryland 55-73 Bet 11: 1.1 units: Florida State +9.5 -126 LOSER! Bet 12: 1.1 units: Maryland - 7.5 -129 WINNER! W = 0.853 units Thread 3 Texas A&M @ Oklahoma St 66-46 Bet 11: 1.1 units: Texas A&M -3.5 -123 WINNER! W = 0.894 units Bet 12: 1.1 units: Oklahoma St +5.5 -131 LOSER! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 22, 2007 Author Share Posted February 22, 2007 Wednesday's totals Wednesday's totals: Bets = 12, Won = 7, Lost =5 Bankroll = +0.455 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 22, 2007 Author Share Posted February 22, 2007 Re: Pinnacle line middling System Total after Day 3: Bets = 36, Won = 19, Lost = 15, Push = 2 Bankroll = +0.249 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 22, 2007 Author Share Posted February 22, 2007 Thursday, February 22 (Day 4) - Round 1 Thread 1 Game: NCAAB: Central Michigan @ Ball State, 9:00 PM EST Bet 13: 1 units: Central Michigan +7.5 -127 Bet 14: 1 units: Ball State -5.5 -127 Thread 2 Game: NCAAB: NC Wilmington @ Hofstra, 9:00 PM EST Bet 13: 1 units: NC Wilmington +13 -122 Bet 14: 1 units: Hofstra -11 -132 Thread 3 Game: NCAAB: Wright St @ Youngstown St, 9:00 PM EST Bet 13: 1 units: Wright St -1.5 -135 Bet 14: 1 units: Youngstown St +3.5 -121 Total out = 6 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 23, 2007 Author Share Posted February 23, 2007 Thursday, February 22 (Day 4) - Round 2 Thread 1 Game: NCAAB: Duke @ Clemson, 9:00 PM EST Bet 13: 1 units: Duke +1 -122 Bet 14: 1 units: Clemson +2 -124 Thread 2 Game: NCAAB: San Jose St @ Boise St, 9:00 PM EST Bet 13: 1 units: San Jose St +12 -121 Bet 14: 1 units: Boise St -10 -133 Thread 3 Game: NCAAB: Loyola Chicago @ Butler, 9:00 PM EST Bet 13: 1 units: Loyola Chicago +11 -125 Bet 14: 1 units: Butler -9 -130 Total out = 6 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 23, 2007 Author Share Posted February 23, 2007 Re: Pinnacle line middling At round 1 bets I wrongfully posted the start time -all games were begining at 7 PM EST. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 23, 2007 Author Share Posted February 23, 2007 Thursday, February 22 - Round 1, Results Thread 1 Central Michigan @ Ball State 61-59 Bet 13: 1 units: Central Michigan +7.5 -127 WINNER! W = 0.787 units Bet 14: 1 units: Ball State -5.5 -127 LOSER! Thread 2 NC Wilmington @ Hofstra 65-68 Bet 13: 1 units: NC Wilmington +13 -122 WINNER! W = 0.820 units Bet 14: 1 units: Hofstra -11 -132 LOSER! Thread 3 Wright St @ Youngstown St 57-72 Bet 13: 1 units: Wright St -1.5 -135 LOSER! Bet 14: 1 units: Youngstown St +3.5 -121 WINNER! W = 0.826 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 23, 2007 Author Share Posted February 23, 2007 Thursday, February 22 - Round 2, Results Thread 1 Duke @ Clemson 71-66 Bet 13: 1 units: Duke +1 -122 WINNER! W = 0.820 units Bet 14: 1 units: Clemson +2 -124 LOSER! Thread 2 San Jose St @ Boise St 64-83 Bet 13: 1 units: San Jose St +12 -121 LOSER! Bet 14: 1 units: Boise St -10 -133 WINNER! W = 0.752 units Thread 3 Loyola Chicago @ Butler 75-71 Bet 13: 1 units: Loyola Chicago +11 -125 WINNER! W = 0.800 units Bet 14: 1 units: Butler -9 -130 LOSER! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 23, 2007 Author Share Posted February 23, 2007 Thursday's totals Thursday's totals: Bets = 12, Won = 6, Lost =6 Bankroll = -1.195 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 23, 2007 Author Share Posted February 23, 2007 Re: Pinnacle line middling System Total after Day 4: Bets = 48, Won = 25, Lost = 21, Push = 2 Bankroll = -0.946 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Player Posted February 23, 2007 Author Share Posted February 23, 2007 Re: Pinnacle line middling It looks like this system goes nowhere - double hits on a game are very remote, even pushes are too rare. I may continue today or maybe tomorrow, and if still no results will show, I will call it a quit. Any suggestions guys? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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