Pedigree analysis Part One

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METHODS OF ASSESSING DISTANCE REQUIREMENT BY PEDIGREE <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

THE DOSAGE METHOD.

This method is based on a list of chefs-de-race. These are stallions that have been noted to have a influence for a particular range of distances.

Chefs are divided into 5 types with specific figures.

Brilliant-typical sprinter range. +2

Intermediate- miler range. +1

Classic- 10-12 furlong range. 0

Solid-12-15 furlong range. -1

Professional-typical Cup typical range. –2

The figures that are generated from these Chefs are DP (Dosage Profile), DI (Dosage Index) and CD (Centre of Distribution). A high DI and positive CD is an indication of speed but a lack of stamina in the pedigree.

A DI of 1.00 and/or a CD of 0.00 would indicate an ideal balance of speed and stamina. Of the 2 figures the CD is a more precise statistical indicator of possible optimum distance requirement.

How are the values produced?

Only 4 generations of a pedigree are required and the max values for influence is reduce for each generation back. Therefore max values are 16, 8. 4 and 2. If a Chef is within 2 groups points are split between the categories.

Example based on Montjeu.

First generation back Chef- Sadlers Wells C/S

Second generation back Chef-Northen Dancer B/C

Third generation back Chef -High Top C

Fourth generation back Chefs-Native Dancer I/C, Hail to Reason C, Forli C

Therefore :

Dosage Profile = B(5) + I(1)+C(22)+S(8)+P(0)

DP=36 points

Dosage Index= B +1+C/2 ¸ C/2+S+P = 0.89

DI = 0.89

Centre of Distribution =(((2 X B)+I)-(S+(2 X P)))/DP=0.08

Average value for a British horse is:

DI= 2.40

CD = +0.70

With the figures of 0.89 and +0.08 we can conclude that Montjeu is a good stayer suited to 12 furlomgs.

Later I will examining the pedigees of some famous horses by theis method. Plus I will produce a typical set of values. Those seeking more information could visit these sites.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/

http://www.chef-de-race.com/

Then we will look at the much simple method devised by Dr Peter Mays.