slapdash Posted February 6, 2007 Share Posted February 6, 2007 ... and I'm pretty sure I was right to, although they would have held up, as it turns out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodger Posted February 6, 2007 Share Posted February 6, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Had a good think about this and searched the internet for similar discussions... On the bubble, with the potential pay out being particularly meaningful, up against an allin that you don't have covered...then maybe, just maybe mind you, folding AA may well feel like the sensible decision. Up against 2 allins would make the decision slightly easier...one of them is going to get damaged and your place in the money is virtually guaranteed. However, this is AA...a gift from the poker gods and your opportunity to probably take a mass of chips onto the final table. I don't think I could fold AA preflop under ANY circumstances. QQ and KK and AKs I have folded before, but never AA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 6, 2007 Author Share Posted February 6, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Well, what I didn't say was that this was a rather unusual situation. Prima Rounders Round 4, which is a 10 player STT with top 5 qualifying for Round 5 (so all that matters is that you finish in the top 5). There were 8 players left and I had a slightly higher than average stack. There was an all-in bet and a call, both from players with about the same number of chips as me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosco Posted February 6, 2007 Share Posted February 6, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Well, what I didn't say was that this was a rather unusual situation. Prima Rounders Round 4, which is a 10 player STT with top 5 qualifying for Round 5 (so all that matters is that you finish in the top 5). There were 8 players left and I had a slightly higher than average stack. There was an all-in bet and a call, both from players with about the same number of chips as me. You Did Right for Me Slapdash. Its a totally different game when top prises are all the same. There is no need to play, Let them knock each other out. I have folded aa kk ak. in similar situations. How about this situation DODGER. Final table holding AA, currently fourth but all the stacks are marginally different 4 players left. The others are all in. What would you do? Imagining there is good value for all places in the usual structure. Personally I would still Fold, Virtually guarrantee Second and still a chance for 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jomell Posted February 6, 2007 Share Posted February 6, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Yes i agree in that particular game. Sometimes you need to lay down good hands in difficult situations...like Rosco's example. On the other end of the discussion you must push with total rubbish when you are getting short stacked before you get blinded out. I personally think that AA is over rated and although i would say that i've won with it more times than lost with it,i don't get to excited about it when i get it anymore ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 6, 2007 Author Share Posted February 6, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Yes i agree in that particular game. Sometimes you need to lay down good hands in difficult situations...like Rosco's example. On the other end of the discussion you must push with total rubbish when you are getting short stacked before you get blinded out. Agreed. I've been playing quite a few of these games recently, and doing quite well, because although most of the players do adjust their game for the unusual prize structure, I don't think most of them realize quite how much you should adjust. Actually, I think you should start stealing before you get short-stacked. If you have a healthy stack, then your chance of finishing in the top five doesn't depend that much on how large your stack is, so if there's a large stack with three times as much as you, he's not risking too much in equity by calling you, so you want to start preserving your stack by stealing before it gets to this stage. Also, I suspect you don't want to steal too much. You don't need to build a large stack. Average or slightly more is just fine. And if you bet too often, that's going to encourage people to call you, rightly or wrongly, which is the last thing you want. They're not going to believe you have a big hand every time you bet, but you want them to think there's a good enough chance that you do that they're unwilling to take chances. It's a strange game. If there's a big confrontation, then very often the only players to have +EV from the confrontation are the players who aren't involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gavham Posted February 7, 2007 Share Posted February 7, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I've got to say there is no way i would have lay down aa, my philosophy is if you reckon you are in front then get them in and as you have the nuts at this point i need say no more. i think if you want to win the tourney you must play this hand, but if you are happy to make the cash then i can understand As for playing on the bubble i think being aggresive is the best solution as it is a great chance to build a big stack with other players playing tight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted February 7, 2007 Share Posted February 7, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... i think if you want to win the tourney you must play this hand Did you read the thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted February 7, 2007 Share Posted February 7, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... As it happens though with this particular situation I dont think there is much in it tbh. I think its a pretty much break even play whether you call or dont call. Id fold KK here for sure but AA hmm. Im not saying its a mistake to fold at all I certainly see the reasoning but I dont think its a big deal either way so id probably go ahead and call off the top of my head. If there was 1 less player remaining (so 7 players left, 5 qualify) I think its definitely good for a fold. If you call and win, you almost guarantee yourself qualification dont you. Not 100% but certainly 95% anyway being the chipleader with 6/7 remaining, thatd be very hard to mess up. If you didnt play a hand youd make it so its a more or less sure thing. So what are the chances of you calling with AA and winning? I believe it is somewhere around a 70% chance overall. If you are up against 2 other pocket pairs you are around 65% to win. If you are up against Ax and a pocket pair you are 70-75% to win the hand. If you are up against 2 lots of unpaired cards its around the same % as that. So I think we can probably agree on your chances of winning the hand with AA here are 70% roughly (and thus 70% of qualifying in the top 5 basically). So if you fold what are your chances of qualifying? We can assume that 1 player will probably be eliminated in this all in by you folding, so there probably will be 7 players left and you have an averageish stack, 5 qualify. Your chances here are certainly at least 65% but no better than 75%. I reckon its about the same chance, about 70% of you qualifying tbh. So yeah I dont think either calling or folding is incorrect. I just think calling is more assertive and you know youre in if you just win this 1 hand. Its a tight one for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted February 7, 2007 Share Posted February 7, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I've got to say there is no way i would have lay down aa, my philosophy is if you reckon you are in front then get them in and as you have the nuts at this point i need say no more. It does make a difference in this type of tourny. By this reckoning youd call even if 5 players were all in already. You qualify by not getting involved by default, its definitely a mistake to play AA there. For instance I 100% believe calling with KK would be a mistake in this hand Slapdash is talking about. Id think I had the best hand but theres a very reasonable chance im getting knocked out, probably a good 40-45% chance of me getting sent packing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 7, 2007 Author Share Posted February 7, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I agree that your calculation is about right, except that many of the players in these don't, in my opinion, really understand quite how huge an adjustment they need to make to their game in the later stages of these, and if I have an average stack with seven players left, I think I can manage at least 80%. I have about a 2 in 3 success rate overall, and a lot of the ones I lose are those where nobody gets knocked out until the blinds are large. Plus, of course, I just wanted to be able to say I'd folded aces preflop! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 7, 2007 Author Share Posted February 7, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... And I agree, KK would be a complete no-brainer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted February 7, 2007 Share Posted February 7, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I was just speaking from a purely statty viewpoint on the 70% chance of qualifying with 5/7 getting in. If you think youre 80% there or even 75% then yeah its quite correct to fold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gavham Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Did you read the thread? ok busted i do apologize i have a nasty habit of glancing through threads whilst playing and i have oviously picked this one up wrong. note to self read the bloody thing properly! after reading every detail i can see why he folded, but there is no way i would have as the way i see it you can take out 2 players and sit out to make top 5. i just dont think i would ever lay down the nuts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I see why you folded too Slapdash, but me being me, I just don't think I could ever fold aces even in that position you were in, certainly not preflop anyway. I've folded AKs afew times in that position and QQ, but not AA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galronix Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I see why you folded too Slapdash, but me being me, I just don't think I could ever fold aces even in that position you were in, certainly not preflop anyway. I've folded AKs afew times in that position and QQ, but not AA. Or KK :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Or KK :lol That was different, you lucky git. :sad :sad 1st hand of the night, I still get nightmares about that. :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I can see plenty of scenarios where I believe it would be right to fold AA pre flop ... with the information here though I haven't been convinced that this is one of them :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 8, 2007 Author Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I can see plenty of scenarios where I believe it would be right to fold AA pre flop ... with the information here though I haven't been convinced that this is one of them :unsure Any particular reason? The weak point, I think, is my estimate that I have an 80% chance of qualifying with an average stack and seven players left. It's quite possible that I've been luckier than I think in the past, and that's an overestimate. But if that figure's right, would you agree it's right to fold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I'd definitely fold, laying it down leaves you with only 7 players in. If you've got a higher than average stack, you should have a huge chance of getting top 5 there (I'd agree with slap's 80%, if anything possibly slightly higher.) If you play, unless they've both got Ax in which case you're looking good, you've got too high a chance of going out. I make it a roughly one in three chance of you losing if neither has an A (looking at realistic hands like high suited connectors, pocket pairs), Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Erm .... no ....you're right (as usual) - if by folding you have an 80% expectation of qualifying, then it is a clear fold .... 80% does sound VERY high though....... if you fold, and a player gets eliminated, you will then be about 5th (maybe 4th) of 7 with a slightly below average stack? I dont know what the blinds are, but presumably you cannot fold your way to the prizes? Will you find a better situation to risk your money in than AA pre flop? (ONLY if you consider yourself to have a significant edge over your opponents....) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Jaded laying down AA pre flop? Yeah right - get out of here mate!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I personally dont think I could ever put down AA preflop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 8, 2007 Author Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Jaded laying down AA pre flop? Yeah right - get out of here mate!!! I don't think this form of the game would really suit Jaded, anyway! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... in a cash game, never. In a tournement, with 2nd largest stack, at or close to the bubble, with multiple players including the big stack already all in before me ? Fold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 8, 2007 Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... In a tournement' date=' with 2nd largest stack, at or close to the bubble, with multiple players including the big stack already all in before me ? Fold[/quote'] In a typical MTT (non satellite) where 1st prize is significantly more than last prize (usually slightly more than buy in) I'm calling every time, regardless of chip stacks, but if I'm second chip stack and the other 2 are smaller, I'm definitely calling!!!!! I cannot believe it is ever right to fold in that circumstance (unless you are playing beyond your bankroll) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 8, 2007 Author Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Erm .... no ....you're right (as usual) - if by folding you have an 80% expectation of qualifying' date=' then it is a clear fold .... 80% does sound VERY high though....... if you fold, and a player gets eliminated, you will then be about 5th (maybe 4th) of 7 with a slightly below average stack? I dont know what the blinds are, but presumably you cannot fold your way to the prizes? Will you find a better situation to risk your money in than AA pre flop? (ONLY if you consider yourself to have a significant edge over your opponents....)[/quote'] The blinds were 50/100, with 1500 starting stacks. If I fold, and one of them got knocked out, then roughly speaking there would be six "small" stacks left and one "big" stack with about twice as many chips. Even if the big stack was guaranteed to qualify, the small stacks would have an average chance of 4/6 = 67% of qualifying. I think you probably don't realize quite how different this game is from poker (and I think many of the other players don't either, which is why I think I have an edge). I agree that if I had to make a choice between risking all my chips now or waiting for a better opportunity to have an all-in confrontation, then I should take this opportunity. But that's not really how the game works. It's not a game of building your stack. It's a game of preserving enough of a stack (by taking the blinds every now and then) so that you keep enough fold equity so that you can keep stealing blinds every now and then. From this point I'd hope to get to the last five without seeing a flop (except against a short stack). It really is bloody boring! :lol But with a success rate of about 2/3 at a buy-in of $275, I'm averaging a notional profit of around $90 per hour, which isn't bad for something you can do while you're watching TV. ("Notional" profit because you can't actually cash out unless you play Level 5, which has a more conventional prize structure.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted February 9, 2007 Share Posted February 9, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... Jaded laying down AA pre flop? Yeah right - get out of here mate!!! It's only AA! 89s in that situation and I'm shoving, obviously :rollin Anyway, I hate calling all-ins, no fun when you can't bluff... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
missletrine Posted February 9, 2007 Share Posted February 9, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I think it was a brave move. Not sure I could resist going in with them to amass a huge stack (or lose one) Do you aim for top five or for first as a matter of pride? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 9, 2007 Share Posted February 9, 2007 Re: Just folded AA preflop ... I think it was a brave move. Not sure I could resist going in with them to amass a huge stack (or lose one) Do you aim for top five or for first as a matter of pride? How much money does extra pride win? :tongue2 So far as I'm concerned 5th = 4th = 3rd = 2nd = 1st in this type of tourney - if going for 1st reduces your chances of finishing 5th, then it is costing you money to do so!!! And money rules over pride (online in poker anyway) every time..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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