Martingale System (again!!)

[blinf]

Ok, I know its been done to death on here!.. The vast majority being of the opinion that it is no good, as while it may make short term profits, one bad run will inevitably wipe out the entire bankroll in one foul swoop. I have used this system previously when I was somewhat naive and unaware of forums such as this one. I have found that as predicted, one bad run will wipe out an entire bankroll! :( However (here comes the but!)... I am firmly of the opinion that making an informed "evens" bet on football does involve less luck than is needed on a roulette table. Also, I have found when using this system, that the gains are often consistent, and often a decent profit will show before the sucker punch of the dreaded losing run. I therefore feel a system of cutting your losses after 3 losing bets and starting again, could, in the long term, prove profitable. I feel this would lessen the impact of losing runs and perhaps enable this kind of system to show long term profit. These thoughts are however in their infancy, and I'd like to hear any opinions / evidence for and against this suggestion. I'm sure there is some reason why this system is completely flawed, and renders this post a complete waste of time! Look forward to hearing your thoughts, :unsure cheers blinf

[coolkat]

Re: Martingale System (again!!) Hey blinf, I too see the merit of the martingale approach, in a controlled fashion, and think it can be a tool to help build profits. Even using it in a solid stock for example, think of the ultimate blue chip, invest in what you think is the bottom, then if it goes down buy double at the lower price and so on to lower your VWAP, Warren Buffett often uses this technique I believe. Here, I'd assume you are well-informed like buffett, and so in sports obviously you're more well-informed than in roulette so you're chances of not wiping out do increase (in my opinion). But it must be controlled somehow. Also, what do you think the merits of using not just even money bets but higher odds like 3, 4, 5, ... 10, you'd have a long time to get it right with the outlay remianing fairly minimal for a while. I'd pick the first goalscorer, or a 0-0 draw within 20 attempts 99.99% of the time at a bet progression of 1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10... units if you understand me. You wouldn't hve to double the initial bets. Any more thoughts?