mcgin Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 Gonna papertrial a system here which tracks the Super 14 tips on http://www.mymait.com/S12Rugby/index.html. I'll be taking the best odds available for each tip. Fri 2nd Feb: Blues - 1.73 VCBet vs Crusaders Force - 1.53 VCBet vs Highlanders Lions vs Waratahs - 1.4 Bet365 I'll be sticking up a spreadsheet which tracks the return/yield for various staking strategy's once I get time (much like the one in my Rugby Favs thread), it will be a 100 unit starting bank and I'll be comparing the following 5 staking strategys: Fixed stakes: 1 unit Percentage of the bank stakes: 1%, 5% & 10% Fixed profit: 1 unit/bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Stakes/Results etc. Are all in the following spreadsheet - http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pC1ufGPuFg_5gHIVmz7XqbA Saturdays games: Chiefs - 1.58 Pinnacle vs Brumbies Reds vs Hurricanes - General Sharks - 1.83 PaddyPower vs Bulls Cheetahs - 1.83 Paddypower vs Stormers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Oops.... Hurricanes are 1.57 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Force are 1.4 on VC (can get 1.5 on Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 3, 2007 Author Share Posted February 3, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Not a particularly impressive start, but I do fully expect this to start poorly, and then improve as the season goes on. Thats just the nature of how the AI system works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Hi mcgin I checked the MAIT website out - seems very interesting. When do you think the AI's predictions will be good enough to trust to bet on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 5, 2007 Author Share Posted February 5, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System To be honest I've no idea as I've never followed the Super 14 before so don't konw what the odds are like. Thats the point of the paper trail. But it appears to level out on 70% S/R after about 5 weeks looking at past results. Assuming the odds average at about 1.5 then that should be sufficient to see a profit. Personnally I won't be putting any money on it this season, just wanted to track it to see if it could be profitable. Watch out for his World Cup one tho, that had an outstanding strike rate last time out and I will be following that one very closely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted February 5, 2007 Share Posted February 5, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Only 3 results wrong out of 48 picks for RWC very impressive, although revieiwng the tournament's results again it does seem rather 'well behaved' (probably similar to the MAIT's results for the 2000 NRL season). AI picks no doubt also helped by the reliability of IRB international ratings. Indeed the IRB claim " Several years' research went into developing the system, using an extensive database of international matches going back to 1871. All the weightings and values in the system were derived from detailed analysis of the results. The system's reliability is assessed in a number of objective ways, including measuring its 'Predictive Accuracy'. If, over a period of time, the system tends to be good at predicting which side will win each match, then we can be confident that it is presenting an accurate and reliable picture of current strength, and responding appropriately to changes in form. " I do like this approach. Well found mcgin - :clap ! I'm going to 'paper trail' follow for another 4 weeks before going live to small stakes as 70% success @ 1.5 good enough for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 8, 2007 Author Share Posted February 8, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Okay, in order to keep my progressive stakes accurate, I will post all the odds for the weekend today, however after Fridays games I'll revise the odds to whats available at that time for the Saturday matches which will likely be different. Only reason I'm doing it this way is in case I don't get to post the revised odds before the kick off and I'll be left without the price. Chiefs - 1.57 ExtraBet vs Hurricanes Stormers - 1.54 Pinnacle vs Force Sharks - 1.69 Pinnacle vs Waratahs Crusaders - 1.26 Pinnacle vs Reds Brumbies - 1.67 BlueSq vs Blues Bulls - 1.59 Pinnacle vs Cheetahs Lions - 1.91 Will Hill vs Highlanders Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 9, 2007 Author Share Posted February 9, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System 1 price change to keep the progressive stakes correct Bulls - 1.55 Pinnacle vs Cheetahs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 15, 2007 Author Share Posted February 15, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Too few books open for thesaturday matches so won't post the odds just yet for them Friday: Stormers vs Chiefs - 1.91 Premier Bulls - 1.33 Premier vs Force Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 16, 2007 Author Share Posted February 16, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System 2 losses :( Hurricanes vs Blues - 1.91 Sporting Odds Reds vs Brumbies - 1.53 General Cheetahs - 1.83 Pinnacle vs Waratahs Lions vs Crusaders - 1.33 Coral Sharks - 1.29 VCBet vs Highlanders Seems to be only tipping favourites at the moment :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 22, 2007 Author Share Posted February 22, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Hurricanes 23/2/2007 Bet365 1.57 Highlanders 24/2/2007 Bet365 1.53 Blues 24/2/2007 Pinnacle 1.27 Force 24/2/2007 Ladbrokes 1.25 Bulls 24/2/2007 Ladbrokes 1.50 Crusaders 24/2/2007 Bet365 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 25, 2007 Author Share Posted February 25, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Well that was a well needed profitable weekend. 5 from 6 will do very nicely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 1, 2007 Author Share Posted March 1, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Blues - 1.25 Bet 365 vs Highlanders Waratahs - 1.57 Bet365 vs Force Cheetahs - 1.63 Pinnacle vs Chiefs Hurricanes - 1.23 Pinnacle vs Stormers Brumbies - 1.57 Bet365 vs Bulls Reds - 1.67 Will Hill vs Lions Sharks - 1.91 BlueSq vs Crusaders Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 2, 2007 Author Share Posted March 2, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System 2 odds updates for the progressive stakes. Brumbies - 1.53 >Bet365 vs Bulls Sharks - 1.83 Stan James vs Crusaders Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 8, 2007 Author Share Posted March 8, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System 06:35 Highlanders (1.4) 08:40 Brumbies (1.53) 10:45 W Force (1.93) 10-03-2007 06:35 Blues (1.17) 08:40 Waratahs (1.73) 15:00 Sharks (1.73) No time to update the bookies so prices just taken from oddschecker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 15, 2007 Author Share Posted March 15, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Sorry, once again no time to update properly. Hopefully will be able to next week. 06:35 Chiefs (1.33) Lions (4.5) Draw (26) View Odds 101% 10:05 W Force (1.44) Reds (3.5) Draw (26) View Odds 102% 17-03-2007 Best book 06:35 Crusaders (1.5) Bulls (3.14) Draw (23) View Odds 103% 08:40 Waratahs (1.45) Stormers (3.5) Draw (26) View Odds 101% 10:45 Sharks (1.57) Hurricanes (2.75) Draw (23) View Odds 104% 15:00 Brumbies (1.91) Cheetahs (2.2) Draw (21) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 29, 2007 Author Share Posted March 29, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Sorry bout missing last week. Heres this week. Again no time to post whats what, but odds taken from oddschecker 30-03-2007%07:35Highlanders (1.53)Cheetahs (3.2)Draw (23)View Odds101%11:05W Force (1.9)Sharks (2.2)Draw (23)View Odds102% 31-03-2007%07:35Blues (1.36)Chiefs (3.75)Draw (26)View Odds104%09:40Crusaders (1.13)Waratahs (6.5)Draw (34)View Odds107% A couple of matches have no odds on oddschecker so just grabbed the price from Betfair Hurricanes 1.85 vs Bulls Lions 2.08 vs Brumbies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Okay managed to get everything up to date now (except for the missing week) Looks like the system is recovering well (as expected) For Fixed stakes we're in profit!: Total staked 52.00 Total returned 53.37 Yield 2.63% Winners 34.00 Loosers 18.00 Strike Rate 65.38% Current bank 101.37 Profit/Loss 1.37 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted April 1, 2007 Share Posted April 1, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System System seems to have leveled out after round 5 as predicted. Well done mcgin :clap . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted April 5, 2007 Author Share Posted April 5, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Not going to bother posting the bookies again cos I'm feeling lazy :) Odds taken from oddschecker 06-04-2007%07:35Blues(1.07)Cheetahs (13)Draw (51)View Odds103% 07-04-2007%02:35Chiefs(1.91)Highlanders (2.25)Draw (19)View Odds102%07:35Crusaders (1.14)W Force (7)Draw (34)View Odds105%09:40Sharks (1.62)Reds (2.5)Draw (21)View Odds106%15:00Stormers (1.67)Lions (2.4)Draw (21)View Odds106% 08-04-2007%09:40Brumbies (1.44)Waratahs (3)Draw (21)View Odds108% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumpking Posted April 8, 2007 Share Posted April 8, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System 5 out of 6 so far this weekend:nana :cow :nana :cow :nana Impressive selecting from the MAIT system. C'mon the Brumbies :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted April 9, 2007 Author Share Posted April 9, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System 6 out of 6 :) Fixed stakes figures: Total staked 58.00 Total returned 62.22 Yield 7.27% Winners 40.00 Loosers 18.00 Strike Rate 68.97% Current bank 104.22 Profit/Loss 4.22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted April 12, 2007 Author Share Posted April 12, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System 13-04-2007%07:35Hurricanes (1.18)Cheetahs (6)Draw (34)View Odds104% 14-04-2007%02:35Chiefs (1.25)W Force (5)Draw (26)View Odds104%05:30Crusaders (1.17)Highlanders (6.5)Draw (34)View Odds104%07:35Blues (1.29)Sharks (4.5)Draw (26)View Odds104%09:40Waratahs (1.3)Reds (4.3)Draw (23)View Odds105%14:00Bulls (1.44)Stormers (3.25)Draw (26) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted April 14, 2007 Author Share Posted April 14, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Another good week with 5 from 6 (although I would have expected 6 with those prices :) ), realises a tiny tiny profit for the week. Total staked 64.00 Total returned 68.56 Yield 7.12% Winners 45.00 Loosers 19.00 Strike Rate 70.31% Current bank 104.56 Profit/Loss 4.56 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted April 20, 2007 Author Share Posted April 20, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Crusaders were 1.2 before kickoff (they're losing 7-3 at th mo) 09:40Brumbies (1.33)W Force (4.3)Draw (26)View Odds102% 21-04-2007%05:30Cheetahs (1.8)Reds (2.25)Draw (23)View Odds104%07:35Chiefs (2)Sharks (2.2)Draw (21)View Odds100%09:40Waratahs (1.8)Highlanders (2.2)Draw (23)View Odds105%13:00Bulls (1.4)Lions (3.75)Draw (26)View Odds102%15:05Blues (1.36)Stormers (4)Draw (23)View Odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted April 20, 2007 Author Share Posted April 20, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Should be a good test of the system this week with 3 teams selected not massive favourites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted May 3, 2007 Author Share Posted May 3, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Well the week of the 20th was rubbish, I'll update the stats after this week. Last week was pretty good, 5 from 6, so I imagine that a profit would have been made although I didn't capture the prices. Anyway this week the selections are (once again) the favourites in each of the matches. 07:35Crusaders (1.25)Chiefs (4.5)Draw (29)View Odds106%11:05Blues (1.63)W Force (2.4)Draw (23)View Odds107% 05-05-2007%05:30Brumbies (1.73)Highlanders (2.25)Draw (23)View Odds107%07:35Hurricanes (1.29)Waratahs (4.5)Draw (26)View Odds104%13:00Lions (1.8)Cheetahs (2.25)Draw (23)View Odds104%15:05Sharks (1.44)Stormers (3.5)Draw (23)View Odds102%17:10Bulls (1.04)Reds (13)Draw (51)View Odds106% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted May 29, 2007 Author Share Posted May 29, 2007 Re: Super 14 - MAIT System Forgot about this :$ Well after a few missed weeks, the overall picture is below. Nothing wildly exciting can be inferred from the results. The system does little more then back the favourites each week which eeks out a small profit. Probably due to luck more then anything else. I think I'll contact the owner of the system and see if he can publish any percentages with the predictions to see if any value can be found Total staked 78.00 Total returned 80.33 Yield 2.98% Winners 53.00 Loosers 25.00 Strike Rate 67.95% Current bank 102.33 Profit/Loss 2.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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