January Banker Thread Stats

[TurkeyLurkey]

Blimey, is it me or are these months flying by? Serious Statage Warning by the way! Altogether in January, there were 124 selections. 60 of these were Winners, giving you a 48.39% hit rate (virtually identical to December which was 48.4%). Chronologically (i.e. the bet in the 13:20 would come before the bet in the 15:30) your longest winning run was four successive winners and this happened three time at various points in the month. Your longest losing run came during the 1st and 2nd of January when you had 6 losers on the bounce. There were several sequences over the month of around 3-4 losers. If you had started January with a £100 betting bank and bet Level Stakes of £10 on each selection at SP. Your bank at the end of January would now be -£53.60. Top Rated There were 29 Top Rated selections. Of these, 18 won. This gives a 62.07% strike rate. Longest winning run was between 1st January and 7th January when you had 7 winners on the bounce. You had two runs of three consecutive losers and these were the longest losing runs. £10 L.S. bets at SP would have seen your £100 bank decrease to £74.50 by the end of January. (Despite a good strike rate, the prices were generally just too low to make a recovery) Hot Picks There were 45 Hot Picks. Of these 28 won. Giving a strike rate of 62.2%. Longest winning run was 6. Longest losing run was 3. Same routine as before, your £100 bank would have decreased to £87.60 by the end of January. The Top Rated was a Hot Pick 23 times in January and 13 of them won. Conclusion A better month than December but a losing month overall. Overall I started doing this at the start of November and a £100 bank with £10 L.S. on all selections would now be down to -£60.80. Top Rated bank would be down to £46.70. Hot Picks would be still showing a profit at £117.30. Analysis By Rated Top Rated for January = -£25.50 (62.1% strike rate) 2nd Rated for January = -£35.20 (51.72% strike rate) 3rd Rated for January = -£18.90 (50% strike rate) 4th Rated for January = -£73.30 (34.78% strike rate) 5th Rated for January = -£59.50 (45.46% strike rate) There is a fairly definite trend emerging there but it must be said that the Top Rated and 2nd Rated could be said to be the more "robust" figures because this strike rate was achieved over more bets. There were only actually eleven 5th rated bets in January, compared with 29 Top Rated. Turkey's Twopenneth As a bit of an experiment, because I couldn't really understand how Zulu's ratings worked, I entered the "competition" for a few days at the beginning of January. I stuck mainly to strong odds-on favs in 2m Novice Hurdles because they almost always win. Within a few days, a numpty like me was able to climb to 3rd place in the table (I think I could have got higher but there was a horse (name escapes me right now - Paper Moon???) I wanted to bank early in the month which was strongly fancied but was making it's hurdles debut so I couldn't see how I could justify it as a banker... it won and the one I opted for instead lost!!!) I stopped making selections after a few days because at 3rd rated, I was having an impact on the ratings and I didn't want that. I don't know how feasible this is, it would likely involve even more work from the already stretched Zulu, but I wonder if the slate shouldn't be wiped clean at the start of a month? We can all have a bad spell and we can all have a lucky streak but I don't think someone who has just enjoyed a few winners in his first few bankers should jump over guys who have been regularly posting winners on here for months and have just had a little bout of "Seconditis". As I allude to in my Analysis by Rated, the "Robustness" of a system or a tipster is very important - I would rather follow someone who shows a profit of 50 points over 100 bets than someone who shows a profit of 100 points after 10 bets.

[stewartd14]

Re: January Banker Thread Stats Cracking write up Turkey m8. Very informative.

I would rather follow someone who shows a profit of 50 points over 100 bets than someone who shows a profit of 100 points after 10 bets.

Really!!!!! :unsure :unsure