Another One Bites The Dust (Martingale)

[Crouch Potato]

We are now approaching the final 32 of the Australian Open singles draw. This is where the seeds start to meet. The idea is simple - Lay every seed in order to win $6 (That's to win the amount, not liability). If the player you lay wins (i.e. we lose the bet), lay them in the round of 16. Repeat for Qtr Finals. Repeat for Semi Finals. Repeat for final. The thing that I hope will be the success to the system is that only one player can win the Open. Furthermore, though, to enhance the chances of a good run, one player will be picked from each side of the draw and will be exempt from laying - the idea being that these two are likeliest to play in the finals (IMO), so not laying them should boost profits. This will only be done though, in draws where there is a player whose talent and/or form warrants this. The biggest danger I can perhaps imagine in this, aside from a left field seeded winner, is that a selection withdraws in the first set and loses the game, but the lay of that player is voided. From the men's draw, exempt are: Roger Federer, James Blake From the women's draw, exempt are: Nobody I've not yet decided if I will do this with real money (minimum stakes) or paper trail it. Have overnight to decide.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Another One Bites The Dust (Martingale) Going ahead with this to win $6 real. Women to lay today (in the less fun sense :loon ): Sretbonik - Layed @ 5.3, Liability of $25.80 Kirilenko - Layed @ 5.7, Liability of $28.2 Jankovic - Layed @ 1.15, Liability $0.90 Vaidisova - Layed @ 1.26, Liability of $1.56 Mauresmo - Layed @ 1.05, Liability of $0.30 Dementieva - Layed @ 1.21, Liability of $1.26 Peer - Layed @ 2.06, Liability of $6.36 Petrova - Layed @ 1.55, Liability of $3.30 Kuznetsova - Layed @ 1.2, Liability of $1.20 Golovin - Layed @ 1.94 - Liability of $5.64

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Another One Bites The Dust (Martingale) From the men: Ancic - Layed @ 1.47, Liability of $2.82 Hrabaty - Layed @ 3.1, Liability of $12.60 Robredo - Layed @ 1.3, Liability of $1.80 Ferrer - Layed @ 1.74, Liability of $4.44 Stepanek - Layed @ 2.38, Liability of $8.28 Roddick - Layed @ 1.51, Liability of $3.06 Safin - Layed @ 2.98, Liability of $11.88 Djokovic - Layed @ 1.13, Liability $0.78 Youzhny - Layed @ 27, Liability of $156 Gasquet - Layed @ 1.41, Liability of $2.46 Exempt from Laying: Roger Federer

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Another One Bites The Dust (Martingale) Men today: Hewitt Layed @ 2.06 Gonzalez Layed @ 1.96 Berdych Layed @ 1.5 Tursonvo Layed @ 3 Haas Layed @ 1.22** Murray Layed @ 1.33 Davydenko Layed @ 1.13 Nadal Layed @ 1.2 Wawrinka Layed @ 6.4 Exempt: James Blake

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Another One Bites The Dust (Martingale) Women Today: Chakvetadze Layed @ 1.25 Bondarenko Layed @ 26 Clijsters Layed @ 1.05 Hantuchova Layed @ 1.51 Schnyder Layed @ 1.51 Hingis Layed @ 1.11 Li Layed @ 2.2 Safina Layed @ 1.84 Garbin Layed @ 23 Sharapova Layed @ 1.05 Ivanovic Layed @ 1.73 Zvonareva Layed @ 2.4

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Another One Bites The Dust (Martingale) Seems I forgot the Nalbandian v Grosjean match. For future round purposes, I will treat it as if Grosjean was unseeded and Nalbandian progressed after a first set forfeit (meaning no bet in round of 32 due to betting rules).

[AJ]

Re: Another One Bites The Dust (Martingale) Surely you should have excepted Nadal not James Blake

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Another One Bites The Dust (Martingale)

Surely you should have excepted Nadal not James Blake

Perhaps, perhaps not. Nadal is in my opinion more vulnerable at present than Blake, but still layable at skinny odds. More importantly though, I feel Blake is more chance of beating Federer in a final than Nadal is, despite Nadal's record. Federer is the important exemption, and the exempt player on the other side of the draw I decided to make the player I would least like Federer to play in the final. For me that is James Blake.