Staking Plan Theory

[Valiant23]

I'm currently using a system to good(?) effect on the American Handicap market. What I want to do is increase or maximise the return on these figures without using any stupid staking plans, but I feel some sort of progressive stake would be the way forward. Here are my figures;

Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1167.9 Total staked:1800 Number of bets:180 Winning bets:102 Losing bets:78 Strike rate:56.67% Yield:9.33% Profit (or Loss):167.9

Other things I've considered are; break even strike rate (52.6% Thanks Jaded :ok). Odds @ 1.90. 90% of games are extremely close to this price. The lowest odds I've ever taken are 1.87 and highest 2.00, but the vast majority are 1.90-1.92. The strike rate on this system seems to be consistently around 56%. Staking level stakes @ 10pts per bet. However what I'd like to do is using the break even strike rate of 52.6% is increase my stake in proportion to my actual strike rate (currrently 56%). What I'm thinking of is, for every 1% or part thereof I'm above 52.6% then I would increase my stake by 1pt, and obviously if the strike rate drops then so would my stake. Can the people who do a lot of systems give their thoughts on this please? The other thing is, if what I'm suggesting seems reasonable, then should I set my base strike rate figure higher than 52.6% so that I can ensure my system maintains its profitability?

[mcgin]

Re: Staking Plan Theory Valiant did some simulations based on your figures above. Basically I simulated 1000 bets for each staking percentage and took the final bank figure (along with max, min along the way) and then did this another 1000 times for each one to get the average figures below. I started with a bank of 100pts for each run and I've defined being bankrupt as having lost 50% of the bank at any point, as I think if you hit that point it'll be quite hard to recover with progressive stakes. Its a case of weighing up risk v return. Personally I'd go for about 2% of the bank. That way your risk of ruin (going bankrupt) is only about 1-2% and you've a 96% chance of being in the black after 1000 bets. But if you fancy being more daring you can always go higher. Heres the results (I might stick the yield in as well later if I have time)

%Bank Staked	Avg Max	AvgMin	Avg Final Bank	# Bankrupts (Max 1000)	#Positive Banks (max 1000)
0.10%	107.23	99.33	106.55	0	987
0.20%	115.22	98.68	113.70	0	987
0.30%	123.62	98.09	121.23	0	987
0.40%	132.39	97.38	129.09	0	985
0.50%	142.17	96.87	137.61	0	988
0.60%	153.12	96.25	147.52	0	986
0.70%	161.31	95.16	154.45	0	981
0.80%	175.04	94.78	166.52	0	983
0.90%	189.86	94.16	179.22	0	981
1.00%	201.05	92.95	188.87	0	963
1.10%	217.60	92.69	203.46	1	980
1.20%	232.30	92.12	215.54	0	972
1.30%	251.57	91.57	233.35	0	973
1.40%	271.75	90.81	249.82	2	969
1.50%	278.77	89.94	253.90	4	971
1.60%	302.58	89.53	273.29	4	978
1.70%	329.81	89.11	297.15	4	976
1.80%	354.97	88.27	317.86	4	973
1.90%	369.82	87.11	328.58	13	966
2.00%	413.87	86.88	366.41	9	965
2.10%	442.76	86.02	390.80	18	965
2.20%	470.85	85.58	411.16	20	971
2.30%	499.59	85.75	436.47	18	973
2.40%	548.39	84.49	476.13	27	972
2.50%	582.69	83.56	499.57	39	958
2.60%	646.22	83.30	557.49	39	963
2.70%	638.09	82.26	542.62	38	961
2.80%	719.16	81.71	607.34	53	954
2.90%	771.46	80.75	653.85	55	961
3.00%	787.41	80.18	664.33	75	952
3.10%	889.02	80.35	739.04	65	946
3.20%	843.71	78.75	698.44	82	948
3.30%	1021.60	78.73	839.46	79	952
3.40%	1074.61	77.71	865.44	106	942
3.50%	1143.97	76.39	930.19	108	959
3.60%	1256.87	76.82	1019.00	115	944
3.70%	1397.19	75.48	1129.65	130	942
3.80%	1423.75	74.42	1146.60	129	946
3.90%	1535.96	74.12	1213.57	144	941
4.00%	1483.26	73.61	1158.93	147	931
4.10%	1637.63	72.99	1279.82	161	927
4.20%	1877.44	73.25	1478.77	151	932
4.30%	2098.02	72.47	1625.29	177	943
4.40%	2280.17	71.36	1817.45	185	941
4.50%	2250.69	70.05	1718.15	204	919
4.60%	2491.95	69.47	1913.91	222	927
4.70%	2392.14	68.42	1837.04	236	930
4.80%	2721.53	68.68	2075.70	228	920
4.90%	3041.55	68.86	2307.34	235	926
5.00%	3401.44	67.07	2564.41	250	919
5.10%	3468.54	66.36	2566.74	282	909
5.20%	4011.41	66.05	2977.29	275	903
5.30%	4203.71	64.29	3202.83	302	898
5.40%	4219.95	65.20	3208.95	289	899
5.50%	5663.96	64.69	4207.12	307	915
5.60%	4570.36	62.79	3425.17	331	891
5.70%	5214.99	62.41	3836.56	336	904
5.80%	4697.04	63.21	3459.50	315	896
5.90%	7118.79	62.55	5176.39	319	897
6.00%	9033.40	61.41	7158.74	345	895
6.10%	8015.89	60.05	5748.85	344	894
6.20%	7945.07	59.55	5290.07	370	878
6.30%	6143.88	59.99	4270.22	367	883
6.40%	8403.78	59.18	6159.56	378	878
6.50%	10067.21	58.30	7221.81	384	881
6.60%	10907.08	55.72	8050.41	427	872
6.70%	8864.77	57.47	6060.64	402	870
6.80%	9520.30	56.75	6551.79	398	867
6.90%	14108.68	55.83	8449.09	413	857
7.00%	12378.59	53.39	7996.26	467	874
7.10%	8810.99	54.48	5187.79	455	854
7.20%	16092.56	54.73	11934.94	437	864
7.30%	11997.57	52.59	7924.93	466	847
7.40%	22907.77	56.00	15867.52	419	878
7.50%	17198.61	52.55	11493.78	464	849
7.60%	26246.70	50.86	18268.19	494	827
7.70%	22606.56	52.77	16234.45	489	832
7.80%	20700.74	48.82	12662.88	530	822
7.90%	19186.07	49.16	11423.63	517	823
8.00%	20122.97	48.21	12304.47	536	818
8.10%	23221.25	48.55	16273.15	526	804
8.20%	22712.33	47.38	14449.96	540	806
8.30%	23474.06	48.88	14101.75	512	822
8.40%	37136.24	46.22	23750.59	569	781
8.50%	23222.99	45.67	16053.97	565	797
8.60%	27725.77	43.45	17592.22	599	796
8.70%	33964.18	45.31	21171.31	567	798
8.80%	61009.90	44.46	41207.55	590	807
8.90%	40870.15	42.34	24206.74	610	792
9.00%	51109.97	42.01	26085.04	616	784
9.10%	42169.62	41.97	26448.79	621	762
9.20%	39293.76	41.48	23138.35	621	753
9.30%	50428.92	40.19	33017.63	624	757
9.40%	52993.02	41.91	30925.51	621	792
9.50%	69003.75	39.43	47231.67	664	767
9.60%	51122.80	39.05	26846.29	651	744
9.70%	52604.25	39.84	29633.13	625	748
9.80%	39279.55	38.96	21796.14	659	743
9.90%	168366.85	38.34	104598.91	650	743