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Merry Christmas ... and a quiz


slapdash

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I'm off on Sunday for two weeks holiday. Have a happy Christmas and a great New Year, everybody. Thought I'd leave you with a festive poker quiz to think about while you're cooking the turkey. I don't necessarily know the answers to all of these. (1) Playing a 10-player $10/$20 No Limit Holdem cash table on Boxing Day, everybody starts with $1000. On the first hand, you are dealt pocket aces under the gun, and being under the misapprehension that "St. Stephen's Day" refers to St. Stephen of Hungary, you go all in. However, Santa Claus brought you a Wand of Calling for Christmas, with which you can make each other player call or fold as you wish. Unfortunately, Santa didn't bring you the magic spectacles that you really wanted, with which you could have seen what everybody's cards were. Assuming you want to maximize your expected winnings on the hand, who do you force to call, and who do you force to fold? (2) Snowpoker.com have a special royal flush jackpot for Christmas. For the first royal flush, everybody at the table wins a year's supply of reindeer food. At each of two tables, one Texas Holdem and one seven card Stud, 7 players sit down and proceed to call/check every hand down in the hope of winning the jackpot. Assuming they play the same number of hands per hour, which table is more likely to win the jackpot? (3) Same as (2), but the rules say you have to use both of your pocket cards (in Holdem) or both of your first two downcards (in Stud) to make the royal flush. Which table is more likely to win the jackpot? (4) There is a lesser jackpot for the first straight flush: same rules as in (3). Which table is more likely to win it? (5) You're playing a heads up seven card stud cash game against Santa Claus. He's completely hammered you (Ho, ho, ho! :eyes). You're down to your last dollar, and the antes put you all in. You decide that, win or lose, this is your last hand. Santa deals, and being a generous and jolly guy, before he deals his own up-card, he lets you look at your first three cards and choose whether to play this hand as straight stud, razz, or stud hi/lo (eight or better). Assuming you want to maximize your expected winnings, are there any cards you could have that would make you choose hi/lo? (6) I get back on 1 January and won't play any focus games before then. Will I still be in the top 100 when I get back?

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Re: Merry Christmas ... and a quiz (1) All of them call (2) Chances are the same (3) Chances are the same (4) They are the same (am I missing something? :unsure) (5) No (6) I wont answer, because I know exactlt how many points you'll be on.....

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Re: Merry Christmas ... and a quiz

(4) am I missing something? :unsure
Wasn't intending to answer any questions before I left, apart from clarifying the questions if necessary, but ... yes! Admittedly, the chances of the two tables in (2), (3) and (4) are very close, but not identical.
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Re: Merry Christmas ... and a quiz right here are my answers. 1 anybody with a ace or pocket pair call ,all the rest fold 2 holdem table should be a slightly better bet for the royal flush 3 odds go back to even 4 same as above 5 yes aa2 suited not the best for razz with 2 aces and id rate it slightly better than playing it in stud high 6 yes ,i reckon you must have a couple of hundred at least in the last few weeks so you would be top 100 easy dunno if i got any right ,probably not;) :dude

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  • 3 weeks later...

Re: Merry Christmas ... and a quiz I'm back! Answers (where I know them) for the quiz ...

(1) Playing a 10-player $10/$20 No Limit Holdem cash table on Boxing Day, everybody starts with $1000. On the first hand, you are dealt pocket aces under the gun, and being under the misapprehension that "St. Stephen's Day" refers to St. Stephen of Hungary, you go all in. However, Santa Claus brought you a Wand of Calling for Christmas, with which you can make each other player call or fold as you wish. Unfortunately, Santa didn't bring you the magic spectacles that you really wanted, with which you could have seen what everybody's cards were. Assuming you want to maximize your expected winnings on the hand, who do you force to call, and who do you force to fold?
Of course, you're less likely to win if there are more players in the pot, but you'll win more when you do win, and this more than makes up for the smaller chance of winning ... until you get to 10 players: 8 players: 38.7% chance of winning, so expected return of $8000 * 0.387 = $3096 (ignoring blinds). 9 players: 34.7% chance of winning, so expected return of $9000 * 0.347 = $3123. 10 players: 31.1% chance of winning, so expected return of $10000 * 0.311 = $3110. So you should force all but one of the players to call, and that one might as well be the big blind, to make the pot slightly bigger.
(2) Snowpoker.com have a special royal flush jackpot for Christmas. For the first royal flush, everybody at the table wins a year's supply of reindeer food. At each of two tables, one Texas Holdem and one seven card Stud, 7 players sit down and proceed to call/check every hand down in the hope of winning the jackpot. Assuming they play the same number of hands per hour, which table is more likely to win the jackpot? (3) Same as (2), but the rules say you have to use both of your pocket cards (in Holdem) or both of your first two downcards (in Stud) to make the royal flush. Which table is more likely to win the jackpot? (4) There is a lesser jackpot for the first straight flush: same rules as in (3). Which table is more likely to win it?
In all of these, the chance of any particular player getting a royal/straight flush doesn't depend on which game it is: it's just the chance of making the hand from seven random cards (using two specified cards from the seven in problems (3) and (4)). The chance that somebody at the table will get a royal/straight flush is about seven times as high, but not exactly, as this counts more than once the occasions when more than one player gets one. So the question is really about which table is more likely to get more than one qualifying hand on the same deal. (2) If a particular player makes a royal flush in holdem, there's a 1 in 21 chance that he does it using the 5 community cards, so that all seven players make a royal flush. This is far higher than the chance that a second player makes a royal flush in stud. So the stud table is more likely to get a royal flush first. (3) With these rules, it's not possible to have two qualifying hands on the same deal in holdem, but it is in stud, so the holdem table is more likely to get a royal flush first. (4) This turns out to be very close, but the holdem table is slightly more likely. If you want actual figures for the chance of a qualifying hand: (2) Holdem: 217 times per million. Stud: 226 times per million. (3) Holdem: 107735 times per billion. Stud: 107729 times per billion. (4) Holdem: 1076737 times per billion. Stud: 1076697 times per billion.
(5) You're playing a heads up seven card stud cash game against Santa Claus. He's completely hammered you (Ho, ho, ho! :eyes). You're down to your last dollar, and the antes put you all in. You decide that, win or lose, this is your last hand. Santa deals, and being a generous and jolly guy, before he deals his own up-card, he lets you look at your first three cards and choose whether to play this hand as straight stud, razz, or stud hi/lo (eight or better). Assuming you want to maximize your expected winnings, are there any cards you could have that would make you choose hi/lo?
Don't know, but if there are such cards, then: Comparing straight stud with hi/lo, there's no difference if there's no qualifying low hand, and if there is one, then there's no difference to the high half of the pot, so you just need that if there's a qualifying low hand then the chance of winning low should be greater than the chance of winning high. Comparing razz with hi/lo, if there is a qualifying low hand then there's no difference to the low half of the pot, but for the other half of the pot, you're just comparing the chance of winning high with the chance of winning low, exactly as in the comparison of straight stud and hi/lo, so you need to do worse at hi/lo here. But if there's no qualifying low hand, the whole pot goes to the best high hand in hi/lo and to the best low hand in razz, so you need that if there's no qualifying low hand then the chance of winning low should be less than the chance of winning high. Maybe something like K32 would work?
(6) I get back on 1 January and won't play any focus games before then. Will I still be in the top 100 when I get back?
No. 105th.
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