Contrary System (US Sports based)

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Valiant' date=' your system is some sort of order in this crazy things (NFL and NBA). Sometimes I thought "that's impossible", even in NBA and next morning I'm wondering - it's possible. Excellent work! It's promised for MLB because it's totaly madness, too![/quote']Yomica thank you for your kind words, but I think that NFL isn't too crazy when you compare it to 'soccer'. I think that there is a small gap between the teams at the top and those near the bottom which means that you are perhaps more likely to get upsets in that sport. I think finding an edge that hints at who is more likely to cause an upset can prove to be very profitable. It isn't so unbelievable that teams who are winning (or at least 'covering') each week can become slightly complacent and the opposite can be said of the poor teams. They will get fired up and play angry if they lose two or three in a row.

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

San Antonio have won 2 ATS San Antonio Spurs @ Cleveland Cavaliers(+3.5) @ 1.95 :D New Orleans have won 2 ATS Golden State Warriors(-4) @ New Orleans Hornets @ 1.90 :D New York have lost 2 ATS New York Nicks(+9.5) @ Sacramento Kings @ 1.90 :( 3 x 10pt bets=30pts staked

2 winners 1 loser 30pts staked 38.50 returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1155.9 Total staked:1600 Number of bets:160 Winning bets:91 Losing bets:69 Strike rate:56.88% Yield:9.74% Profit (or Loss):155.9

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Washington have lost 2 ATS Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards(-5) @ 1.95 Toronto have lost 2 ATS Phoenix Suna @ Toronto Raptors(+8) @ 1.92 Miami have lost 3 ATS LA Clippers @ Miami Heat(+2) @ 1.95 Boston have won 2 ATS Cleveland Cavaliers(-3.5) @ Boston Celtics @ 1.90 Memphis have won 2 ATS Golden State Warriors(+4.5)) Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.90 Seattle have lost 4 ATS Seattle Supersonics(+9) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.92 Utah have lost 2 ATS Phladelphia 76ers @ Utah Jazz(-12) @ 2.00 New York have lost 3 ATS New York Nicks(+6.5) @ Portland Traiblazers @ 1.90 8 x 10pt bets= 80pts staked :hope

[Hodgey]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1155.9 Total staked:1600 Number of bets:160 Winning bets:91 Losing bets:69 Strike rate:56.88% Yield:9.74% Profit (or Loss):155.9

Excellent figures Mr V. :clap :clap Keep it up. :ok

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Excellent figures Mr V. :clap :clap Keep it up. :ok

Are they really mate? I honestly don't know, although profit is profit. Thanks anyway :ok

Washington have lost 2 ATS Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards(-5) @ 1.95 :( Toronto have lost 2 ATS Phoenix Suna @ Toronto Raptors(+8) @ 1.92 :D Miami have lost 3 ATS LA Clippers @ Miami Heat(+2) @ 1.95 :( Boston have won 2 ATS Cleveland Cavaliers(-3.5) @ Boston Celtics @ 1.90 :( half a bloody point :eyes Memphis have won 2 ATS Golden State Warriors(+4.5)) Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.90 :( Seattle have lost 4 ATS Seattle Supersonics(+9) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.92 :D Utah have lost 2 ATS Phladelphia 76ers @ Utah Jazz(-12) @ 2.00 :( New York have lost 3 ATS New York Nicks(+6.5) @ Portland Traiblazers @ 1.90 :D 8 x 10pt bets= 80pts staked :hope

3 winners 5 losers (although 1.5pts difference would have made it 5-3) 80pts staked 57.4pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1133.3 Total staked:1680 Number of bets:168 Winning bets:94 Losing bets:74 Strike rate:55.95% Yield:7.93% Profit (or Loss):133.3

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Detroit have lost 4 ATS Detroit Pistons(-7) @ New Orleans Hornets @ 1.92 Sacramento have won 2 ATS LA Lakers(+5) @ Sacramento Kings @ 1.95 2 x 10pt bets=20pts staked :hope

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Detroit have lost 4 ATS Detroit Pistons(-7) @ New Orleans Hornets @ 1.92 :D Sacramento have won 2 ATS LA Lakers(+5) @ Sacramento Kings @ 1.95 :D 2 x 10pt bets=20pts staked :hope

2 winners 0 losers 20pts staked 38.70pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1152 Total staked:1700 Number of bets:170 Winning bets:96 Losing bets:74 Strike rate:56.47% Yield:8.94% Profit (or Loss):152

[Hodgey]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Are they really mate? I honestly don't know, although profit is profit. Thanks anyway :ok

They certainly are mate. If your yield is still around the 8-10% mark after 500 bets then I'd say you're onto something very very good. :ok I know nowt about US sports but will be keeping an eye on this thread fron now on. :ok

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Well in that case we'll find out together, and thanks for the encouragement. :ok Orlando have won 3 ATS Charlotte Bobcats(+9) @ Orlando Magic @ 1.90 Atlanta have lost 6 ATS Atlanta Hawks(+7) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.90 Washington have lost 3 ATS LA Clippers @ Washington Wizards(-6) @ 1.95 Dallas have won 2 and San Antonio have lost 2 ATS Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs(-5) @ 1.95 Milwaukee have won 2 ATS Cleveland Cavaliers(+4.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 1.90 LA Lakers have won 2 ATS Denver Nuggets(+5) @ LA Lakers @ 1.90 6 x 10pt bets=60pts staked

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Well in that case we'll find out together, and thanks for the encouragement. :ok Orlando have won 3 ATS Charlotte Bobcats(+9) @ Orlando Magic @ 1.90 :( Atlanta have lost 6 ATS Atlanta Hawks(+7) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.90 :( Washington have lost 3 ATS LA Clippers @ Washington Wizards(-6) @ 1.95 :D Dallas have won 2 and San Antonio have lost 2 ATS Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs(-5) @ 1.95 :( Milwaukee have won 2 ATS Cleveland Cavaliers(+4.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 1.90 :D LA Lakers have won 2 ATS Denver Nuggets(+5) @ LA Lakers @ 1.90 :( 6 x 10pt bets=60pts staked

4 losers 2 winners 60pts staked 38.50pts returned

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Not sure how the NFL bets will pan out seeing as its the play-offs now, but here goes. NFL Kansas have won 2 and Indianapolis have lost 2 ATS Kansas City @ indianapolis Colts(-7) @1.90 Dallas have lost 2 and Seattle have won 2 ATS Dallas Cowboys(+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 2.00 NBA Atlanta have lost 7 ATS LA Clippers @ Atlanta Hawks(+4.5) @ 1.92 Portland have lost 2 ATS Portland Trailblazers(+9) @ Sacramento Kings @ 1.92 4 x 10pt bets :hope

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Not sure how the NFL bets will pan out seeing as its the play-offs now, but here goes. NFL Kansas have won 2 and Indianapolis have lost 2 ATS Kansas City @ indianapolis Colts(-7) @1.90 Dallas have lost 2 and Seattle have won 2 ATS Dallas Cowboys(+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 2.00 NBA Atlanta have lost 7 ATS LA Clippers @ Atlanta Hawks(+4.5) @ 1.92 Portland have lost 2 ATS Portland Trailblazers(+9) @ Sacramento Kings @ 1.92 4 x 10pt bets :hope

0 losers 4 winners 40pts staked 77.40pts returned. Friday 4 losers 2 winners 60pts staked 38.50pts returned Friday/ Saturday combined 4 losers 6 winners 100pts staked 115.90pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1167.9 Total staked:1800 Number of bets:180 Winning bets:102 Losing bets:78 Strike rate:56.67% Yield:9.33% Profit (or Loss):167.9

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) NFL Philadelphia have won 3 ATS New York Giants(+7) @ Phiadelphia Eagles @ 1.91 NBA Toronto are on a 2 game winning streak ATS Washington Wizards(+1.5) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.90 San Antonio have lost 3 ATS San Antonio Spurs(-8) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.94 Orlando have won 4 ATS Boston Celtics(+8) @ Orlando Magic @ 1.90 Golden State have lost 2 ATS Golden State Warriors(+13) @ Phoenix Suns @ 1.90 Miami have lost 5 ATS Miami Heat(+2.5) @ Portland Traiblazers @ 1.90 6 x 10pt bets :hope

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

NFL Philadelphia have won 3 ATS New York Giants(+7) @ Phiadelphia Eagles @ 1.91 :D NBA Toronto are on a 2 game winning streak ATS Washington Wizards(+1.5) @ Toronto Raptors @ 1.90 :( San Antonio have lost 3 ATS San Antonio Spurs(-8) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.94 :D Orlando have won 4 ATS Boston Celtics(+8) @ Orlando Magic @ 1.90 PUSH no bet Golden State have lost 2 ATS Golden State Warriors(+13) @ Phoenix Suns @ 1.90 :( Miami have lost 5 ATS Miami Heat(+2.5) @ Portland Traiblazers @ 1.90 :D 6 x 10pt bets :hope

1 Push 2 losers 3 winners 50pts staked 57.5pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1175.4 Total staked:1850 Number of bets:185 Winning bets:105 Losing bets:80 Strike rate:56.76% Yield:9.48% Profit (or Loss):175.4

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) LA Clippers have lost 2 ATS LA Clippers @ New Orleans Hornets Denver have lost 3 ATS Milwaukee Bucks @ Denver Nuggets I'll put the lines and odds up later.

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

LA Clippers have lost 2 ATS LA Clippers @ New Orleans Hornets Denver have lost 3 ATS Milwaukee Bucks @ Denver Nuggets I'll put the lines and odds up later.

LA Clippers(-6.5) @ 1.95 Denver Nuggets (-3) @ 1.90 2 x 10pt staked :hope

[Pitmaster]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Another good day...Graet system Valiant !! Keep it up!

[Hodgey]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) More good results recently, nice one mate. :clap

Something I have been watching elsewhere is a study regarding the parity of NFL teams and ATS (Against The Spread or Handicap) betting. The thinking behind the theory is that because of this parity on any given Sunday one NFL team can beat another. This is backed up by a study which claims that a high percentage of teams who have an ATS streak of 2 or more wins or losses would do the opposite in the third game. The longest winning streak (ATS) of the NFL teams is just under 2.84 games on average, and the longest losing streak (ATS) is at 2.8 games, on average. :hope

A couple of questions if I may Mr V. Do you have similar stats for the NBA? Do you have the split of results between NFL and NBA (forgive me if I missed them in this thread) I see you said the NFL was in the playoffs - When do the NBA and NFL season's normally start and run too? No hurry for these answers if you're busy. :)

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

More good results recently, nice one mate. :clap A couple of questions if I may Mr V. Do you have similar stats for the NBA? Not at all. I started this system on here to see if we would get similar success with the huge number of games that you have in an NBA season. Do you have the split of results between NFL and NBA (forgive me if I missed them in this thread) Before the NFL playoffs started I did a regular season summary of the NFL bets only. I see you said the NFL was in the playoffs - When do the NBA and NFL season's normally start and run too? NFL starts around September until beginning Feb NBA starts early October until mid April No hurry for these answers if you're busy. :)

Just to add, I'm hoping to test this system in MLB, which would ensure the system was running over the 3 sports for most of the year.

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

LA Clippers(-6.5) @ 1.95 Denver Nuggets (-3) @ 1.90 2 x 10pt staked :hope

Thanks guys :ok 0 losers 2 winners 20pts staked 38.50 returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1193.90 Total staked:1870 Number of bets:187 Winning bets:107 Losing bets:80 Strike rate:57.21% Yield:10.37% Profit (or Loss):193.90

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Indiana have lost 3 ATS Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers(-8) @ 1.94 Corals LA Lakers have won 4 and Memphis have lost 2 ATS LA Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies(+3) @ 1.95 Bet365 Phoenix have won 2 ATS Seattle Supersonics(+14) @ Phoenix Suns @ 2.04 Mansion Sacramento have lost 2 ATS Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5) @ 1.96 Corals 4 x 10pt bets :hope

[davidmphill]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Great thread you got going here Andy and with some nice rewards too. Long may it continue for you. Any plans to put profits towards a trip to the Super Bowl in 2008?

[Hodgey]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Thanks Mr V. Good luck tonight. :hope And it will certainly be interesting to see how it fares in the MLB too.

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Great thread you got going here Andy and with some nice rewards too. Long may it continue for you. Any plans to put profits towards a trip to the Super Bowl in 2008?

Cheers Dave! :D I had a long day on the road today Dave and had plenty of time to wonder how far this could take me....:$ I was thinking about running a 'sensible' system, but also putting a bankroll to one side with the intent of a glory hunt. My primary aim would be to see a game on the east coast (Green Bay are hosting Oakland next year), secondary aim to get to Oaklands Black-hole, and obviously the ultimate of a superbowl ticket. Saying that I could always find someone I know living in a city like....oh I dunno..... Denver and maybe drop by for a visit? :lol :lol :lol

[davidmphill]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Cheers Dave! :D I had a long day on the road today Dave and had plenty of time to wonder how far this could take me....:$ I was thinking about running a 'sensible' system, but also putting a bankroll to one side with the intent of a glory hunt. My primary aim would be to see a game on the east coast (Green Bay are hosting Oakland next year), secondary aim to get to Oaklands Black-hole, and obviously the ultimate of a superbowl ticket. Saying that I could always find someone I know living in a city like....oh I dunno..... Denver and maybe drop by for a visit? :lol :lol :lol

Hey you never know, we get plenty of chances to get hold of Bronco's tickets and they go on sale in July so I'll be looking to get my hands on some. SF have visited there in the last 2 seasons now I believe, no doubt they'll miss out on Invesco for another 3 years while i'm there. I intend to go to the West Coast to see a proper side play and no its not the Chargers!! If you're in town you're more than welcome!

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Indiana have lost 3 ATS Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers(-8) @ 1.94 Corals :D LA Lakers have won 4 and Memphis have lost 2 ATS LA Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies(+3) @ 1.95 Bet365 :D Phoenix have won 2 ATS Seattle Supersonics(+14) @ Phoenix Suns @ 2.04 Mansion :D Sacramento have lost 2 ATS Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5) @ 1.96 Corals :( 4 x 10pt bets :hope

1 loser 3 winners 40pts staked 59.30pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1213.20 Total staked:1910 Number of bets:191 Winning bets:110 Losing bets:81 Strike rate:57.59% Yield:11.16% Profit (or Loss):213.20

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) New York have won 2 ATS Philadelphia 76ers(+4) @ New York Nicks @ 1.92 Expekt Charlotte have lost 2 ATS Charlotte Bobcats(+9) @ Detroit Pistons @ 1.92 @ Expekt Milwaukee have lost 2 ATS Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks(+2.5) @ 1.9 @ Stan James Portland have lost 2 ATS Portland Trailblazers(+13.5) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 1.9 BetDirect San Antonio have won 2 ATS San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets(+4.5) @ 1.95 Bet365 Seattle have won 2 ATS Miami Heat(+1.5) @ Seattle Supersonics @ 1.95 Betfair Orlando have won 5 and Golden State have lost 3 ATS Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors (-3) @ 2.03 Coral 7 x 10pt bets :hope

[mcgin]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Valiant, Have you any stats for teams that are 3 ATS, 4 ATS etc? Presumably if your theory is correct, the strike rate for these would be even higher then those with only 2 ATS?

[mcgin]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Also have you back tested this, or if you know where I could get the historical data for the spreads I can test it out for you/

[Valiant23]

Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) No mate I haven't checked at which point its most likely an ATS streak will end. In a way we're chasing our losses because teams with streaks of 3 and above have already cost us as they're already likely to have been picked at 2 ATS. I think one of thos playing tonight is Golden State. If I was losing consistently on 2 game streaks then I may have lookied into it, but I think enough come in (for me anyway) not to worry.