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Contrary System (US Sports based)


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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) All wins/losses are consecutive and ATS Minnesota have lost 4 and Indiana have won 2 Minnesota Timberwolves(+5.5) @ Indiana Pacers @ 1.9 Golden State have won 2 and Miami have lost 2 Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat(-5.5) @ 1.94 Atlanta have lost 2 Atlanta Hawks (+10) @ Detroit Pistons @ 1.93 San Antonio have lost 3 and New Orleans have won 3 San Antonio Spurs(-8.5) @ New Orleans Hornets @ 1.92 LA Clippers have lost 6 LA Clippers(+8) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.9 Milwaukee have won 4 New Jersey Nets(+4) @ Milwaukke Bucks @ 1.94 Charlotte have won 2 and Chicago have lost 4 Charlotte Bobcats @ Chicago Bulls(-10.5) @ 1.92 Toronto have won 2 Toronto Raptors @ Seattle Supersonics(-5.5) @ 1.95 8 x 10pt bets :hope

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

All wins/losses are consecutive and ATS Minnesota have lost 4 and Indiana have won 2 Minnesota Timberwolves(+5.5) @ Indiana Pacers @ 1.9 :D Golden State have won 2 and Miami have lost 2 Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat(-5.5) @ 1.94 :D Atlanta have lost 2 Atlanta Hawks (+10) @ Detroit Pistons @ 1.93 :( San Antonio have lost 3 and New Orleans have won 3 San Antonio Spurs(-8.5) @ New Orleans Hornets @ 1.92 :D LA Clippers have lost 6 LA Clippers(+8) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.9 :D Milwaukee have won 4 New Jersey Nets(+4) @ Milwaukke Bucks @ 1.94 :( Charlotte have won 2 and Chicago have lost 4 Charlotte Bobcats @ Chicago Bulls(-10.5) @ 1.92 :D Toronto have won 2 Toronto Raptors @ Seattle Supersonics(-5.5) @ 1.95 :D 8 x 10pt bets :hope
6 winners 2 losers 80pts staked 115.30pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1074.8 Total staked:1140 Number of bets:114 Winning bets:63 Losing bets:51 Strike rate:55.26% Yield:6.56% Profit (or Loss):74.80
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) NFL Carolina have lost 4 ATS Carolina Panthers(+6) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 1.93 Houston have lost 2 ATS Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans(+9.5) @ 1.9 Pittsburgh have won 3 ATS Baltimore Ravens(+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1.92 Detroit have lost 2 ATS Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions(+6.5) @ 1.9 San Diego have won 2 and Seattle have lost 2 ATS San Diego Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks(+4) @ 2.00 I'll include Christmas Day games here; NBA (25/12) LA Lakers have won 3 ATS LA Lakers @ Miami Heat(-1) @ 1.95 6x10pt bets :hope

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Hi Valiant, I just wanted to say thanks for posting up your system, the rationale behind which seems sound, and the results are looking very promising. Hope it continues for you. I have one question for you: I have read up about another similar system on the net, which I think was called something like "regression to the average". I think that system takes into account whether a team is below or above the expected spread for the season, by totalling all the spreads for the games the team has been involved in. The reasoning is that all teams will revert towards the expectation at some point, ie the best performing teams will fail to perform quite as well and the worst performing teams will improve, all relative to the projected spread though. I'm not sure I have explained that well, but I was just wondering whether you think that it might improve the yield further if this were to be taken into account, ie a team may have lost the last 2 ATS but have performed significantly better ATS over their previous games in the preceding period than was "expected" by the market, meaning that even though they have "lost" the last 2 games, they are still on a path of regression towards the average. Be interested to hear your views on this.

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

NFL Carolina have lost 4 ATS Carolina Panthers(+6) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 1.93 :D Houston have lost 2 ATS Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans(+9.5) @ 1.9 :D Pittsburgh have won 3 ATS Baltimore Ravens(+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1.92 :D Detroit have lost 2 ATS Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions(+6.5) @ 1.9 :D San Diego have won 2 and Seattle have lost 2 ATS San Diego Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks(+4) @ 2.00 :D I'll include Christmas Day games here; NBA (25/12) LA Lakers have won 3 ATS LA Lakers @ Miami Heat(-1) @ 1.95 :D 6x10pt bets :hope
6 winners 0 losers 60pts staked 116 pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1130.8 Total staked:1200 Number of bets:120 Winning bets:69 Losing bets:51 Strike rate:57.5% Yield:10.9% Profit (or Loss):130.80
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Washington have won 2 ATS Memphis Grizzlies(+8) @ Washington Wizards @ 1.9 New Jersey have lost 2 and Detroit have won 2 ATS New Jersey Nets(+7) @ Detroit Pistons @ 1.9 Milwaukee have won 5 ATS Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs(-9) @ 1.9 Dallas have won 4 ATS Charlotte Bobcats(+13) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 1.9 Utah have lost 2 ATS LA Clippers @ Utah Jazz(-8) @ 1.98 Boston have lost 2 ATS Boston Celtics(+5.5) @ Denver Nuggets @ 2.2 Philadelphia have won 2 ATS Philadelphia 76ers @ Golden State Warriors(-7) @ 2.14 7 x 10pt bets=70pts staked dosheroonie: An interesting theory and I'll get back to your question I promise, but not right now. I wil probably be out for the afternoon and may have to go to work tonight. :puke

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Hi Valiant, I just wanted to say thanks for posting up your system, the rationale behind which seems sound, and the results are looking very promising. Hope it continues for you. I have one question for you: I have read up about another similar system on the net, which I think was called something like "regression to the average". I think that system takes into account whether a team is below or above the expected spread for the season, by totalling all the spreads for the games the team has been involved in. The reasoning is that all teams will revert towards the expectation at some point, ie the best performing teams will fail to perform quite as well and the worst performing teams will improve, all relative to the projected spread though. I'm not sure I have explained that well, but I was just wondering whether you think that it might improve the yield further if this were to be taken into account, ie a team may have lost the last 2 ATS but have performed significantly better ATS over their previous games in the preceding period than was "expected" by the market, meaning that even though they have "lost" the last 2 games, they are still on a path of regression towards the average. Be interested to hear your views on this.
Right mate I've been thinking about what you're saying and I don't think that a subjective element would help this system, and while I sort of understand the theory and explanantion, it seems to me that what is being suggested is that you take the average spread on the market and compare it with the average result ATS and deciding whether a team is over-performing or not. If they are over-performing then you'd be more inclined to back against them? If you could provide an example from one of Wk17's NFL games I may understand it better though. However my simple system is trying to capitalise (I won't say works as it is a work in progress) on several things.
  • A team's winning or losing streak will always end.
  • The betting public and last weeks results affect the Vegas line makers in such a way that they have to provide incorrect lines (imo). An extreme example of this would be when Indianapolis would play Oakland. Public expectation will be focused on the Colts explosive offence, andf the line makers will know that if they set the line at say 43.5, then they will get caned on the over, so they cannot afford to show any respect for the ability of the Oakland defence, which should push the line to mid 30's. They have to do the same when setting the spread margin. If a team scores hardly anything in the previous game, then they will be expected to do the same this week and the line has to be adjusted accordingly.
  • Parity or "On Any Given Sunday". There is a fine line between a winning team and a losing team in the NFL. I'm hoping that this is true in NBA too.

I do think that the theory you have provided could work on its own, and it's possible that if the picks in your theory chose some of the same games that my theory did then it may give added confidence. :ok

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Washington have won 2 ATS Memphis Grizzlies(+8) @ Washington Wizards @ 1.9 :( New Jersey have lost 2 and Detroit have won 2 ATS New Jersey Nets(+7) @ Detroit Pistons @ 1.9 :D Milwaukee have won 5 ATS Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs(-9) @ 1.9 :( Dallas have won 4 ATS Charlotte Bobcats(+13) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 1.9 Push=no bet Utah have lost 2 ATS LA Clippers @ Utah Jazz(-8) @ 1.98 :D Boston have lost 2 ATS Boston Celtics(+5.5) @ Denver Nuggets @ 2.2 :( Philadelphia have won 2 ATS Philadelphia 76ers @ Golden State Warriors(-7) @ 2.14 :D 7 x 10pt bets=70pts staked
1 push - stake returned 60 pts staked 60.20 returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1131.0 Total staked:1260 Number of bets:126 Winning bets:72 Losing bets:54 Strike rate:57.14% Yield:10.4% Profit (or Loss):131.0
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Washington have won 3 ATS Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Bobcats(+4.5) @ 2.00 Minnesota have won 2 ATS Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors(-1.5) @ 1.93 Houston have lost 2 ATS Houston Rockets(+5.5) @ New Jersey Nets @ 1.9 Milwaukee have won 6 ATS Milwaukee Bucks (+1) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.98 Miami have won 2 ATS Miami Heat(+6) @ Chicago Bulls @ 1.92 Boston have lost 3 ATS Boston Celtics(+7.5) @ LA Clippers @ 1.92 6 x 10pt bets=60pts staked

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Washington have won 3 ATS Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Bobcats(+4.5) @ 2.00 :( Minnesota have won 2 ATS Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors(-1.5) @ 1.93 :D Houston have lost 2 ATS Houston Rockets(+5.5) @ New Jersey Nets @ 1.9 :D Milwaukee have won 6 ATS Milwaukee Bucks (+1) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.98 :D Miami have won 2 ATS Miami Heat(+6) @ Chicago Bulls @ 1.92 :\ - Push Boston have lost 3 ATS Boston Celtics(+7.5) @ LA Clippers @ 1.92 :( 6 x 10pt bets=60pts staked
1 bet returned 3 winners 2 losers 50pts staked 58.10pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1139.10 Total staked:1310 Number of bets:131 Winning bets:75 Losing bets:56 Strike rate:57.25% Yield:10.62% Profit (or Loss):139.10
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Hello Valiant Glad to see your system continues to perform extremely well. I must stress that I have not performed any back testing on the regression to the average system, but I would expect it would identify a number of similar selections to your system. Looking at last week's matches for an example, I will take 2 matches. 1) Baltimore At Pittsburgh; and 2) San Diego at Seattle. I think both were selections under your system. Under the regression to the average expectation Pittsburgh had (in their previous 5 matches) been performing above expectation in that that they were +30 against the accumulated spread over the corresponding period. However, Baltimore were +41.5 over the same period, so the regression to the average suggests that both could be expected to perform less well, meaning that this would be a no bet. For SD v Seattle, both were on 2 match streaks against the spread; SD positive and Seattle negative. SD for their last 5 matches were +22, and Seattle were -20.5, so the regression to the average expectation would be that Seattle would improve and SD would be due to dip. Anyway, I am not suggesting that you should tweak your system, but I was just curious as to whether you think there might be any merit in this approach. Would be interested to hear what you reckon. Cheers.

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) I see it much much clearer now thanks! :ok In the same way as my system focuses on the hot or cold streak ending, so to does yours... However I would probably interpret the figures differently.

1) Baltimore At Pittsburgh; and 2) San Diego at Seattle. I think both were selections under your system. Under the regression to the average expectation Pittsburgh had (in their previous 5 matches) been performing above expectation in that that they were +30 against the accumulated spread over the corresponding period. However, Baltimore were +41.5 over the same period, so the regression to the average suggests that both could be expected to perform less well, meaning that this would be a no bet. For SD v Seattle, both were on 2 match streaks against the spread; SD positive and Seattle negative. SD for their last 5 matches were +22, and Seattle were -20.5, so the regression to the average expectation would be that Seattle would improve and SD would be due to dip.
In example 1, I would maybe look at the postive value's of both team's Baltimore +41.5 and Pitts +30 and maybe use the difference between the two values (+11.5 in Baltimore's favour) as an indicator. In fact in example 2 you could use the same indicator and suggest that it was Seattle's game. The fact that they lost it in the last 30 seconds (SU) shouldn't really surprise us too much.
Anyway, I am not suggesting that you should tweak your system, but I was just curious as to whether you think there might be any merit in this approach. Would be interested to hear what you reckon.
I'm certainly not so arrogant as too say I won't listen to suggestions, in fact it's nice having input from someone tbh. I certainly think your system has merit, and I'll be interested in seeing how it works out. I know it's too late for the NFL season, but why not try it out on the NBA? I know you'll receive nothing but encouragement if you paper trail it in here. :ok
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Washington have won 4 ATS Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic(+6.5) @ 1.90 Milwaukee have won 7 ATS* Milwaukke Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers(-4.5) @ 1.90 Detroit have lost 2 ATS Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons(-6.5) @ 1.92 Denver have won 2 ATS and New Orleans have lost 2 ATS Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Nets(+3.5) @ 1.91 Atlanta have lost 4 ATS Atlanta Hawks(+8) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.92 Phoenix have won 2 ATS NY Nicks(+13) @ Phoenix Suns @ 1.92 Philadelphia have lost 2 ATS Philadelphia 76ers(+4.5) @ Portland Trailblazers @ 1.9 Boston have lost 4 ATS Boston (+9.5) @ Golden State Warriors @ 1.92 Sacramento have won 2 ATS Sacramento Kings @ LA Clippers(-3.5) @ 1.9 9 x 10pt bets=90 pts staked

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Milwaukee have won 6 ATS Milwaukee Bucks (+1) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 1.98 :D
I should have bet against Milwaukee and this would have ended up as a loser. However I can't be arsed to re calculate everything, so nothing has changed. I'm just being honest.
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Washington have won 4 ATS Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic(+6.5) @ 1.90 :D Milwaukee have won 7 ATS* Milwaukke Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers(-4.5) @ 1.90 :D Detroit have lost 2 ATS Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons(-6.5) @ 1.92 :( Denver have won 2 ATS and New Orleans have lost 2 ATS Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Nets(+3.5) @ 1.91 :D Atlanta have lost 4 ATS Atlanta Hawks(+8) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.92 :( Phoenix have won 2 ATS NY Nicks(+13) @ Phoenix Suns @ 1.92 :( Philadelphia have lost 2 ATS Philadelphia 76ers(+4.5) @ Portland Trailblazers @ 1.9 :D Boston have lost 4 ATS Boston (+9.5) @ Golden State Warriors @ 1.92 :( Sacramento have won 2 ATS Sacramento Kings @ LA Clippers(-3.5) @ 1.9 :D 9 x 10pt bets=90 pts staked
5 winners 4 losers 90pts staked 95.10pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1153.20 Total staked:1410 Number of bets:141 Winning bets:81 Losing bets:60 Strike rate:57.45% Yield:10.87% Profit (or Loss):153.20
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) NFL New York have lost 2 ATS New York Giants(-1.5) @ Washington Redskins @ 1.92 NBA Miami have lost 2 ATS Miami Heat(+11) @ orlando Magic @ 1.9 Indiana have won 2 ATS Charlotte Bobcats(+11) @ Indiana Pacers @ 1.92 Memphis have lost 2 ATS Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies(-5.5) @ 1.92 4 x 10pt bets=40pts staked :hope

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

NFL New York have lost 2 ATS New York Giants(-1.5) @ Washington Redskins @ 1.92 :D NBA Miami have lost 2 ATS Miami Heat(+11) @ orlando Magic @ 1.9 :( Indiana have won 2 ATS Charlotte Bobcats(+11) @ Indiana Pacers @ 1.92 :D Memphis have lost 2 ATS Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies(-5.5) @ 1.92 :D 4 x 10pt bets=40pts staked :hope
3 winners 1 loser 40pts staked 57.60pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1170.80 Total staked:1450 Number of bets:145 Winning bets:84 Losing bets:61 Strike rate:57.93% Yield:11.78% Profit (or Loss):170.80
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) NBA Atlanta have lost 5 ATS Atlanta Hawks(+14) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 1.93 LA Clippers have won 2 ATS New York Nicks(+7) @ LA Clippers @ 1.90 Phoenix have won 3 and Detroit have lost 3 ATS Phoenix Suns @ Detroit Pistons(+4) @ 1.95 Houston have won 2 ATS Memphis Grizzlies(+8.5) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.9 Dallas have lost 2 ATS Dallas(-5) @ Denver Nuggets @ 1.9 NFL Chicago have lost 2 ATS Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears(-3) @ 1.9 Miami have lost 2 ATS Miami Dolphins(+9) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1.92 Jacksonville have lost 2 ATS Jacksonville(+2.5) @ Kansas City @ 1.93 St. Louis have won 2 ATS St. Louis Rams @ Minnesota Vikings(+2.5) @ 1.9 Oakland have lost 4 and New York Jets have won 2 ATS Oakland Raiders(+12.5) @ New York Jets @ 1.9 Atlanta have lost 2 and Philadelphia have won 2 ATS Atlanta Falcons(+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1.9 Tampa Bay have won 2 ATS Seattle Seahawks(+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 2.00 12 x 10pt bets=120pts staked :hope

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Hello Valiant23, Fist of all, excuse me for my poor english. I follow you great system and i would like to know if this system works for : * all us sports Over/Under ? *Soccer Asian Handicap ? I think yes because bookies adjust also over/under...but i'm not sure:\ So, it will be interesting to backesting soccer AH and Over/Under Do you think it give the same % of success than NBA ats ? Thank you for your help and keep the hand. :D

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Hi Chris, thanks for taking an interest. :ok

I follow you great system and i would like to know if this system works for : * all us sports Over/Under ? I'd like to think so but it's too early to tell. I plan on having a look at Baseball next. * soccer asian handicap ? I doubt it as there is a wider range of abilities of teams in soccer, although it may do. I think yes because bookies adjust also over/under...but i'm not sure:\ So, it will be interesting to backesting soccer AH and Over/Under Do you think it give the same % of success than NBA ats ? Thank you for your help and keep the hand. :D
I am as confident as I can be that this system works well in the NFL, however regarding the NBA I'm not as confident because of the irregular nature of the NBA schedule, where teams play games on consecutive nights. At the end of the NFL season I'll provide figures on just the NFL part of the thread, which should give us a clear indication as to whether the NBA part works as well as I hope it does. By the way, your English is good. :clap
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Thank you for my english valiant, But i must improve it..;) Regarding the NBA ats, i think is the same way than NFL because bookies adjust handicap and take in consideration team who plays games consecutive night...but i'm perhaps in wrong. My other interrogation is the money management. I think it's important not to lose yield points because of not powerful money management. Valiant, do you think it's the best money management for this system ?

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Valiant, your system is some sort of order in this crazy things (NFL and NBA). Sometimes I thought "that's impossible", even in NBA and next morning I'm wondering - it's possible. Excellent work! It's promised for MLB because it's totaly madness, too!

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Nice work Val
Missed this yesterday. Cheers mate :ok
NBA Atlanta have lost 5 ATS Atlanta Hawks(+14) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 1.93 :\ PUSH-no bet LA Clippers have won 2 ATS New York Nicks(+7) @ LA Clippers @ 1.90 :( Phoenix have won 3 and Detroit have lost 3 ATS Phoenix Suns @ Detroit Pistons(+4) @ 1.95 :( Houston have won 2 ATS Memphis Grizzlies(+8.5) @ Houston Rockets @ 1.9 :D Dallas have lost 2 ATS Dallas(-5) @ Denver Nuggets @ 1.9 :( NFL Chicago have lost 2 ATS Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears(-3) @ 1.9 :( Miami have lost 2 ATS Miami Dolphins(+9) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1.92 :D Jacksonville have lost 2 ATS Jacksonville(+2.5) @ Kansas City @ 1.93 :( St. Louis have won 2 ATS St. Louis Rams @ Minnesota Vikings(+2.5) @ 1.9 :( Oakland have lost 4 and New York Jets have won 2 ATS Oakland Raiders(+12.5) @ New York Jets @ 1.9 :( Atlanta have lost 2 and Philadelphia have won 2 ATS Atlanta Falcons(+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1.9 :D Tampa Bay have won 2 ATS Seattle Seahawks(+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 2.00 :D 12 x 10pt bets=120pts staked :hope
1 no bet 4 winners 7 losers 110 pts staked 77.20pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1138 Total staked:1560 Number of bets:156 Winning bets:88 Losing bets:68 Strike rate:56.41% Yield:8.72% Profit (or Loss):138
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based) Just done a quick count of the NFL bets. Placed 30 x 10pt bets=300pts staked 12 losers 18 winners returns 347.90 Total staked:300 Number of bets:30 Winning bets:18 Losing bets:12 Strike rate:60% Yield:15.97% Profit (or Loss):47.90 I'll certainly run the NFL as a separate system next year. :ok

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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

Charlotte Bobcats have won 2 ATS Minnesota Timberwolves(-2.5) @ Charlotte Bobcats @ 1.94 :D 10pts staked. :hope
1 winner 10pts staked 19.40pts returned Starting bank:1000 Current bank:1147.4 Total staked:1570 Number of bets:157 Winning bets:89 Losing bets:68 Strike rate:56.69% Yield:9.39% Profit (or Loss):147.4
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Re: Contrary System (US Sports based)

San Antonio have won 2 ATS San Antonio Spurs @ Cleveland Cavaliers(+3.5) @ 1.95 New Orleans have won 2 ATS Golden State Warriors(-4) @ New Orleans Hornets @ 1.90 New York have lost 2 ATS New York Nicks(+9.5) @ Sacramento Kings @ 1.90 3 x 10pt bets=30pts staked

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