^Newbie^ Posted November 30, 2006 Share Posted November 30, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) top class tipping mate . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted December 1, 2006 Author Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Cairns vs Adelaide Cairns come into this game in average form against a team who has been struggling all year in Adelaide. The 36ers are 10th on the ladder and having an awful season, but the most concerning part of this is the fact they have won only 2 games out of 7 on the road with wins coming against the Hawks when they were on a bad run, and the Razorbacks who have only who have only won 2 of 8 at home this season and are by far the worst side in the league, and that win was by only 2 points. Adding their problems is the bad form of captain Brett Maher who just looks a shadow of him formerself, Darren Ng will miss this match due to sitting his medical exams, meaning their squad will be even more depeated. Yes things arent going well for Adelaide and they face one of the best home sides in the league in the Cairns. Cairns have actually won 6 from 7 at home with the only loss coming against the leagues benchmark - Melbourne. Considering they were up at 3qtr time and had some of the worst free throw accuracy in NBL history in that match, they really should be 7 from 7. Away from home Cairns are a different side, but here at the 'Snakepit' they have a fortress which is very hard to win in. They are lead by the brilliant Martin Cattalini who I believe is the best player in the league and amazingly in his last match he scored 51 points! Considering Adelaides defence is virtually non-existent at the moment, Cattalini should have a field day in tonights match. Add his form to the form of players such as Darnell Mee, Aaron Grabau, Anthony Stewart and the inconsistent but great player in Kevin Owens. This sure looks a daunting task for Adelaide and I really dont fancy them here. As has been the case all week in this league, the favourite is paying so little thats its hardly worth backing them for the win. So i will take my luck with the Over 10.5 margin here at $2.10 however the most worrying thing about this is the fact only 2 of the Taipans 8 wins have been over the margin of 10.5, but the fact they are brilliant at home and Adelaide are missing Darren Ng and the poor form of some of their players makes this look a bit more atractive, also Adelaide have lost 5 away matches, with 3 of them over 10.5. Martin Cattalini was able to score 51 points against the leagues best defence in Sam McKinnon & Dil Boucher, so i hate to imagine what he will do tonight. He is paying $2.25 to score 31 points or over and i find that very very generous, so ill take that for sure. Cairns on the -9.5 line at $1.90 is awesome too so ill take that. I also like the Over 198.5 points line aswell. Computer Generated Prediction: Taipans2727252610536ers2423242495 Suggested Bets to Look Into: Cairns Over 10.5 at $2.10 Cairns -8.5 at $1.90 Martin Cattalini to Score 31 Points or more at $2.25 Total Points Over 198.5 at $1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) A word of warning re the total .. I spoke with both teams today (Blacky, Cat and Brett Maher) and the word 'defense' was littered throughout all their responses .. The Taipans are absolutely adamant about avoiding a basket trading war with Adelaide and want to win this game through their defense .. It was a similar theme from Adelaide, who boast the third worst defensive record in the league and realise if they're going to turn things around it needs to start there .. Having said all that I'm not all that comfortable mentioning UNDER and ADELAIDE in the same sentence at the moment .. I'm 17-3 on totals this season in NBL / NBA (no bullsh#t) and this one just doesn't quite sit easily with me as far as an UNDERS play is concerned .. Adelaide paying lip service to defense is a totally different story to them actually playing some .. But I do think Cairns can contain them to a low number tonight .. and with the Taipans struggling a little at the shooting end (besides Cat!) I lean towards this game going under the total .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted December 1, 2006 Author Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Thanks for the input Mr Flamboyant, and i think your right. Taipans are a very defensive team and they have shown that this year conceding only 97 points on average overall, and 96 points on average at home. However, Adelaide have one of the worst defences and thats especially away from home. Will be very close to the line this game, that much im sure of! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Another Friday night treble Ads and won the last 2 weeks :) Taipans -8.5 Le Havre Win French Ligue 2 Adelaide Win Australian A League @ $9-06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godmato Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Well last year Cairns - Adelaide were closed games. The year before - the same. So i'll go with tradition here. Under 198.5 points and Adelaide +8.5. GL guys and top review again ads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Thanks for the input Mr Flamboyant, and i think your right. Taipans are a very defensive team and they have shown that this year conceding only 97 points on average overall, and 96 points on average at home. However, Adelaide have one of the worst defences and thats especially away from home. Will be very close to the line this game, that much im sure of! Exactly .. I capped this game at 198 in terms of the total, so it's a real toss-up .. and I'm not prepared to flip a coin on this one when there's plenty of others that pop up as obvious plays .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godmato Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) 58-52 at HT. As far as i know my under is lost :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) 109 - 96 and another computer winner Ads :clap:clap:clap Trouble is I took the taipans into Adelaide and the latter got belted. :sad Ads can i buy your computer??? :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godmato Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Well this is the last time i go against you and your computer on NBL!!! FT 109 - 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godmato Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) No way beejay! I double the money for ads's computer :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djalmha Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Great job !!! 109 - 96 !! I finally took Cairns -9.5 & over 198.5 !! Thx to Ads25 and his computer !! XDDDD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Cairns vs Adelaide Computer Generated Prediction: Taipans2727252610536ers2423242495 Taipans 109 36ers 96 Suggested Bets to Look Into: Cairns Over 10.5 at $2.10 :clap Cairns -8.5 at $1.90 :clap Martin Cattalini to Score 31 Points or more at $2.25 :spank Total Points Over 198.5 at $1.90 :clap At this rate you are going to be Knighted Ads and you are not even English :rollin I doubt you would ever want to be either :rollin Keep it up son you are now officially Legend status :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djalmha Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Cairns Over 10.5 at $2.10 --> what's this odd significate? over what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted December 1, 2006 Author Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Cairns Over 10.5 at $2.10 --> what's this odd significate? over what? Mate that means Cairns to win the match by over 10.5 points. So basically Cairns to win by 11 or more (they won by 13) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted December 1, 2006 Author Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Predicted ScoreReal ScoreCairns105Cairns109Adelaide95Adelaide96 Suggested Bets to Look Into: Cairns Over 10.5 at $2.10 :clap Cairns -8.5 at $1.90 :clap Martin Cattalini to Score 31 Points or more at $2.25 :$ Total Points Over 198.5 at $1.90 :clap Almost got the predicted score spot on and that takes the tally to 17 wins from 19 now at a 89% strike rate. Cant believe how well its all going now. Both margins get up plus the Total point margin also at 205 points. Only one which didnt get up was Martin Cattalini getting 31 points or more. But it turns out he played less than half the game and spent alot of time on the bench. Im not quite sure of the reason why yet, but i will look into it for you guys because that was a main bet of mine and its angered me a bit. Perhaps he was injured? OTherwise nearly anotehr flawless night. Four games on tommorow night so hopefulyl the good ride can continue! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamstar Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) just found this post and will be following with intrest keep up the good work:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godmato Posted December 1, 2006 Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Well ads now you're gonna post reviews for 2morrow games earlier 'cause i definettly wanna read them ! Top reviews! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted December 1, 2006 Author Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Well ads now you're gonna post reviews for 2morrow games earlier 'cause i definettly wanna read them ! Top reviews! Yeah i will look at getting them on tommorow at around midday Australian time, which will be around 8 hours before the four games start. For interest sakes, the games played tommorow night are as follows: HawksvsDragonsCrocodilesvs36ersRazorbacksvsTigersBulletsvsBreakers All games seem pretty straight forward apart from the Hawks vs Dragons match. If i can predict the winner thier, i think i am confident of picking 4 out of 4 tommorow barring any unexpected upsets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted December 2, 2006 Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Sorry Ads, forgot to mention yesterday that Cat was laid really low with a virus for last night's game .. he was even in a bit a doubt to play as of yesterday afternoon .. didn't see your prop bet on him so couldn't forewarn you .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted December 2, 2006 Author Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Wollongong vs Dragons Very tough game to call, but you have to favour the Hawks here at home. Wollongong are one of the better teams to watch play in the NBL, hey have a very attacking side when they get going and Cortez Groves & Glen Saville make up the most feared attacking duo in the league. Both are brilliant and I believe their form is the reason for their rise up the ladder. Matt Campbell, Adam Ballinger & Tony Rampton round out the starting 11, but they have great support with players like Kasey Green & Daniel Royce on the bench. This really is a strong Hawks side which I think should get the job done, but in a close encounter. Dragons were in form in recent times, especially under new coach Shane Heal, but they gave up a lead Thursday night to Perth in the dying seconds to drop what would have been valuable points. I expect the Dragons to field a similar sort of team which on paper is very talented, Heal & Franklin are the keys here for the Dragons and they will really need to fire, as will Rosell Ellis who is in top form. Also on the Hawks side is that they havnt played a match in the last 10 days so they should be fresh and raring to go. Wollongong are paying $1.33 for the win which I find ridiculous for two very evenly matched sides, so purely for value the Dragons might be worth a plunge if you fancy them, perhaps on the line. But really the Hawks should be too good and I favour them on the Under 10.5 margin at $2.70 which is good value. Another market I want to attack is the HT/FT market because if you take a look at the tables Hawks are very slow starters and have actually won only 5 of 13 first halfs, while Dragons are 9 from 15. So the Dragons/Hawks is paying $5.50. The Total Points line at 202.5 is too close to call, id slightly favour the overs but I wont touch this as the Dragons aren’t always high scorers. Computer Generated Prediction: Hawks 26252625102Dragons 2625232599 Suggested Bets to Look Into Wollongong Under 10.5 at $2.70 Dragons/Hawks HT/FT at $5.50 Dragons +6.5 Line at $1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted December 2, 2006 Author Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) West Sydney vs Melbourne Well this match has only one winner and that’s the Melbourne Tigers. They are the best team in the league but seem to be a bit sluggish at the moment with a couple of shaky wins. But if they are able to play badly yet win matches the way they have, then that’s the sign of a great team. There are so many uneven matchups in this match favouring Melbourne it isnt funny. The Razorbacks will have to find a way to match the likes of the brilliant Chris Anstey, Rashad Tucker, Daryl Mac, Dave Thomas, and the list will go on and on. Melbourne have the best bench in the league too so there is plenty of back up. The Razorbacks do have some good players themselves including Justin Bailey, James Harvey, Liam Rush & Ya Ya Dia, but they will be taken out of the game by the brilliance of Melbournes top players. Looking at the value and there is none in Melbourne at $1.14 so will have to look elsewhere. Over 10.5 stands out $2.00, but the lines of -9.5 and -11.5 are paying $1.90 and $2.10 respectively which is worth taking a second look at. Really there is nothing else that stands out in a match where the favourite is this short, and considering there will be another couple of games the same as this tonight, perhaps some kind of multi bet is worth taking. You will get odds of around $4 to $7 depending on what you take. Computer Generated Predictions: Razorbacks 2524242598Tigers 28272727109 Suggested Bets to Look Into: Melbourne Over 10.5 at $2.00 Melbourne Lines of -9.5 and -11.5 at $1.90 and $2.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted December 2, 2006 Author Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Brisbane vs New Zealand The second of what I predict will be uneven matches. Brisbane along with Melbourne are by far the best sides in the league. Brisbane at home are brilliant and are near impossible to stop when they get on a roll, and the Breakers will leave Brisbane on the receiving end of a big loss. However the interesting thing is that New Zealand have already beat Brisbane this year but that was at home in a different country 4 hours away, now New Zealand must make the long trip to the top of Australia to face the form team of the league. To show you how well Brisbane are going, they are ranked top of the league, ranked top of the half time ladder, and are the best 2nd and 3rd quarter teams while being the best away side in the land. At home they have won 6 of 7 and are the only team to beat Melbourne at the ‘Cage’ in a year and a half. They are lead by the brilliant Sam McKinnon and have great support with CJ Bruton, Steve Black, Mark Bradtke, Dusty Rychart, Ebi Ere & Dilon Boucher just to name a few, and that’s a high quality list which I believe is just about the best in the NBL. New Zealand have a couple of handy players themselves, Carlos Powell is on fire and scoring points for fun, Ben Pepper is fantastic, while Paul Henare is capable of hurting any team on his day. But the Breakers just don’t have the depth to take on Brisbane up here tonight and Brisbane will win comfortably. As with the Melbourne game, Brisbane are $1.08 which is pointless backing. Over 10.5 is $1.71 which also is short, so looking at the lines of -12.5 and -14.5 at $1.86 and $2.05 which are a bit better, but they are high margins and it will be interesting to see if the Bullets can make them. However 9 of Brisbane’s 13 wins have been over 10.5 points so that fills me with some confidence. But really theres nothing else here that thrills me. So look at a couple of multibets Computer Generated Prediction: Bullets 25272926107Breakers 2623212595 Suggested Bets to Look Into: Brisbane to Win Over 10.5 at $1.71 Brisbane at Lines of -12.5 and 14.5 at $1.86 and $2.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted December 2, 2006 Author Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Townsville vs Adelaide The third of tonights match that will be uneven. Adelaide must back up 24 hours after taking on Cairns in a game they lost by 12 points, but taking on Townsville will be a much tougher task. Townsville have won 6 games out of 7 at home and are traditionally a brilliant home team, on the road is a different story but they are just tough to beat at home. Adelaide this season have become a joke, they are 2 wins from 8 on the road and are really struggling. Captain Brett Maher is getting on in age a bit and doesn’t seem himself anymore, missing Darren Ng for his medical exams is also a big loss aswell and playing for the second time in 2 days is really going to test them. They don’t have a lot of support coming off the bench and are struggling to hit points. Townsville have assembled a very good squad and have what I’ll call the ‘Fabulous 4’ in Larry Abney, John Rillie, Brad Newly & EJ Rowland. This is a formidable line up which could see the Crocs make top 4 material. EJ Rowlands transfer from Sydney to Townsville is a fantastic move and he will be a great player for them, he just didn’t fit in with Sydney, but in his 2 games to date for the Crocodiles he has been absolutely fantastic. As for value, there is none on Townsville at $1.22 so we head to the Over 10.5 market too see odds of $2.10 on offer which is ok. Again its hardly worth looking into markets, so look at taking some multibets if need be. Larry Abney is scoring at a rate of 21 points a game so I might set aside some small stakes for him to be top scorer at $4.10 Computer Generated Prediction: Crocodiles 2727282811036ers 25252524100 Suggested Bets to Look Into: Townsville Over 10.5 at $2.10 Larry Abney Top Scorer at $4.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted December 2, 2006 Author Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Well theres the 4 games tonight previewed. Dont have a best bet as such, but the Hawks to Win Under 10.5 at $2.70 certainly is good value. As for some multibets, the following look ok: Townsville O10.5 / Brisbane Over 10.5 - at $3.60 Townsville O10.5 / Melbourne OVer 10.5 - at $4.10 Melbourne O10.5 / Brisbane Over 10.5 - at $3.42 or the combo of Townsville O10.5 / Brisbane O10.5 / Melbourne O10.5 at $7.01 So basically a multibox. But im quite confident of getting all 3 up Over 10.5, but upsets can happen and 2 of the games this week came right down to the final 3 seconds before getting a winner. But when 3 of the 4 favourites are paying $1.22, $1.14 and $1.08, there isnt much value out there, and this is a great chance to clean up tonight in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Nader Posted December 2, 2006 Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Phenomenal results from the old computer of late ads, all the best for tonights picks. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted December 2, 2006 Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Thanx for the great work providing the tips again Ads. I'm having a crack at the multiples tonight. -6.5 WOLLONGONG HAWKS $1.86 -8.5 TOWNSVILLE CROCODILES $1.90 -9.5 MELBOURNE TIGERS $1.90 Treble @ $6.71 Win QUEENSLAND ROAR (A League) @ $2.45 -6.5 WOLLONGONG HAWKS @ $1.86 -8.5 TOWNSVILLE CROCODILES @ $1.90 -9.5 MELBOURNE TIGERS @ $1.90 Quadrella @ $16-45 Wish me luck and good luck to all :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godmato Posted December 2, 2006 Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Excelent work ads! :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted December 2, 2006 Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Similar to you BJV except have the QLD under for the 4 teamer.:hope Great work ads :clap GL all :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted December 2, 2006 Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: NBL Basketball - Round 11 (Nov. 27th to Dec. 3rd) Similar to you BJV except have the QLD under for the 4 teamer.:hope Great work ads :clap GL all :ok Good luck fellow Crow :ok 2-0 Queensland would be a fitting result... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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