Longshot-Favourite Bias - Rugby

[mcgin]

Okay this is going to be a paper trial for the time being. Basically along the same lines of what Datapunter is doing in his Soccer hot favourites system, but applied to Rugby Union. Its a paper trial cos I've no idea whether the bias exists in the rugby market cos I haven't been able to lay my hands on past odds information for Rugby so if anyone has it please do share! It should in theory produce a better strike rate then the soccer selections, as the chances of a draw are much slimmer in Rugby and that tends to be what upsets the apple cart for the soccer selections. Last week would have produced 1 (winning) selection Wasps @ 2/7 where most bookies had em at 2/9. Technically its after eventing :spank, but I'm including it in the selections as I chose it before I decided to start posting the picks on here and this is really more for my records then for anyone elses :) That said, all future bets will be proofed here before the event. I'll be keeping track of the bets in the spreadsheet below (tell me what sort of access you guys have to this, I'm hoping its read only :) ): http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pC1ufGPuFg_6m9NfIhGMiRw

[Norfolk Enchance]

Re: Longshot-Favourite Bias - Rugby Union Yeah, its read only. Good luck with this mcgin. Have you set any limits for the average price? and what sort of % above the average price will you be looking to back at? Obviously 2/7 is significantly higher than 2/9, but (hope you don't mind me talking decimals ;) ) what if the average was 1.222 and the top price, say, 1.25?