brewers7 Posted November 16, 2006 Author Share Posted November 16, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... I would avoid getting involved in houston v chicago' date=' both of these sides have played some very nice basketball this season and then again some very ugly one, this one is one to watch rather than bet on.[/quote'] You are correct, sir...No need to bet this one, just enjoy the game...No signicant angles and CHI is unpredictable...Good call... ======================================================================== Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes: Sides: 1) GS, 2) Chi Totals: 1) Chi un, 2) GS ov ======================================================================== Chicago at Houston: No strong opinions here except to say, when in doubt, I always take the points...Both teams coming off tough losses and are in bounce-back mode...The Bulls have been super-flaky to this point this season, which will happen when a team relies solely on outside shooting to win games on offense, so I am picking my spots carefully with this team...Both teams are defensive-minded, so the Under is the natural play, except this is a National TV game on TNT, where it just seems like games find ways to get Over the total... Sacramento at Golden State: The h2h numbers here point to the Under as 8 of the last 10 h2h have gone Under and both teams have more Unders this season than Overs...But GS is a team that can go Over on any given night...SAC likes to slow the pace generally speaking, but a no-play for me again as NAtional TV games seem to go Over more often than not (not counting playoffs)...GS is 3-0 SU & ATS vs. SAC when Baron Davis is in the lineup and 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS when Davis is out...GS is already 7-4 their last 11 SU against SAC and 9-2-1 ATS against them their last 12...SAC was a good team last season in the back-end of bk-2-bk games, but started 0-3 ATS in this situational spot on the Road in 2005-06...SAC is 0-1 ATS already this season, meanwhile GS is 1-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...GS was 6-4 ATS in this situational spot last year at Home, but I expect that to improve this season under Nellie...Their loss was against the Lakers, who were just dialed in those first 2 games of the season and GS was flat in their opener...GS has won 4 of 5 and covered 5 straight and Nellie has them playing well...It doesn't matter if Murphy plays or not...Artest had a sore back last night and it was sore enough in fact that he did not start against Memphis, but came off the bench and played 39 minutes...Will his back be 100% tonight?...Mike Bibby also played 42 minutes last night... ======================================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midnightblue Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... Chicago at Houston: No strong opinions here except to say' date= when in doubt, I always take the points...Both teams coming off tough losses and are in bounce-back mode...The Bulls have been super-flaky to this point this season, which will happen when a team relies solely on outside shooting to win games on offense, so I am picking my spots carefully with this team...Both teams are defensive-minded, so the Under is the natural play, except this is a National TV game on TNT, where it just seems like games find ways to get Over the total... Brewers I would like to commend you for your great results thus far, and your thorough analysis, however don't hedge on your analysis, because this confuses us and dilutes your results. Above you said under is natural play, but these games find ways to get overs. I think many would prefer if you just gave us supporting evidence for your selection, as you have effectively eliminated the validity of your selection by saying it will probably go overs. Its just a thought, and I hope you continue with your superb results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 17, 2006 Author Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... Brewers I would like to commend you for your great results thus far, and your thorough analysis, however don't hedge on your analysis, because this confuses us and dilutes your results. Above you said under is natural play, but these games find ways to get overs. I think many would prefer if you just gave us supporting evidence for your selection, as you have effectively eliminated the validity of your selection by saying it will probably go overs. Its just a thought, and I hope you continue with your superb results. I concur and the reason I hedged like that is because there is NO WAY I will bet this total...Too much conflicting info...Makes it a no-play... I'll try and remember, but my style is different, as I tend to point out both sides when I am not playing a game and see conflicting information... GL sir... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted November 17, 2006 Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... I concur and the reason I hedged like that is because there is NO WAY I will bet this total...Too much conflicting info...Makes it a no-play... I'll try and remember, but my style is different, as I tend to point out both sides when I am not playing a game and see conflicting information... GL sir... As long as the information is there on the bets you do place that's all I really look for:D Between this and the NHL last night was a good night so well done and once again thank you:clap I'm still curious to know what your pk bet was though on Philadelphia 76ers?? Did it win? I placed on 1Q over but couldn't get the line you did so settled for 52.5. Last time I do that thinking that a point either way surely won't make that much difference! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 17, 2006 Author Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... As long as the information is there on the bets you do place that's all I really look for:D Between this and the NHL last night was a good night so well done and once again thank you:clap I'm still curious to know what your pk bet was though on Philadelphia 76ers?? Did it win? I placed on 1Q over but couldn't get the line you did so settled for 52.5. Last time I do that thinking that a point either way surely won't make that much difference! Sorry to hear that about the 1Q bet...Pinny and 5dimes had 51.5... That was a moneyline bet with Philly... Another words, with zero points (or Pk, short for Pick) the 76ers were +158 for that game, so since I thought the 76ers would win the game, I took the 76ers +4 for 100$ and the 76ers moneyline at +158, betting 50$ to win 79$... If you have any questions at all when I post feel free to ask right away... GL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted November 17, 2006 Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... Sorry to hear that about the 1Q bet...Pinny and 5dimes had 51.5... That was a moneyline bet with Philly... Another words, with zero points (or Pk, short for Pick) the 76ers were +158 for that game, so since I thought the 76ers would win the game, I took the 76ers +4 for 100$ and the 76ers moneyline at +158, betting 50$ to win 79$... If you have any questions at all when I post feel free to ask right away... GL... Cheers, you are most helpful as always. I'll remember that PK next time as with that I'd have still been up at the end of a bit of a rollercoaster night! Nevermind, last night went well, so let's all hope tonight can match it or at least do similar:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 17, 2006 Author Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... Cheers, you are most helpful as always. I'll remember that PK next time as with that I'd have still been up at the end of a bit of a rollercoaster night! Nevermind, last night went well, so let's all hope tonight can match it or at least do similar:hope Yes...I don't like these game too much tonight, but will look for one solid play... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ======================================================================= Early looks at Friday's games, although not a lot of significant trends jumping out here as I don't like this board much...Should be a lot of trends kicking in for Saturday's big board: New Jersey at Indiana: Have no choice but to look at Indy here as they shot 38% from the field last game while getting buried at Boston and NJ shot 55% while beating Milwaukee...Indy also was eliminated by the Nets in the playoffs last year and this is the first meeting since then...Indy had covered 4 straight h2h vs. NJ in the regular season...Nothing significant standing out on the total except both teams are playing more Unders than Overs in games that are NOT back-ends of bk-2-bk nights... New York at Miami: No line listed due to SHAQ being questionable...This had been an Under series in the past, but some Overs are sneaking in, including 2 out of 3 Overs last season...Miami has won and covered 4 straight h2h...Knicks won't go Under forever, so this could be the game where there 3-game undeer steak ends as Miami may decide to run with them... Portland at Boston: I don't see any valid reason why PORT is getting 7.5 points here...The Celtics have covered 3 straight in this h2h series...I suppose since the Blazers have lost 4 straight on the Road, not covering any of them is the reason, but PORT was within 4 points of covering in ALL 4 of those games...They are a great teaser team right now as they are just missing getting under these numbers...Possible let-down spot here for the Celts here after the dominating win over Indy last time out...PORT is a chart-play to the Over because after 5 straight Unders, they have gone Over 3 straight... Minnesota at Cleveland: The Cavs have quietly put together the best record in the East at this early stage of the season...Minny is 9th and Cleve is 11th in FG% allowed...Minny has covered 6 of the last 8 in this h2h series...No strong opinion here, but when in doubt, I take the points...These teams have been playing Unders this season as CLE is Under 6 of their 8 games in regulation...Minny has 2 straight Overs after being Under 4 of 5... Washington at Detroit: What is wrong with the Pistons?...DET is 19th in FG% allowed...The Pistons had owned WASH until last season, when the Wiz swept them in the regular season, winning all 3 games (although the final one was a game where Detroit sat most of their starters on the last day of the season)...WASH has had back-to-back games where they have shot terrible, 35% vs. NJ and 31.5% vs. NY, so how long will this go on?...DET has also lost 2 straight, but shooting poorly hasn't been the issue...I would expect DET to rise up here, but wouldn't bet on it...If you don't count that final regular season game last season between these two where many DET starters didn't even play, this series has had 7 straight Overs and a push... Dallas at Memphis: Dallas has won and covered 12 of their last 13 vs. Memphis, including last year's first-round sweep over the Grizzlies...However, this is the first of a Home-and-Home, so I could wait until this game tonight is in the books and go the other way tomorrow...Dallas is still a bit of a chart-play after a NC4 (all losses), they have covered 3 straight (all wins)...I don't see Dallas slowing down and see them covering tonight and then not covering tomorrow at Home when they are favored by 9 or 10...For tonight, Dallas has 3 straight Overs and MEMP, after 6 straight Unders in regulation, had their first Over (in a big way) at SAC, so this may be a strong chart-play to the Over for them... Chicago at San Antonio: The Bulls have covered 5 straight games at SA and won there last season...However, I kind of pity CHI here facing SA off a big upset loss to Charlotte last time out at Home...Ben Wallace did hurt his bicep last night and I am not 100% certain he'll play after reading the Chicago newspapers online...For me, this is a Spurs or no-play situation...Major bounce-back spot here...CHI has gone Over 4 of 5, and the Spurs have gone Under 4 straight in regulation...No opinion on that total although these 2 teams have gone Over 3 straight h2h... Utah at Seattle: Seattle has won 3 straight in this h2h series...Utah is off to an awesome start, sporting the league's best record...So is this trap-city here?...Seems to be, but this is the second game with AK47 out for Utah...Does this matter?...Not according to 82games.com: http://www.82games.com/0607/0607UTA.HTM These numbers can be deceiving sometimes, but whenever a team has an injured players this website is good to find out whether a tam really misses that player or not...Just click on all of the teams and check it out...Big surprise how important Wade is to Miami, huh?...Anyway, this game has trap written all over it...Is Utah peeking ahead to PHOE tomorrow night at Home?...Utah 3 straight Overs...No opinion on this total right now... Philadelphia at Phoenix: The Suns have won and covered 4 straight in this h2h series fairly easily...The Suns have 5 days rest to prepare for this one...After a 2-5 start, I would imagine PHOE will be dying to get back on the court and take out their frustrations on someone...Sixers off a nice win, but they used defense to notch that "W"...Both of Philly's last 2 trips to PHOE stayed Under because the Suns were killing them, a 20-point win and a 29-point win...Pointspread seems a bit low, so I am going to want to watch the line-move here...My gut says PHOE blows them out, which may keep it Under, although it's hard for me to EVER bet a PHOE game under... Toronto at LA Lakers: Toronto seems to be a slow-starting team under Coach Sam Mitchell as the Raptors were 0-8 ATS last season and are 1-6 this season ATS, thus far, with a current NC5 going...Lake-show with 4 days rest to prepare for this one, but the Lakers have a tendency to play to the level of their competition...Kobe went off on this Raptors' team for 81 points last year at Staples...LAL has covered 4 straight at Staples vs. TOR...Again, for me, when in doubt, take the points, but man the Raptors aren't playing wel right now...I think this total can fly Over 207 as TOR shot 40% their last outing vs. GS and still fell a bucket or 2 away from going Over...Lakers 4 straight Unders after 4 Overs to start the season and the Raptors had an Under last time out after 4 straight Overs... ======================================================================= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted November 17, 2006 Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... Mate, this is great...not so much the results (which, don't get me wrong, are VERY good! :ok ) but love the talk about each game as much as anything... Really wish I was able to check out each day and do much the same thing... ...alas, I can't atm, but without hijacking any threads (ie. this one! :D )...being a pretty strong student/believer in history and how situations affect lines, I will (if no-one objects too strongly) post any strong/negative situational, er, situations for any games that strike me as relevant. (...All these 'trends' come from a database of ALL NBA games since 1995...) League: 16-0 SU (Av. win 11.2) home fav, off a 20+ ats loss as an away fav, if opp last won ats as any fav. [indi] League: 0-14 SU (3-11 ats...av. loss 8.8) away dog, 1+ days rest off a 10- ats win as home 5+ fav, if opp is off a 20+ ats loss. [NJ] Seems that Indi are being under-rated off a big loss, while NJ are being a bit over-valued off a good win, against a reasonably poor travelling (and defensive...2nd worst FG%A) Bucks. As a spread I'd want -3 or better, but historically, it looks a tough place for NJ to back up with a win. League: 3-14-1 ats (Av. loss 13.6) away 5+ dog, 0/1 days rest, off a 10- ats loss as away 10+ dog, if opp is off a 15+ ats win. [Port] Just tells me that Portlands form is "true", but the line is a little slow to react to Boston's recent form. I guess it cant hurt that Portland have lost 4 of their 5 games on the road (av. loss over 10 ppg), and the Celts won by 6 @ POrtland and 32 at home last 2 meetings. Again, from a historical pov I wouldn't like to take any more than -6 (meaning, I guess the line is still a couple of points higher than it "should" be), but good spot for Boston, and they (I think) will win SU...hopefully cover. League: 7-23 under (-8.2) home 5+ fav, 1 day off a SU/10- ats loss as home 5+ fav, if total 190+. [Det] 2-9 under (av. 7.6) if total 200 ** ...they are also 9-2 ats (av. win 12.5), and hold the opp (Wash) to 91.6 ppg) ** 0-2 under last season. Phil 91-76 NYK (-6, 204); Min 102-92 Seattle (-6, 200) Honestly, this one is pretty tough to take. Washington love to run, Det don't seem to be nearly as defensive this season (- Wallace?)... ...having said that, 3 meetings last season all went under this no. in reg...95-95 and 80-96 @ Det...the last 6 meetings @ Det have been under this no. The NO result looks scary (100-99), but there were only 15 TO's all game and Det shot 52.1%. A total over 200 looks high to me, and it's the one bet I think I will actually have. League: 1-15 SU (3-13 ats...av. loss 12.9) away dog, 1 day off a 10+ ats win as away 4- dog, if opp lost ats as a 5+ fav. [Phil] Again, historically anyway, a case of one team being over-rated off a big "unexpected" win, and the other losing (ats) as a decent fav. Match-ups?...Suns have won the last 4 meetings by av. 20.75 ppg!!...last 4 at home by 18.75... ...having said that, I couldn't possibly trust a team with the worst defence in history to cover a decent number! :D History says Phoenix will win, but there's every chance (currently!) it will be by less than 8. Good luck everyone. :cheers EDIT: We must have posted at the same time...don't want to seem like I "stole" some h2h results ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 17, 2006 Author Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... Feel free to post whatever you like in this thread TazaD... The more information that is in here, the better... GL yo ya... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 17, 2006 Author Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... ======================================================================== Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ======================================================================== Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection... ======================================================================== Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1 ======================================================================== Season To Date: 25-13, +$1230 Sides: 11-4, +$743, Totals: 7-7, -$38, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200 System Plays: 0-0 ======================================================================== Friday, November 17 Dallas/Memphis over 186 -- $165 to win $150 Like I said in my overview of today's games, this is a strong chart-play for me because Dallas has hit their offensive stride with 3 straight Overs and MEMP just had their first Over in regulation time, but it wasn't just an Over, it was a game that went Over by almost 50 points...Why did that happen?...Maybe this excerpt from the Memphis newspaper, the Commercial Appeal will give us some insight: INSIDE THE GRIZZLIES For the first time this season, the Griz can be encouraged by how well they played offensively. Committing to essentially a four-guard lineup created better ball movement, a faster pace and easier shots in their past two games. Said coach Mike Fratello: "What we've seen is that our most productive minutes have been when we go with speed and quickness. (The Sacramento game) was a step forward in the right direction." Eddie Jones is suffering from a sore Achilles so his status remains up in the air. It'll be a daily call as to whether he'll play. After sitting out Wednesday's loss at Sacramento, Jones will have had four days rest and could be available. The Griz spent Thursday traveling so there was no word yet concerning rookie Rudy Gay's availability. Gay, who started Wednesday in place of Jones, suffered a mild sprained ankle against the Kings. This would seem to tell me that the Griz are going to play small-ball and use their quickness to run up and down the floor...I also read another article in that paper where it seemed as though management was pressuring Coach Fratello to speed up the pace and go with the younger, quicker players...For me, it is generally a red-flag when a team suddenly goes Over a total by 50 points in regulation time after being a stone Under team all season...This is a strong chart-play for me, so there is no other way to go but Over... Good Luck...brewers7 ======================================================================== Friday's Picks for tracking purposes: Sides: 1) Port, 2) Phoe, 3) Sea, 4) SA, 5) Was, 6) NY, 7) Tor, 8) Dal, 9) Ind, 10) Min Totals: 1) Dal ov, 2) Tor ov, 3) Was ov, 4) Port ov, 5) NY ov, 6) SA un, 7) Ind ov, 8) Sea ov, 9) Min ov, 10) Phoe un ======================================================================== Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above... ======================================================================== Recent Results: Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150) Last 3 days: 4-3 (+$1) Last 7 days: 8-6 (+$132) ======================================================================== Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls ======================================================================== Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional… ======================================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted November 17, 2006 Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... Do you think you will likely make any further bets tonight? Only reason I ask is that here it's approaching midnight and if you're done with picks for today then I may retire to bed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 18, 2006 Author Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... Do you think you will likely make any further bets tonight? Only reason I ask is that here it's approaching midnight and if you're done with picks for today then I may retire to bed. That's probably it for tonight...I'll look for 2H lines, but I kind of just wanted to play ONE tonight and that will be it... Although I will probably bet the Denver/Toronto Over soon for Saturday because the line is moving up out of control... GL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted November 18, 2006 Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... That's probably it for tonight...I'll look for 2H lines, but I kind of just wanted to play ONE tonight and that will be it... Although I will probably bet the Denver/Toronto Over soon for Saturday because the line is moving up out of control... GL... Nothing on the NHL either then I'm guessing?! What is the over amount you want to play on Denver/Toronto then? EDIT: Nevermind, dismiss that. No line showing for tomorrows games yet and I've just seen your NHL play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 18, 2006 Author Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... If I see a 2H play tonight, I'll play it, but had to grab this before it goes up any more... ======================================================================== Saturday, November 18 Toronto/Denver over 216 -- $164 to win $150 It opened at 213, but I was handicapping the NHL and figured it wouldn't move too much in an hour...Yeah, right...Up to 215 in no time flat and I actually bought up a point to get 216 at lower juice...Toronto hasn't hit 216 yet and have a game pending yet tonight against the Lakers, but the Raptors are shooting around 40% in a lot of these games and still reaching totals of 209, 210 & 213...I had this game circled 3 days ago...No way the total should be less than 220...Denver is about as wide-open as it gets, save Phoenix, and Toronto is run-and-gun, with a very fast pace to their games and a lot of shots going up...Previous trends are out the window here, in my estimation, as I simply see these teams running-and-gunning all game long and unless Denver gets up by 30 or we have bricks going up all night, this should hit 220... Good Luck...brewers7 ======================================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 18, 2006 Author Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... This is my 2nd play for Saturday...Big board, lots of trends in play, there may be more... ======================================================================== Saturday, November 18 Memphis/Dallas over 189 -- $110 to win $100 People are pounding the daylights out of this Over at Pinnacle as it is 188 with -135 juice there, so ran over to 5dimes and took the 189 at normal juice...This is the second-half of a Home-and-Home series and yes, I know all about these teams playing games in the 170s and 180s the past several seasons, but Memphis has apparantly changed their offensive philosophy and are playing small-ball and using their speed and quickness to produce some more offense...I generally don't like taking an Over on the back-end of a Home-and-Home after an extreme Over in the first game, but I don't think Vegas is moving the line enough to catch up with the new Memphis offensive style...But you need to bet it now before all value is lost, but heck, the way Memphis is playing now, 200 may not be a problem...This is obviously still a strong chart-play for me for the Over, and if you need more details on the new Memphis offensive style, then see my post for Friday's Over with these same two teams... Good Luck...brewers7 ======================================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted November 18, 2006 Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... As I mentioned last week, I think I'd prefer to take just the first half over in that game (both teams travelling with no rest)...but at this stage I think you might be right....by the time the 1H lines are released it may have moved those 2-3-4 extra crucial points. I've got a few bets in already... Washington -3 League: 2-11 ats (Av. loss 8.0) away 4- dog, no rest off a 10+ ats win as home 5+ fav, if total is 190+ [Cavs] League: 11-3 ats (Av. win 6.8) home 4- fav, no rest off a 10- ats loss as any away dog, if opp is off a 10+ ats win. [Wash] No games in those are common, so it's a 22-5 ats trend in favour of Washington. I like it anyway...Washington are a totally differnet team home/away. On the road they av. just 92.5 ppg and are 0-4, at home they are 3-1 and score 112.5! They struggled with a solid Detroit (mainly zone) defensive effort today, Arenas was 7-20, Jamison 3-12...I don't think they'll have the same problems at home tomorrow. Three points doesn't seem much to overcome. Charlotte @ Orlando under 195.5 Charlotte have the best D in the NBA (40.9% shooting!) and Orlando throw up the least shots per game...Plus they are the number 1 and 2 teams for TO's. Orlando have topped 100 at home in 4 gamse (Chic, Phil, Wash, Denver), but 3 of them are in the top 6 for shots/game, and the one that isn't (Philli) are the 7th best shooting %... ...plus 3 of those teams are in the bottom 10 for FGA%...Charlotte is best. On the road, the 'Cats have scored (in reg.) 83, 85, 100 and 83... ...I think this one has all the makings of a slow, sloppy game. Detroit PK!! Huh? There is actually a 13-3 trend that supports Detroit here, but I don't think I'll bother! Houston are a bit of a fraud, just because of their schedule so far, having played just TWO teams with winning records! (both losses btw) 3 wins on the road over Memphis, Mil and Mia who have a combined record of 7-16. I do realise that Detroit themselves are under .500, but they certainly looked solid today and I think they are about to string some wins together after a poor start (including Hamilton's elbow injury too). Houston have scored just 90, 86, 97 and 94 on the road (92.8), and Det have won the last 5 meetings by an av, of 11.6; the last 5 @ home by 14.0 ppg. Strange line, just asking one of the best teams in the NBA just to win at home. Pretty sure they can and will. Philli @ Clipshow under 199.5 Nothing major here, just think I'll ride the LAC home D unders, given they hold teams to 90.6 ppg @ 42.1%. The only Clipper game to go over this total was v. Phoenix. Philli have gone over 200 twice on the road, but one was at Toronto where everyone will go that high, and a 105-103 win @ Orlando where they shot over 56%! (And Orlando shot 53.4% aswell)... ...we almost ceratinly won't see those kind of numbers tomorrow. All 5 of the last 5 meetings in LA have been under this no. @ 180.6. That's about it...oh, there is a 10-2 'over' trend in the Toronto game, so I certainly won't steer you away from that one. The total is a little high for me to play tbh, but all the best, and good luck with whatever you play. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 18, 2006 Author Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... I agree with ALL of those TazaD...GL to ya sir...:ok ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Made 2 bets already for SAT... ======================================================================= Early looks at Saturday's games (remember these are looks and info I am passing along and is by no means a "play" on anything yet): Cleveland at Washington: Cleveland will undoubtedly be the square play of the day (61% of the early bets already on CLE), because how could the team with the best record in the league be getting points against Washington, who has been playing terrible...Larry Hughes will be missing his second game with a sprained ankle...His teammates rose up to win and cover last night...WASH will be the team with the motivation here as they were eliminated by the Cavs in the playoffs last year and beaten on National television the 2nd night of this season at CLE...It is the Wiz or no-play for me...WAS has 3 straight Unders after 4 straight Overs...This Vegas total looks high to me for this series... Charlotte at Orlando: These teams hav gone Over 6 of 8 in this h2h series, but that Vegas total just looks too high to me...CHAR has only gone Over twice in 8 games this season in regulation and one was against Denver, so does that even count?...CHAR is 1st in FG% allowed and ORL is 3rd...If you don't count back-end of bk-2-bk games, ORL hasn't gone Over since the first 2 games of the season...And 8.5 also looks like too many points despite CHAR off a huge upset win at SA...This h2h series is tied at 4-4... Miami at Atlanta: Not sure why we are waiting for a line here when we know Shaq is out for 4 to 6 weeks...Miami will be a Dog here, a rare spot for them as they have dominated this h2h series recently...The Heat have won 13 of the last 15 straight up, covering 11...Atlanta did win the last meeting, but this was a meaningless game on the second-to-last day of the season last year and Miami sat Wade, SHAQ, Mourning & Peyton in that contest...So can we even count that one?...13 wins in the last 14 h2h for Miami before that meaningless game...But how flat are the Champs right now?...Miami was 6-10 ATS last season on the back-end of bk-2-bks...This has been an Over series recently h2h with 8 of the last 10 going Over... Portland at New Jersey: The Blazers are finally falling back to reality on this disastrous Road trip...This will be their 4th game in 5 nights, and for people in the know, when we have a game like thisthe general rule of thumb is to take the Away Team every time...This situational spot is 5-2 ATS for the Away Team thus far this season...PORT had one 4-of-5 game last year on the Road at MILW and covered that spot...NJ heads West after this game...I cannot go against the trend here, but won't bet PORT because I suddenly do not trust them after they have lost and not covered 4 straight...This series has gone Under 5 straight and 8 of 10, but PORT is still a chart-play for me because after 5 straight Unders, they now have 4 straight Overs and NJ had their 232 total on their only back-ender this season... Houston at Detroit: This h2h series had gone Under 5 straight until an Over on 1/22/06 last season at Detroit...Houston playing a surprising number of Overs to this point of the season...Pistons not getting any respect here as they are a Pick in their own building...But it is understandable as HOU looks solid and the Pistons no longer have that dominating presence, so even though DET has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series, the Rockets covered here last season losing by 2 as 11.5 Dogs...I have no opinion either way... Boston at New York: Coach Isiah Thomas said in the preseason that until the Knicks are mathematically eliminated, their goal is to win the championship this year...That may be optimism on creatine, but the Knicks have won 2 straight and are 4-6 with a win-able game at MSG tonight...However, Boston has won 7-of-9 in this h2h series...3 of the last 4 and 5 of 7 have gone Under h2h...NY suddenly has 4 straight Unders after 4 straight Overs, but I don't foresee NY ever having an extended Under streak thiss eason...BOS has 2 straight Overs and this game just smells like an Over to me...Both teams shot over 50% last night, so can they keep that up tonight?... New Orleans at Minnesota: No line yet and I am not sure why here...Looked around for an injury (maybe Blount is questionable after Friday night's game?)...The hornets have covered 7 of 8 h2h in this series...They are 1-0 ATS so far when they have rest and their opponent does not, but that was a Home game (vs. HOU)...Minny is 1-1 on the back-end of bk-2-bks, covering the 4-of-5 spot and both were on the Road while this one is at Home...6 of the last 8 have gone Over in this h2h series...NO 8th and Minny 9th in FG% allowed thus far, though, and Minny Under in BOTH of their back-enders this season, so the Under is a natural look... Indiana at Milwaukee: The Home Team has won 8 of the last 10 and the Under has gone 7 of 10 in this h2h series...This Vegas total looks low at first blush to me, but this is a chart-play for the MILW Under as they have 2 straight Unders after 5 straight Overs...Indy is 1-2 SU and ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks on the Road so far this season... Memphis at Dallas: Dallas has won and covered 13 of their last 14 vs. Memphis, including last year's first-round sweep over the Grizzlies...However, this is the back-end of a Home-and-Home, so since Dallas covered the front-end at Memphis, my kneejerk handicapping reaction to the back-end is to take Memphis and the points as they don't even need to win to cover the spread here...However, Dallas is certainly the chart-play, now on a C4 after a NC4 to the start the season and it's 4 wins after 4 losses, too...For tonight, Dallas has 4 straight Overs and MEMP, after 6 straight Unders in regulation, has 2 straight BIG-TIME Overs, so this is a strong chart-play to the Over for them...And I id point out already the new offensive scheme now implemented by the Grizz... Toronto at Denver: I marked this game on my calendar 3 days ago...Over-Over-Over...Denver has installed a new Phoenix-like offense for this season, and although they don't have the right personnel in place to run this system, the Nuggets have still gone Over 5 of 7 games this season (pushing their last total at ORL)...These teams basically run and gun and look to get as many shots off in as short an amount of time as possible...DEN is 25th and TOR is 27th in FG% allowed, so defense will be an after-thought here and unless Denver kills this team by 25 or 30, this game should hit 225 or 230 or above unless they are clanking bricks all night...Toronto might be a charrt-play here on the Side as they covered last night (barely) after Not covering 5 straight... Phoenix at Utah: No line as Steve Nash is questionable with back spasms...Everything hinges on Nash playing here...PHOE is an Under team without him, and I don't know if they Cover here 2 nights in a row without him...This is a quick-revenge spot for PHOE who lost to Utah at Home on 11/3...Utah is already 2-0 SU & ATS this season when they AND their opponent are on the back-end of bk-2-bks, while PHOE is 0-1 SU & ATS in the same spot...Coach Dunleavy of the Clippers said the Jazz are the best team in the Western Conference after the Clips got throttled by Utah on 11/14...But I would have to take PHOE whether Nash plays or not and the total should go Over if Nash plays and Under if he doesn't...Utah is Over 4 straight... Philadelphia at LA Clippers: The Clips got mangled by the Jazz at Utah and have had 3 days rest to lick their wounds from that 22-point loss...We have a chart-play against the Clips because they didn't cover last time out after 4 straight Covers...Clips are 0-2 on the Road, but 5-0 at Home (4-1 ATS)...Philly has covered 4 of the last 5 times at LAC...Clips Under 4 of their 5 Home games with PHOE being the obly Over, so I lean to the Under here... Seattle at Golden State: At first blush, how does this game NOT go Over?...GS shot 57.7% two nights ago and SEA shot 53.6% last night, so my kneejerk handicapping reaction would be to think Under here with these teams coming off solid shooting nights...GS is 12th in FG% allowed (a bit surprising), while SEA is 28th (no surprise)...GS has gone Under 4 straight games at Home vs. SEA, with 202 being the highest scoring game...GS has covered 6 straight in this h2h series...GS has also covered 6 straight overall THIS season coming into this contest...GS 2-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...Seattle is 2-0 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks so far this season... ======================================================================= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted November 18, 2006 Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... : Not sure why we are waiting for a line here when we know Shaq is out for 4 to 6 weeks Claxton, S GProb Sat - Knee - 11/17/06notesIs sidelined with sore knees. 1-22-0-1Childress, J GQues Sat - Foot - 11/17/06notesHas a sore foot. 0-00-0 Could we really be waiting on a line for Josh Childress???!!! ...The NO game is OTB because of West being (likely) out tho. At least that one makes a little bit of sense! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 18, 2006 Author Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... Ok, cannot help myself here...I have to add another $150 bet on this total...I was seriously considering this as a maximum play bet ($1000), but it is too early in the season to be betting that big on a total...I just don't see any way this game doesn't hit 220, but maybe I am wrong here... ======================================================================== (Additional bet on this total): Saturday, November 18 Toronto/Denver over 215 -- $150 to win $153 Total coming down slightly...That is fine with me...Toronto hasn't hit 215 yet and just missed going Over again last night, which is perfect for me, because tonight should be the explosion game against a Denver team who doesn't play defense...TOR won't be shooting 40% from the floor forever, and I expect close to 180 shots going up tonight...Raptors still reaching totals of 207, 209, 210 & 213...I had this game circled 3 days ago...Denver is about as wide-open as it gets, save Phoenix, and Toronto is run-and-gun, with a very fast pace to their games and a lot of shots going up...Previous trends are out the window here, in my estimation, as I simply see these teams running-and-gunning all game long and unless Denver gets up by 30 or we have bricks going up all night, this should hit 220... Good Luck...brewers7 ======================================================================== Saturday's Picks for tracking purposes: Sides: 1) Was, 2) Tor, 3) Char, 4) Phoe, 5) Port, 6) Mia, 7) Memp, 8) NO, 9) Bos, 10) GS, 11) Phi, 12) Ind, 13) Det Totals: 1) Tor ov, 2) Memp ov, 3) Char un, 4) Bos ov, 5) Phi un, 6) Port ov, 7) Mia un, 8) NO un, 9) GS ov, 10) Det un, 11) Was un, 12) Ind un, 13) Phoe un Note on the PHOE total: if Nash doesn't play, the Under is a MUCH stronger play... ======================================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 19, 2006 Author Share Posted November 19, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... ======================================================================== 2nd half bet: Saturday, November 18 New Jersey Nets, 2H, -9.5 -- $107 to win $100 NJ shooting about 25% and PORT shooting over 50% and NJ down 17 and can still cover this 2H spread even if they lose by 7 for the game...NJ ccannot play any worse here...Any kind of effort at all will get this under a 7-point deficit for the game...FG percentages should even out here... Good Luck...brewers7 ======================================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 19, 2006 Author Share Posted November 19, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... ======================================================================== Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ======================================================================== Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection... ======================================================================== Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1 ======================================================================== Season To Date: 27-15, +$1466 Sides: 11-4, +$743, Totals: 9-8, +$305, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 2-0, +$200 ======================================================================== Sunday, November 19 San Antonio Spurs -2.5 -- $105 to win $100 Feels like a square play here, but I feel the injury of Brad Miller is going to catch up with this Kings' team...Sure, they are unbeaten at Home, but the Spurs are unbeaten on the Road...Sure, the Spurs eliminated the Kings from the playoffs last season so the Kings should be up for this one, looking for some revenge...SA won by 3 in their only regular season trip to ARCO last season, and I will take a shot with a minimum play on the better team...I will pass on the Under here although SA has played 5 straight Unders in regulation and although SAC has 3 straight Overs, they were against TOR, GS and a MEMP team trying out a new offense...This total is a bit high for these 2 teams... Good Luck...brewers7 ======================================================================== Sunday's Picks for tracking purposes: Sides: 1) SA, 2) Chi Totals: 1) SA un, 2) Chi un Chicago at LA Lakers: Ben Gordon is probable...The Bulls have lost 3 straight and I just don't see them losing 4 in a row here...The Bulls won here last year...These two teams have gone Under 5 straight h2h...The Lakers have 5 straight Unders after starting the year with 4 straight Overs...Lean to the Under here... ======================================================================== Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above... ======================================================================== Recent Results: Yesterday: 1-2 (+$86) Last 3 days: 3-2 (+$386) Last 7 days: 8-4 (+$487) ======================================================================== Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls ======================================================================== Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional… ======================================================================== Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtfo Posted November 20, 2006 Share Posted November 20, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... Top stuff as always! :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bermin Posted November 20, 2006 Share Posted November 20, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... well done，I have tailed u for a week。good luck next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewers7 Posted November 20, 2006 Author Share Posted November 20, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... well done，I have tailed u for a week。good luck next week Thank you... The moderators here have put my Week 4 thread up top in the sticky section in case you didn't see it...I didn't even see it at first, but I guess you'll have to start looking up top for it for now (until I get cold, then they'll ship my thread to the garbage dump)... Best of luck to you, sir... :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bermin Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... certainly i had see the thread,good luck for u i will have some questions for u this days,may you answer me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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