NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)...

[brewers7]

################################################## ############## Early looks at Monday's games (Bets will come later): Orlando at Boston: This game is opening at a Pick and about 198 and the Home team in this head-to-head series has won 8 of the last 10 against the other and 7 of the last 9 have gone Over...Doc Rivers' days may be numbered in minutes if the Celts don't turn around this 1-5 start...Kind of a chart-play here for me...The Celtics didn't Cover any of their first 5 games (one push) and then an easy Cover at CLE on Saturday, a game which they led by 25 and lost by 1...Of course, ORL is also a chart-play for me as they had a NC5 end on Saturday also, with a thumping and a Cover at Minny, so that angle is a wash-out...The one trend that sticks out here on the Side is that Boston is 9-1 SU and ATS the last 10 and 14-2 SU and ATS the last 16 against Orlando AT Boston...Hard to argue against those numbers, especially with the motivational factor being on the Celtics' side after that tough loss and Orlando off a nice Road win at Minny...I am not seeing any angle on the total to sink my teeth into at all, so the gut has to take over and the gut says Under... Seattle at New Jersey: NJ did indeed rise up without Richard Jefferson to win and Cover in a dramatic OT win at Washington on Sunday...The numbers that draw my attention here are these: N KRSTIC C 45:33 10-18 2-2 2 8 10 0 2 0 0 22 V CARTER G 41:45 10-22 9-10 0 2 2 7 5 3 2 34 J KIDD G 44:18 5-13 4-7 0 11 11 18 2 4 3 15 In bold you see the minutes played by 3 key starters on Sunday...Surely a let-down spot here for NJ even though the Nets have been a team not prone to let-downs the last few years...Also, SEA has trouble winning in NJ...However, a second straight game without Jefferson will be tough...They rose up without him on Sunday (like Detroit rose up without Rip Hamilton against the Lakers on Friday -- and looked at what happened at GS the next night), but can they do so again?...Now NJ is at Home while DET was on the Road, but this is still just a flat-out let-down spot no matter how you look at it...I wish I was around to grab the opening line, but I'll settle for the 3.5 here...This is the final game of the Seattle road trip and their 5th game in 7 days, but fatigue won't be a factor here for them as they sat in their hotel rooms all day and watched the NFL while NJ played a tough OT game...SEA is playing well, too, beating Miami the whole game before losing late, losing to Orlando on a buzzer-beater prayer, and then responding to beat Charlotte and a red-hot Atlanta team...No opinion at all on the total but 4 of the last 5 between these two at NJ went Over... Cleveland at NY Knicks: Again, it's the Knicks, so I feel almost contractually obligated to pick the Over here...This is my top total, but a bet may not be forthcoming as the head-to-head series has produced 8 Unders in the last 9 meetings...But why is my gut screaming at me, saying, "LeBron will score 40 with 9 assists and 8 boards and this will be a shoot-out"?...Tough call...I may wait and see if the Knicks go Under in the 1H (NY had gone Under in each of their first 6 games in the 1H before going Over at SA last time out), and if that happens, perhaps place a bet on the 2H Over as they have gone Over 5 of their 7 games (1 was OT-aided), although Under their past two 2H's...The Cavs have lost 3 straight times at MSG, which logically makes the Knicks a play here as they look for their first Home win of the season...I just wonder if the Cavs' horrible start vs. Boston last time out will motivate them into a strong start out of the gate in this contest which makes me contemplate a 1Q bet on CLE, although that "bet" may never get out of the contemplation phase, although Cleveland is 2-0 SU and ATS on the Road this season in the 1Q... ################################################## ##############

[brewers7]

Re: NBA Week 3 thread (20-10, +$1079 on the year)... ################################################################ Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################################ Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection... ################################################################ Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1 ################################################################ Season To Date: 20-10, +$1079 Sides: 8-3, +$447, Totals: 7-5, +$286, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-0, +$300, ML: 0-1, -$50, Quarters: 1-0, +$100 System Plays: 0-0 ################################################################ Monday, November 13 Seattle SuperSonics +3.5 -- $162 to win $150 NJ did indeed rise up without Richard Jefferson to win and Cover in a dramatic OT win at Washington on Sunday...3 key NJ starters played extended minutes in the OT win at Washington...Surely a let-down spot here for NJ even though the Nets have been a team not prone to let-downs the last few years...Also, SEA has trouble winning in NJ...However, a second straight game without Jefferson will be tough...They rose up without him on Sunday (like Detroit rose up without Rip Hamilton against the Lakers on Friday -- and look at what happened at GS the next night)...Can NJ rise up again without Jefferson?...Now NJ is at Home while DET was on the Road, but this is still just a flat-out let-down spot no matter how you look at it...I wish I was around to grab the opening line, but I'll settle for the 3.5 here...This is the final game of the Seattle road trip and their 5th game in 7 days, but fatigue won't be a factor here for them as they sat in their hotel rooms all day and watched the NFL while NJ played a tough OT game...SEA is playing well, too, beating Miami the whole game before losing late, losing to Orlando on a buzzer-beater prayer, and then responding to beat Charlotte and a red-hot Atlanta team... Good Luck...brewers7 ################################################################# Monday's Picks for tracking purposes: 1) Sea, 2) Bos, 3) NY Totals: 1) NY ov, 2) Bos un, 3) NJ ov ################################################################# Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above... ################################################################# Recent Results: Yesterday: 1-0 (+$100) Last 3 days: 3-3 (-$19) Last 7 days: 9-4 (+$1081) ################################################################# Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls ################################################################# Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional… #################################################################