Nhl 11/04/06

[Willie]

Ok, have been having a bit of slump but I'm going to change my strategy a little bit and essentially get back to basics. Have had a bit of "bad luck" and been a little bit sloppy recently so it's time to get back on track again:) So I'm going even harder on value betting than picking "sure" winners because I have noticed that it doesn't payoff for me. IMO the odds for the favourites are too low and therefore the odds for longshots should be lucrative.. This doesn't mean that I'm going to stop backing favourites, I'll back them if they give value. So this new strategy should mean that I'm going to go plus in the long run instead of the short run.. have noticed that I have put on to much effort to get me plus in the short run (backing lowpriced winners etc.) and that has been hurting my bankroll.. So with the new strategy I'm aiming to get at least a 50% strike rate in the NHL, that should be enough to give me profit as I will focus on value bets and they often offer over evens in odds. So let's see how it goes :) Will come back with my thoughts for tonight shortly..

[Willie]

Re: Nhl 11/04/06 Ok, gonna try 4 matches today and hope I at least get 2 out of 4 :ok All bets placed on betfair. The odds are taken from this time, but I think they should rise a little bit so I'm gonna wait til later to place the bets. NJ@MTL, NJ to win ml 2.24. NJ won all 4 encounters last season so they have a good record against MTL. NSH@MIN, NSH to win 2.3. MIN are missing Gaborik but that hasn't stopped them this far... But this can be a tight game and so he could be missed, furthermore NSH are 6-2-0 away this season but of course MIN is 8-0-0 at home... So as said thight game, prefer the away odds. PIT@SJS, PIT to win 2.82. PIT has Malkin and Crosby who can by themselves win matches. SJ has been in good form and are a really strong team, bit PIT is 4-0-0 away this season so their tactics suits the away game.. The odds is worth punting. WSH@PHI, 2.3. PHI is a wreck, they really can't do anything right at the moment. Forsberg isn't the leader that PHI needs right now... PHI has a slow defense so if Ovechkin has a good day he will skate past the slow defense many times and hopefully score some goals.. Can't understand the odds for WSH. PHI is definately overvalued!! EDIT: All bets are on the moneyline.