How far can you go not knowing odds?

[guesswest]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? Respectfully, that's just wrong. There's lots of mathematical and conceptual errors there. Firstly, even in this exaggerated example, you in fact probably don't have pot odds to call. You're neglecting the fact that in a 6 way pot the average hand you'll need to win goes up in value also. In this example it's certainly no less than 2 pair, which you have only a 49-1 shot of flopping - and probably closer to trips, which is an 80-1 shot. There are other ways to improve enough, but I don't think they add up to a call. Since you have an interesting hand with lock potential in gapped suited connectors you may choose to call this on implied odds - but that's a different issue and would depend very much on your table. This hand is also artificial in so far as it's your BB - in any other position you're getting half those odds and have nothing close to pot odds to make those calls. And really, it just doesn't represent low/medium limit games anyways. You probably get legitimate implicit collusion at micro-stakes like 5c/10c, but even at low regular limits you don't see this kind of play much. I spent the first half of last year two-tabling $3/$6 and $5/$10 games and this isn't an accurate reflection of how these tables play. If that hand happened it'd be a freak hand where a couple guys got dealt AA and KK, or something like that. When I said that pot odds were less important in playing NL well, what I meant, and I suspect what slap meant - is that the margins are greater. In a limit game, you'll frequently be making calls/folds in situations where you have only a small amount of + or -EV. So being able to calculate precise odds and figure out which you have is important. In a NL game much more often you will be faced with a situation where you have quite a lot of + or - EV, so it's more likely that someone making calls on intuition or a vague sense of probability will correctly identify which they have without having to consciously calculate their odds. That's not to say pot odds aren't important in NL, just that you can get away with not knowing them in more situations.

[Masterplan]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? for working out odds on the fly, i'm in with the real nitty gritty of the maths fo it. i use some software to do it for me :) when i'm playing most sites (most except boss) i use either poker0spy(i prefer this one) or poker tracker. i find that in situations where there are multiple overlapping draw outs, its very useful to know what odds i need. also tracking my opponents play styles automatically is extremely useful :)

[ubermonkey1]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? luckily i am pretty good at maths on the fly :) but as slapdash and guesswest said memory(practice) is much more usefull and 95% of the time you can just run on that. its just the occasional hand that i might start to use pot odds and implied odds ,usually when i am in a real quandry what to do:unsure but most of the time i just rely on my read of the table in general and act on that. admittedly limit is a bit different as i tend to be thinking more mathmatical and playing the cards not the player(any kind of limit at all ,stud, omaha or holdem)whereas no limit i take a lot more notice of their play etc and act on that more. that said it never hurts to have a bit of a edge ,so its better to work out a way to remember odds (or work them out)for most of the common situations you will face:ok .

[robilaruk]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? yes I realise that is might not be statisically acurate however it is what happens - anyone who has played micro buy-in FL games will see this all the time - maybe we are on different sites - I started on vcpoker playing fixed and this happened all the time 6-8 players to the flop every hand, and people calling with middle/bottom pair despite the other 2 flop cards being broadway cards with people betting and raising the flop, because its 'only' another 10c to call and hit - and once thay have called the pot is so much bigger and so offers you attractive odds to call again - and that was my main point - with so many players in most hands the most times you are getting 10-1 or more to make the call, so people call and make the pot bigger etc etc etc and of course its an artificial hand - but is is something you see with suited coonectors (gap) - any 2 etc and is an example of low level thinking. Of course I am making assumptions here, else why do people call with a small pair to the river despite the betting? is it because they want to give you their money or because they believe they have the faint hope of hitting trips - and i have no doubt that they are not even considering pot odds - they are just calling hoping to hit - i.e. gambling I got so sick of playing this that I watched the $2/$4 for a while to see if this were different - they weren't much - only 4-5 players to the flop in most cases....... if play is so much different at higher stakes then great I might start playing again - will have a look at a few games and see what happens I see your point of the small +/- ev on fixed limit given that the pot is small compared to NL (i.e I can't shove and create a big pot) and I do think that FL requires a different skill set to NL and certainly a different mental approach to the game I just don't see how pot odds affect FL at all - I still say that in most cases you can argue that you are getting the correct odds to call for you gutshot etc (now whether that helps is another matter as it might make a bigger straight etc) - tho I am prepared to be convinced otherwise (prolly only by posting a few HH I would guess?) Damo

Respectfully, that's just wrong. There's lots of mathematical and conceptual errors there. Firstly, even in this exaggerated example, you in fact probably don't have pot odds to call. You're neglecting the fact that in a 6 way pot the average hand you'll need to win goes up in value also. In this example it's certainly no less than 2 pair, which you have only a 49-1 shot of flopping - and probably closer to trips, which is an 80-1 shot. There are other ways to improve enough, but I don't think they add up to a call. Since you have an interesting hand with lock potential in gapped suited connectors you may choose to call this on implied odds - but that's a different issue and would depend very much on your table. This hand is also artificial in so far as it's your BB - in any other position you're getting half those odds and have nothing close to pot odds to make those calls. And really, it just doesn't represent low/medium limit games anyways. You probably get legitimate implicit collusion at micro-stakes like 5c/10c, but even at low regular limits you don't see this kind of play much. I spent the first half of last year two-tabling $3/$6 and $5/$10 games and this isn't an accurate reflection of how these tables play. If that hand happened it'd be a freak hand where a couple guys got dealt AA and KK, or something like that. When I said that pot odds were less important in playing NL well, what I meant, and I suspect what slap meant - is that the margins are greater. In a limit game, you'll frequently be making calls/folds in situations where you have only a small amount of + or -EV. So being able to calculate precise odds and figure out which you have is important. In a NL game much more often you will be faced with a situation where you have quite a lot of + or - EV, so it's more likely that someone making calls on intuition or a vague sense of probability will correctly identify which they have without having to consciously calculate their odds. That's not to say pot odds aren't important in NL, just that you can get away with not knowing them in more situations.

[robilaruk]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? just had a look at sporting, and the %tage of players seeing the flop are generally around 60% and most cases alot more than that - I know this is not a good example and decent 'proof' that monkeys call with any 2, but in some cases its close to 80% of players seeing a flop - and I can't imagine that every hand is simply called down PF? are folks using pot odds to call with? dunno Damo

[slapdash]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? I just had a look at Full Tilt. They had 8 fixed limit tables with 9 players (stakes between $1/$2 and $3/$6), and the figures for average players per flop were all between 25% and 36%: so about 3 players per flop.

[slapdash]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds?

I just had a look at Full Tilt. They had 8 fixed limit tables with 9 players (stakes between $1/$2 and $3/$6), and the figures for average players per flop were all between 25% and 36%: so about 3 players per flop.

PokerStars have more fixed limit full tables, and the figures are similar for low (but not micro) limits, around 30% players per flop: a little lower at $5/$10, a little higher at $1/$2. This is for full (10 player) tables.

[robilaruk]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? this is very interesting - what a difference in sites so there is value to be had by looking around at picking value tables cheers Damo

PokerStars have more fixed limit full tables, and the figures are similar for low (but not micro) limits, around 30% players per flop: a little lower at $5/$10, a little higher at $1/$2. This is for full (10 player) tables.

[slapdash]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds?

this is very interesting - what a difference in sites

SpOdds seems to have had very little action at limit tables when I've looked. I don't know if that might have something to do with it? I'm not sure why it would, but maybe SpOdds players just don't know how to play limit? I've looked a few times this morning, and there have never been more than two or three full (or even almost full) 10-seat table at stakes of $1/$2 or above. The figure for players per flop has varied from 30% to 60%. At the moment, there are three tables with figures of 33%, 35%, 40%, which is a bit closer to the Full Tilt/PokerStars figures.

[philossify]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? In my experience SportingOdds has lots of turks and Eastern European players on the low value (.10/.20 and .25/.50) limit games and I find they come in with little bankroll (not that you need much) and stay to see the flop with (as far as I can tell) anything other than the worse hands (any two cards of the same suit, anything with a court card or above, any two offsuit connectors, and even stuff such as 6To hoping for 789 to fill the void). I suspect one of the reasons some of them do this (other than lack of knowledge and feeling lucky) is to get entrance to the 50up games, a half hour sessiion and the loss of (say) $3 can qualify you. So even in losing they get a little reward - a bit like those games on the funfair where everyone "wins" a prize - the prize, of course, costing peanuts compared to the original stake. Long may they continue - if I want to qualify for the 50up I just play two tables at the low value stakes for half an hour being much choosier about starting hands and qualify with a small profit generally.

[guesswest]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds?

I just don't see how pot odds affect FL at all - I still say that in most cases you can argue that you are getting the correct odds to call for you gutshot etc (now whether that helps is another matter as it might make a bigger straight etc)

This isn't true. You frequently aren't getting pot odds to call gutshots and the like in limit games, even in multi-way pots. But more importantly, when you are, they're generally in a hand you shouldn't have been playing in the first place. You're more likely to get odds the further down the hand it goes - most equity and most mistakes are made with pre-flop calls. It's generally incorrect to fold on the river. A bad player might have odds to call to see the river on the gutshot, but that's neglecting the fact that he's made several -EV calls to get to that point. It's from those mistakes that a good limit player picks up their profit. The kind of effect you're talking about, implicit collusion, requires WAY looser games than this. You're basically talking about all 9 players calling a 1 bet raise and it being your BB before you legitimately have odds to play any two.

[Penelopeys]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? I don't know a hell of a lot about odds, or potodds... I think :unsure But being a mathematician helps... I think :unsure ... so basically I just think in maths... But dunno if that can make me a really good player... :unsure ... probably not :unsure

[robilaruk]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? sorry GW you have played different games to me - from my experience at low/micro levels you get folks calling with virtually any 2 PF and then sticking with their hand whilst they still have some draw or pair - so you will see 6 folks calling to see the flop and then still call bets on the flop and yes - they are making mistakes to call with bottom pair, but they do despite the action in front of them - and at this point to pot prolly has 10 bets or more so they keep calling and if they need to hit their gutshot they are getting about the right price whether they are doing the right thing is another question, and I would agree that a good player profits from folks doing the wrong thing Damo

This isn't true. You frequently aren't getting pot odds to call gutshots and the like in limit games, even in multi-way pots. But more importantly, when you are, they're generally in a hand you shouldn't have been playing in the first place. You're more likely to get odds the further down the hand it goes - most equity and most mistakes are made with pre-flop calls. It's generally incorrect to fold on the river. A bad player might have odds to call to see the river on the gutshot, but that's neglecting the fact that he's made several -EV calls to get to that point. It's from those mistakes that a good limit player picks up their profit. The kind of effect you're talking about, implicit collusion, requires WAY looser games than this. You're basically talking about all 9 players calling a 1 bet raise and it being your BB before you legitimately have odds to play any two.

[Tax_Monkey]

Re: How far can you go not knowing odds? Not sure if this is going to make much sense...but I think both Guesswest and Damo are correct. At lower/lower mid limits Damo is correct (people make bad calls and then justify it afterwards by quoting pot odds that they had after the call but not before. On the other hand GW is correct because as he says the pot odds were never there for them to call in the first place. The problem with pot odds is that the kind of payers they work against are the kind of players who are likely to bust them.