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Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

DAC

By DAC
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DAC

DAC

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... hey Rafa, I think it's because my main "expertise" :lol is the Magners League and whilst I think I can make a profit on the HEC I am no where as well informed on Euro rugby than I am on the Celtic teams.

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DAC

DAC

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Dragons v Bucharesti - 7th Dec 06 Dai, you’re an idiot, a complete head the ball, what are you doing betting on the Dragons again?

Look, I just can’t help myself. We are putting out our strongest possible team tonight and I just can’t see how we are not going to be the might of Bucharesti by more than 50 points. Ok, so Bucharesti beat an Under 11 Reserve Bayonne XV and they ran a Bristol 2nd Team reasonably close in the Romanian capital which I can only applaud….but this is Rodney Parade.

This my friends is a decent team:

Dragons Kevin Morgan ©, Gareth Wyatt, Nathan Brew, Ashley Smith, Aled Brew, Ceri Sweeney, Gareth Cooper, Adam Black, Ben Daly, Lee Harrison, Ian Gough, Luke Charteris, Andrew Hall, Jamie Ringer, Colin Charvis

Replacements Kieran Crawford, Jamie Corsi, Michael Owen, Nic Fitisemanu, Alex Walker, Mike Hercus, Richard Fussell.

The vast majority of the side are rested as it was the Academy lads who played against Worcester in the EDF Cup last weekend. We are a physical side, very physical and whilst I’m sure Bucharesti will be up for this in their own way I can see them being beaten up by just not being used to the intensity and when they start to reel in the second half we have the players in Morgan, The Brews Brothers and Ceri Sweeney who can certainly carve out numerous scoring opportunities….Nic Fitsi will scare the life out of them when he appears in the second half.

I know a lot of you don’t like betting on big caps and I do understand the reasoning behind this but this, in my opinion, is a gimme. We are a good side and we punished a Bayonne side by 50, again with just our Academy lads. Just for the record – Gloucester beat Bucharesti by 106 points last year. Also…..”Billy Smart” – Mike Hercus the Circus isn’t starting...which is worth another 14 points for us.

Recommendation: Dragons –50 at Blue Square. All other books are operating around the –60 mark so I’m seeing it as a bonus 10 points for us.

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DAC

DAC

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Now…As You Know – I’m Not A Gambling Kinda Guy…..But if I were, I’d being going on these games this weekend

Calvisano v Ospreys

Calvisano have shipped over 100 points in their last two games in the HEC and the Opsreys are heading over to Italy with a view to a must-win bonus points victory if they are to be kept in the mix for qualification. –20 points is just a touch to low for a fully fit and rested Ospreys outfit.

Glasgow v Narbonne

Readers will know that I’ve been watching Glasgow for a few months now and I think they are primed to really shove it to this Narbonne team – You can’t really read to much into the 70 point stuffing Glasgow gave Parma in the last round apart from the fact Narbonne scrapped to a 3 point victory in Italy against the same team…..I think the French have now realised they are out of the comp and may send a team of kids over to Glasgow. The victory for Glasgow is imperative tonight. A shoe in at Glasgow –8 at Skybet.

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Rafa

Rafa

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... I fancy Leicester to win in Bourgoin tonight, they always do enough when their backs are to the wall; I've backed them outright, taken a positive view that that'll def come in and backed 80% of the (assumed) profits on that on them covering the handicap. I've done this before to good effect. If the form/motivated team wins well both bets come in, if they just fall over the line with the win & fail to make the handicap, the first bet over-covers the handicap bet so you're still up. I know there's a "double" loss potential but I like to think of it as betting on the handicap with insurance. Only a large upset finishes the bet off totally. Re: your two DAC; 50pts is a LOT to cover for any team, once the bonus point is won the motivation to stay going for more can be missing especially if there's bigger cames on the horizon. The Scottish bet looks good and am on the same, nothing in the game for Norbonne and rugby is the wrong sport to be playing if you're not 100% motivated.

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Jamesk

Jamesk

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... I fancy Ulster-3 to beat Irish. Ulster are a good side and the improvement in the Irish team this year is largely down to the emergence of quality players from this Ulster outfit like Bryan Young, Paddy Wallace, Neil Best, Isaac Boss etc. Trimble is back as well and I believe that player for player , they will have too much for Irish and will finally get an away win in England. Ulster by 9.

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Jamesk

Jamesk

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

Glasgow20 - 0 (20 - 0)NarbonneL
Tries: Henderson, Lamont
Pens: Parks 2
Cons: Parks 2
Glasgow20 - 0 (20 - 0)NarbonneL
Tries: Henderson, Lamont
Pens: Parks 2
Cons: Parks 2
Great call on Glasgow DAC- just missed it myself, hope u piled in
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kiwimike

kiwimike

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

Calvisano v Ospreys –20 points is just a touch to low for a fully fit and rested Ospreys outfit.

Glasgow v Narbonne

A shoe in at Glasgow –8 at Skybet.

Brillilant tipping there DAC :ok ...thankyou for posting mate, awesome stuff keep it up! :notworthy...i am enjoying following your tips for each week. I don't know how you do it ,but your rugby knowledge seems second to none in my books....well done
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mearl

mearl

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... :ok thanks as usual for dac your union input on here and on your blog. must admit that i was a bit aprehensive :unsure about dragons covering 50 points, :loon but you got your team spot on this week. the score updates were infrequent on the net and teletext, which added to the tension. (score showed as 14-3 after 30 minutes) i needn't have worried. :D it's much appreciated. :beer

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Rafa

Rafa

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Great calls DAC as always. Anyone looking at Munster today, be careful. Cardiff are VERY up for this match & Munster without Flannery away from Thomond are not shoe-ins by any means. The lineout is crucial to us and without Jerry Flannery it only functions at 60%.

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DAC

DAC

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Cheers for the kind words folks. European Betting Sumamry Bristol v Dragons Lost Castres v Treviso Win Calvisano v Stade Francais Lost Borders v Overmach Parma Win Leicester v Munster Lost Ulster v Toulouse Win Bourgoin v Cardiff Win Biarritz v Northampton Lost London Irish v Scarlets Win Agen v Edinburgh Win Dragons v Bucharest Win Calvisano v Ospreys Win Glasgow v Narbonne Win

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DAC

DAC

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Bristol v Bayonne Friday 14 Dec - KO 7.30 Here’s a gimme. If Bristol don’t beat the –37 points Cap against Bayonne then I’ll go to the foot of our stairs. Bayonnne have lost in Bucharest and got humped against the Dragons by 50 points. I was at the Dragons game and they literally got into our 22 once during the entire game…they were truly dire and that was against our Academy side. Granted Bristol may rest a few players but in order to beat the Dragons to the top of the group they need a bonus point to keep pace. They will get the BP easily and will want to repay a loyal and numerous crowd at the Memorial with a high scoring display. Just a quick note from Hill after the Bayonne game last week: “At Bayonne we had gale force winds and driving rain – the referee had to keep stopping the match because the advertising hoardings were being blown onto the pitch – and, as we were playing into the wind in the first half, we simply could not kick the ball. “That meant keeping the ball in hand and our ball retention and phase play was excellent, resulting in us scoring three very good tries and that was effectively the job done by half-time before we had the gale on our backs. Now we are focusing on the return leg.” Bayonne are basically using the same 22 as last week – honestly folks – a gimme. In fact it could get embarrassing for the French Recommendation: Bristol –37 @ Skybet*

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DAC

DAC

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Friday Night Action Well what can I say? I could do a write up on the Ospreys v Calvisano game but it would be a waste of time. The Ospreys are putting out a good side - Calvisano aren't. For those that saw the Ospreys game, they were given 3 tries on a plate - a massive shiney golden plate - I certainly don't think that will happen again. Ospreys: L Byrne; N Walker, A Bishop, J Hook, S Williams; G Henson, J Marshall; D Jones (capt), H Bennett, A Jones, A Jones, I Evans, J Thomas, S Tandy, R Jones.Replacements: B Williams, C Griffiths, B Cockbain, A Lloyd, M Roberts, S Connor, J Vaughton. It's raining in Swansea and I can understand why people may be afraid of the large Cap on this game. Recommendation: Ospreys -40 @ Paddy Power And: Winning Margin Bets with Ladbrokes 36-40 @ 6-1 and 31-35 @ 8-1 I know this is hardly exciting but it covers the cap draw and will produce a profit and at the end of the day thats what we are here for.

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kiwimike

kiwimike

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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread...

Bristol v Bayonne Friday 14 Dec - KO 7.30 Here’s a gimme. If Bristol don’t beat the –37 points Cap against Bayonne then I’ll go to the foot of our stairs. Bayonnne have lost in Bucharest and got humped against the Dragons by 50 points. I was at the Dragons game and they literally got into our 22 once during the entire game…they were truly dire and that was against our Academy side. Granted Bristol may rest a few players but in order to beat the Dragons to the top of the group they need a bonus point to keep pace. They will get the BP easily and will want to repay a loyal and numerous crowd at the Memorial with a high scoring display. Just a quick note from Hill after the Bayonne game last week: “At Bayonne we had gale force winds and driving rain – the referee had to keep stopping the match because the advertising hoardings were being blown onto the pitch – and, as we were playing into the wind in the first half, we simply could not kick the ball. “That meant keeping the ball in hand and our ball retention and phase play was excellent, resulting in us scoring three very good tries and that was effectively the job done by half-time before we had the gale on our backs. Now we are focusing on the return leg.” Bayonne are basically using the same 22 as last week – honestly folks – a gimme. In fact it could get embarrassing for the French Recommendation: Bristol –37 @ Skybet*
Once again superb work there DAC !:ok .....your a legend mate.Thanks ;)
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