Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying (amongst other things)

[aliando]

several weeks learning how to use excel and then creating a system based upon previous results, all summed up in a title that took 3 seconds to think of :lol the actual workings are under wraps but the general plan is simple - take the previous results and put them through a very simplistic mathematical calculation to work out the true values of team performances and then match up the teams. There are several steps which will be taken to arrive at, hopefully, a very successful laying system. Step 1 Compare home v away teams in order to arrive at a match value. A positive value will point towards laying the away side. A negative value will point towards laying the home side. As expected, there will be a lot more qualifiers for away lays than homes. I intend to compare rating/outcome at a later date so will be including all the weekends fixtures and match rating to see if certain values return better outcomes (although at first I'll solely be looking at strike rate for all games due to time constraints) - my thinking here is that where games are 'too close to call' the odds could provide a useful tool whereas the obvious games will have odds that reflect this. Step 2 Using other statistical data from the web (such as home/away tables and form), I will round down my selections. Step 3 The non-systematic approach - My own knowledge will come into play to make the final selections and I'll be looking at the vlaue of the available odds also. To avoid being stung by big prices, I'll keep all lay bets to under odds of 4.00. For now, I'll be simply doing a paper trail and use the lay prices on betfair at the time that i've made my selections, so if this is successful, there'll be room to improve the yield, hopefully. selections will only be for satday/sunday for now and only posted when time allows due to shift work/young baby who doesnt understand daddys time for gambling As this is just hitting the ground running, I'll be looking for ways to tweak it slightly, so some changes may occur along the way. :hope

[aliando]

Re: Previous Results Form Ratings Used For Laying Step 1 Saturday, 14 October 2006 Barclays Premiership Arsenal v Watford 10 Aston Villa v Tottenham 27.7 Liverpool v Blackburn 16.3 Man City v Sheff Utd 34.7 Middlesbrough v Everton 1.0 Portsmouth v West Ham 23.7 Reading v Chelsea, 3.4 Wigan v Man Utd, 14.3 The Coca-Cola Football League Championship Burnley v Hull, 2.8 Crystal Palace v Cardiff 2.4 Ipswich v West Brom 15.6 Leeds v Stoke 15.6 Leicester v Southampton -20.4 Luton v Birmingham, 13.8 Preston v Sunderland 29.2 QPR v Norwich 6.2 Sheff Wed v Barnsley -6.6 Wolverhampton v Colchester 0.4 Coca-Cola Football League One Blackpool v Yeovil -8.8 Bristol City v Crewe 23.5 Cheltenham v Doncaster 4.3 Chesterfield v Swansea 8.2 Gillingham v Nottm Forest -11 Huddersfield v Carlisle 15.3 Millwall v Bournemouth 3.2 Oldham v Leyton Orient 33 Rotherham v Brentford 5.2 Scunthorpe v Brighton 14.9 Coca-Cola Football League Two Barnet v Lincoln City -20.9 Boston Utd v Mansfield 14.6 Hartlepool v Stockport 9.8 Hereford v Darlington 3 Macclesfield v Bury -11.6 Notts County v Bristol Rovers 34.3 Peterborough v Shrewsbury -17 Rochdale v Chester -4 Swindon v Grimsby 23 Torquay v Accrington Stanley 12.7 Walsall v Wycombe 15 Wrexham v Milton Keynes Dons 11.4 Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League Dundee Utd v Celtic 12.8 Falkirk v St Mirren -12.3 Kilmarnock v Aberdeen 3.4 Motherwell v Dunfermline 5.4 Rangers v Inverness CT 13.8 Scottish Football League Championship First Division Airdrie Utd v Clyde -6.5 Queen of South v Partick -15.2 Ross County v Dundee -11.7 St Johnstone v Gretna -6 Scottish Football League Championship Second Division Alloa v Cowdenbeath -5.5 Ayr v Stirling -11.3 Brechin v Peterhead -4 Raith v Morton -12.5 Stranraer v Forfar 9.3 Scottish Football League Championship Third Division Albion v Berwick -9.2 Arbroath v Queens Park 5.9 Dumbarton v Montrose 4.5 Elgin v East Stirling -5.3 Stenhousemuir v East Fife 8.9 Sunday, 15 October 2006 Barclays Premiership Newcastle v Bolton -6 The Coca-Cola Football League Championship Plymouth v Derby 5.2 Bank of Scotland Scottish Premier League Hibernian v Hearts -0.3 either tonight or tomorrow, I'll post up the final selections with the at-the-time betfair prices. edited into first post: selections will only be for satday/sunday for now and only posted when time allows due to shift work/young baby who doesnt understand daddys time for gambling ;)