NFL Wk. 6.

[TazaD]

13-9-2 (+2.84) Had a couple of averagely poor weeks...but really like this card!! Quietly confident of a decent week ahead. NYG @ Atl under 43 (2 units) (1.86) Ahhh…my favourite trend of all time… League: 7-37 under (av. total 40.2…av. score 33.1!) home 3- fav off a BYE. ** 3-20 under (av. total 42.7…av. score 34.0) if total >40. ** (2 of the ‘overs’ have only occurred due to OT, inc. Wash 20-17 Seattle (OT) last season @ 36.5) (1-2 under last season…the over being the OT game…Cleve 20-10 Chic @ 35.5, Buff 14-3 KC @ 41) Love this play…It’s a double because I liked it anyway. Atlanta have a very under-rated D. They have allowed just 10.5 ppg, and only 3 TD’s all season. On the other side of the ball they are still very much a run oriented offense…so far they have run the ball over 64% of the time, because they know that Vick won’t beat teams with his arm…he completes under 50% of passes, so they rely on his run and obviously Dunn. Quite surprisingly, the Giants have the 3rd best run D in the NFL, allowing just 86 y/game @ 3.0 y/rush! They should be able to slow the Atl offence significantly…an offence that has trouble scoring anyway. They av. just 17 ppg, and before picking apart a terrible Arizona team, they hadn’t topped 20. They struggle massively in the red zone (due mainly to the opp stacking against the run), and have scored just 3 TD’s from 17 trips inside the 20!! Under, under, under!! Cinci @ TB over 42 (1.95) This is not the Tampa we have all grown to know. They are allowing 22 ppg so far, and a staggering 5.0 y/rush! Rudi Johnson should have a HUGE game here, which will also open up the deep pass for Palmer and co. Cinci themselves are giving up over 21 ppg…25 ppg over the last 3 if we take out the KC game where Green went out. Initially it looked like Tampa would struggle to score, but 24 and 21 in the last 2 weeks, and it’s now apparent that their first 3 games were against very strong defenses. Williams finally got on track last week, rushing for 111 yards on 20 carries…and whether that’s a product of a poor NO run D or Gradkowski being more of a passing threat is debatable…but either way he should have similar success against this Cinci D who are allowing 4.6 y/rush. Like this over at 43 or less. Washington -10 (1.95) League: 3-8-1 (Av. loss 11.9) away 7+ dog off a 14+ ats win as away 10+ dog. [Tenn] Washington are also in a 14-3 ‘over’ situation where the team (Wash in this case!) scores 28.4 ppg. I just love the way this one sets up. Tennessee off a “good†performance sticking with Indi last week, and Washington off an absolute clunker!... …but, as we should know by now, Indi just aren’t that great! The Titans were able to take advantage of the Colts terrible run D, keep possession and control the clock. That will not happen this week against a far stronger Washington D. Also, for some reason Indi seemed content to play it conservative, almost as if they were reluctant to throw down field…again, Washington won’t make the mistake of letting them hang around. The ‘Skins scored just 3 points last week, but surprisingly the Giants are 3rd best in the NFL at stopping the run (3.0 y/r)…Tenn are 4th worst @ 4.7 y/rush. Portis has a big game, Brunell gets it going, the Washington D do their job and this one becomes a blow out. Jets -1 (1.88) League: 11-0 SU (10-1 ats…av. win 13.3) any fav, off a 21+ ats loss as a 7+ dog, if total is <40. [Jets] (1-0 this season, SF def. Oak last week) (Opp held to just 9.5 ppg) League: 0-10 SU (1-9 ats…av. loss 18.0!) any away dog, off a 3- ats loss as a 7+ dog, if total is <37. [Mia] )team scores 7.3 ppg!!) So a combined 21-0 SU (19-2 ats) trend favouring the Jets!! Basically Miami are a horribly bad team! If a team gets belted as big dogs but then is still favs the week after, they are playing a very bad team indeed! Miami getting too much credit for keeping the spread close last week. Not sure what else to say. Harrington is just awful…esp. in the red zone…and if there was one good piece of news from last week for the Jets, it’s that they didn’t hurt their TD/FG ratio! LOL! (13/2) Actually, statistically the Jets D isn’t that bad. Allowing 6.7 y/pass…but Miami allow 6.4…and despite last week’s performance (which must be said, was away @ Jacksonville who were on a huge mission to turn around a big loss the week before), Pennington is a far better QB than Joey. Miami av. 12.2 ppg, and are 0-5 ats…not that tough to go against them basically at a PK. Baltimore -3 (1.93) League: 16-2-2 (Av. win 7.6…both pushes @ 3) as 3- fav off any SU loss as an away dog, if the total is <40 and opp was last a 7+ fav. [balt] (1-0 last season. Det 35-17 Balt @ -1 (32.5)) 8-0-1 (Av. win 6.7) if opp won SU by 7+. Just seems that Carolina are getting too much respect for being big favs (and winning big) last week…but they were extremely lucky to do so. The INT return for a TD should have been caught by a Browns’ receiver, and that would have made it a much closer game. Baltimore pretty much dominated the Monday Night game in Denver, but a couple of CRUCIAL mistakes at terrible times really hurt. Their D is amazing, allowing just 9.2 ppg, 2.9 y/rush, 5.1 y/pass, and I’m not sure how the Panthers put up much of a score. They won’t be able to run on this D, they av. just 5.3 y/pass, and a league low 18.6% 3rd down conversions!! I’ll take the league’s best D at home laying less than a FG any week. NO +4 (1.89) League: 8-18 (Av. win 1.2) any fav of 7 or less, off a home 10+ ats win, if opp is off a home ats loss and the total is 40+. [Phil] (1-2 last season, but the ‘win’ was in OT. Seattle 13-10 Dallas @ -4.5; SD 23-17 Wash in OT @ -3; Seattle 28-24 Ten @ -7) 2-8 (Av. LOSS 1.3) if they are away favs. League: 9-2 (Av. WIN 5.5)_ any home dog off a SU win but ats loss at home, if opp is off any ats win. [NO] (2-0 last season. Same Tenn v. Seattle game…and Chic 13-3 Caro @ +2.5) Obviously there is one common game in these trends, but a combined 16-4 ats is a reasonable clip. The high total suggests that the Eagle D isn’t really good enough to lay too many points, esp. on the road. Sure, they are 4-1 and apparently flying, but wins against Tenn. SF and GB mean nothing, and let’s face it, they were 4 yards away from OT last week. NO just keep doing what they have to do. Also 4-1, with the loss being by just 3 points. Brees is super efficient and Bush & McAllister are a very potent backfield combo. I guess the one knock on them is that they are yet to face a potent attack, but they allow just 17 ppg, and I’ve got a feeling that Philli might just struggle on their first real test on the road. Detroit v. Buff under 39.5 (1.98) League: 3-20 under (av. total 40.5…av. score 35.9) home 3- dog, off a 3- ats loss as away 3+ dog. [Det] (0-5 under last season. Oak 17-23 KC @ 53, Jets 14-12 TB @ 31.5, Dal 33-10 Phil @ 44, SF 10-17 ‘Zona @ 44, Jets 26-10 Oak @ 37) (1-12 under (av. total 36.7…av. score 30.8!) if total <40) 1-11 under (av. total 39.5…av. score 33.6) if opp is off any ats loss. League: 4-13 under (av. total 38.6…av. score 33.4) away (any line) off a 21+ ats loss as an away 7+ dog. [buff] Massive under trends here, and although I swore off playing Detroit games a week or two ago, I can’t really ignore this. (I ignored a massive ‘under’ trend last week in the NYG/Wash game ‘cause I thought there’d be scoring, so not making that mistake again!) But this game certainly has some merit. Buffalo av. just 15.4 ppg, and have scored 16 and 7 on the road. They run as much as they pass, and realistically their passing game won’t beat too many teams. Detroit run D still very good, allowing just 3.3 y/rush. Despite 2 BIG games of scoring, it’s still apparent that the Lions attack just isn’t all it’s cracked up to be…34 and 24 against SL and GB both in the bottom 10 defenses and just 6, 7 and 17 against decent stoppers. Both teams under 30% at converting 3rd downs, both teams rush for <3.8 y/rush, and I don’t think the Bills’ passing game can take advantage of Detroit’s poor pass D/rush.

[davidmphill]

Re: NFL Wk. 6. Nice work Taza. Starting to get into the NFL again this season. Good luck with the picks. Even my side, the 49ers have managed to win 2 games already! Mind you it was only Oakland last week!!