ads25 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Round 4 (All times local at venue)Prev Round | Next RoundMonday, October 9, 2006Match (Home v Away)VenueTimeTVSlingersvRazorbacksSingapore Indoor Stadium08:00PM WSTWednesday, October 11, 2006Match (Home v Away)VenueTimeTVBulletsvCrocodilesBrisbane Convention Centre07:30PM AESTThursday, October 12, 2006Match (Home v Away)VenueTimeTVSlingersvHawksSingapore Indoor Stadium08:00PM WSTBreakersvWildcatsTrusts Stadium - Waitakere07:00PM NZDTFriday, October 13, 2006Match (Home v Away)VenueTimeTV36ersvBulletsDistinctive Homes Dome - Adelaide07:40PM CSTCrocodilesvKingsTownsville Entertainment Centre08:00PM AESTSaturday, October 14, 2006Match (Home v Away)VenueTimeTVTaipansvKingsCairns Convention Centre07:40PM AESTTigersvSlingersState Netball Hockey Centre - Melbourne07:30PM AESTRazorbacksvBreakersOlympic Park Sports Centre - Sydney07:40PM AESTDragonsvHawksVodafone Arena - Melbourne07:40PM AESTSunday, October 15, 2006Match (Home v Away)VenueTimeTVBulletsvWildcatsBrisbane Convention Centre06:40PM AEST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Another week of NBL basketball starts up again, well it started last night with the Slingers/Razorbacks match (and lets not speak of it again shall we) We have a break tonight, but the next 5 days there is plenty of games to bet on. Interesting to note, out of the 20 games already played this season, the home team has won 13 of them. Home court advantage is a pretty big advantage to some teams, for example Singapore, Perth & New Zealand as South and North Australian teams have to travel long distances to get their. Since Miguel started the NBL thread last week we have all been tipping winners, last nights match excluded, so lets keep up the good work guys :ok Happy Punting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 10, 2006 Author Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) I'll do a better preview tommorow on match day, but Brisbane Bullets should have a big win over Townsville Crocodiles in my opinion. They have better players in each position but they are only paying $1.28 at Centrebet, i will probably look at the HT/FT or the Over 10.5 markets here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Good to see someone with such an interest in a sport. Keep up the good work ads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Initial thougths here are for Brisbane, Brisbane -9 is at $2.00, might be worth a crack, will look into it soon. :ok to Ads for the thread, take your money to the Aussie market because we have 'em covered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Last meeting = Round 17, 23-Dec-2005 at Brisbane : Brisbane vs Townsville 128 - 90 We have to go back to Jan 2003 for the last win by the Crocs at Brisbane, so a fair home advantage here. Brisbane vs Townsville 105 - 94 Brisbane vs Townsville 134 - 128 Brisbane vs Townsville 111 - 92 When Brisbane win at home it's high scoring and by a bit, to the -9 and over points look good here. Some News and last match stats: Brisbane: Brisbane Bullets star guard Stephen Black is set for his long-awaited return from injury Last match saw the Bullets beat the Tigers at home, a great win at the start of the season, in their opening match they lost to the Kings however. The Bullets raced out of the box leading 30-22 at the end of the first period, the Bullets were kind of lucky against the Tigers here with the Tigers only hitting 17% of 3 point shots, if they had of hit the same percentage as the Bullets they would have won. This highlights the pressure that the Bullets were able to apply to the Tigers and should apply to the free running Crocs tomorrow. The Crocs: No Team news is in yet for the Crocs but all of the team who scored the win last time against the Tipans should start here. In the only game of comparison here the Crocs managed to beat the Kings in the first round, 117-103. The Crocs lost away to Perth who are the form team thus far this season, only by 10 points tho. The Crocs have shared their points around alot with their top five players averaging over 17 points per game. The more I have a look at this the more I am inclined to keep my money away from this, history says the Bullets will win easy, but the form looks good for the Crocs who are coming off their local derby with a sail full of wind. I like the Crocs at +10.5 but this is against the history and on paper the Bullets are a better side with more stars. I am going to have 2 points here just for interest at the +10.5 for the Crocs and wait for the game score to come up. Some better games latter in the week for a punt than this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Can someone say track meet tonight....? OVERS 210.5 Bullets v Crocs - $1.85 good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Hi guys, Been working on generating some stats the last few nights to help us determine winners and will look at putting them in here each week before a round of matches. I'll explain each table as i go and so you understand for future weeks, pretty straight forward though really. So here goes! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Also when I get more time i will look at adding in a system which will generate predicted outcomes for each match based on individual teams stats using quarter averages, half averages and home & away averages. I used the same sort of concept for the AFL football this season and at times it proved fairly accurate, with the basketball it should work alot better considering the NBL is more consistent than the AFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Great stuff Ads :clap, will follow with interest, got any down for tonights game? Also they just said on the radio that channel 9 will cover 1 live match per week as well as the one hour highlights show on a sunday, good news for the NBL. I am planning to go to a few Dragons and Tigers games this season and the season looks to be shaping up well, however the odds are shortening for the favs this week. Too much sport, rugby tri nations, a-league, domestic cricket starting up, afl trade week, my heads going to explode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Brisbane vs Townsville To me this looks like a simple Brisbane victory in what is the Queensland derby. Both teams are coming off good victories, but i must admit that Townsville were lucky to beat the Taipans as they showed they have big problems in defence. Larry Abney carried them home last week in a strong last quarter but i dont think he will make as big as impact tonight as what he did last week. For Brisbane big Sam Mackinnon was fantastic last week while Dusty Rychart and CJ Bruton are in their usual great form and with these 3 in such good form, and possibly Mark Bradtke returning ill be getting on Brisbane. Plus they are great at their home court. As Brisbane are too short to back at $1.28, there are several intersting bets i will look at in this one. First is the Brisbane/Brisbane HT/FT which pays $1.60 as the stats suggest Brisbane are good in first halves compared to Townsville. Also i will look at the Brisbane winning margin of over 10.5 points at $2.30 which is a real possibility. Last is the total game score to finish over 212.5 points at $1.94, look at the stats to see why. All look good bets to me so its just a matter of which one you want to pick. Pick HT/FT of BRIS/BRIS at $1.60 - (8/10) Pick Bris to win Over 10.5 at $2.30 - (5/10) Pick Total Score to end OVER 212.5 at $1.94 - (7/10) Good luck!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) :clap:clap:clap:ok, go big and go hard, great stuff and BOL! In the first to 10 points market I usualy like the home team but I think the Crocs at $2.35 might be worth a look in here. The crocs like to play quick and keep the ball moving, I am interested in the first to 10 here based on the time between games, the Bullets have had a week off after a slower paced game against the Tigers, the Crocs played 4 days ago and I like them to come out of the blocks very quick and maybe catch the Bullets napping here. Still deciding if I sould have a stake here, mighty tempting at $2.35. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 11, 2006 Author Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) :clap:clap:clap:ok, go big and go hard, great stuff and BOL! In the first to 10 points market I usualy like the home team but I think the Crocs at $2.35 might be worth a look in here. The crocs like to play quick and keep the ball moving, I am interested in the first to 10 here based on the time between games, the Bullets have had a week off after a slower paced game against the Tigers, the Crocs played 4 days ago and I like them to come out of the blocks very quick and maybe catch the Bullets napping here. Still deciding if I sould have a stake here, mighty tempting at $2.35. Both teams average around 30 points in the first quarter, but Crocodiles seem to have a better first quarter record at this early stage if you look at the above stats. I like your thinking Miguel and good odds for it also. Good luck if you go ahead with the bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emtepe76 Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Will you be watching Bullets' game guys? Or no tv coverage available? I wonder if any live comments are possible here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Will you be watching Bullets' game guys? Or no tv coverage available? I wonder if any live comments are possible here... It's on Fox sports 3, but if you check out the NBL.com.au site there is a live summary console that is quite good for stats and scores :ok But to answer no, I'll be watching the Aussies do a number on Bahrain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Can someone say track meet tonight....? OVERS 210.5 Bullets v Crocs - $1.85 good luck This one's a writeoff already .. first loss of the NBL season on the way for me .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emtepe76 Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) I took over [email protected] and now it's covered. :nana 116-97 (213) and almost 3 min left ... OK. Final score: Brisbane 123 - 104 Townsville 1Q: 25:27 2Q: 30:18 3Q: 40:34 !! 4Q: 28:25 All the ads25 picks won. I have chosen this over after his suggestions. Thanks man! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Flamboyant Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) This one's a writeoff already .. first loss of the NBL season on the way for me .. Well someone looks a little stupid don't they .. ?!:lol I guess the lesson learned is an "over" is never over when the Bullets play the Crocs ..! win .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Brisbane vs Townsville To me this looks like a simple Brisbane victory in what is the Queensland derby. Both teams are coming off good victories, but i must admit that Townsville were lucky to beat the Taipans as they showed they have big problems in defence. Larry Abney carried them home last week in a strong last quarter but i dont think he will make as big as impact tonight as what he did last week. For Brisbane big Sam Mackinnon was fantastic last week while Dusty Rychart and CJ Bruton are in their usual great form and with these 3 in such good form, and possibly Mark Bradtke returning ill be getting on Brisbane. Plus they are great at their home court. As Brisbane are too short to back at $1.28, there are several intersting bets i will look at in this one. First is the Brisbane/Brisbane HT/FT which pays $1.60 as the stats suggest Brisbane are good in first halves compared to Townsville. Also i will look at the Brisbane winning margin of over 10.5 points at $2.30 which is a real possibility. Last is the total game score to finish over 212.5 points at $1.94, look at the stats to see why. All look good bets to me so its just a matter of which one you want to pick. Pick HT/FT of BRIS/BRIS at $1.60 - (8/10) :clap:clap:clap Pick Bris to win Over 10.5 at $2.30 - (5/10) :clap:clap:clap Pick Total Score to end OVER 212.5 at $1.94 - (7/10) :clap:clap:clap Good luck!! :ok Great effort Ads and think you have truend me to Basketball :loon The game does nothing for me but I reckon Basketball stats will be better value for predicting an outcome compared to soccer, as the results will be more even one would think. Congrats on your great stats in here for the NBL. Would it be possible to keep providing the tables as you have in here, but also making a condensed verison with 1/4 by 1/4 stats for and against in the one table for easy one place reference? That would be great for a non Basketball guy like me. Keep up the great work :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Ill second that adds. Fantastic picks mate. Keep up the good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Your stats got me thinking about doing a rateform type thing with the NBL that is often used for Soccer to find the better performing teams. Basically teams start with 1000 points at start of season and home teams gives 7% and away team 5% and winner takes all points, and loser loses points. The percentage figures are the total of the two ratings divided by each team's rating, and I have just divided the percentage figure from 100 to get the odds figure, purely mathematical odds based on the ratings. I did some rateform figures for the first 3 rounds and here are the results. If a team had 100 points more than it's opponent then it qualified. Rating Date Home % Odds Odds % Away Rating 994 27-Sep-06 Slingers 47 $2.13 100 109 $1.88 53 Wildcats 1126 WON 1126 29-Sep-06 Wildcats 56 $1.78 119 84 $2.29 44 36ers 875 WON 1111 29-Sep-06 Kings 56 $1.79 109 83 $2.26 44 Dragons 880 WON 888 3-Oct-06 Bullets 44 $2.26 98 85 $1.79 56 Tigers 1120 LOST 1249 4-Oct-06 Wildcats 53 $1.90 117 107 $2.12 47 Crocodiles 1120 WON 1000 5-Oct-06 Breakers 45 $2.23 94 99 $1.81 55 Kings 1233 WON 880 8-Oct-06 Hawks 47 $2.14 101 108 $1.88 53 Tigers 1002 WON Not sure what it means but 6/7 winners isn't bad considering so early in the season. Figures should settle down after a few rounds and might be a handy guide to find the better performed teams when they are against a lesser performed team. Just for interest...The figures for tomorrow night and Slingers has a rating of less than 1000 so not sure how reliable they are, as all the winners above had ratings over 1000. See how it goes I guess. Rating Date Home % Odds Odds % Away Rating 973 12-Oct-06 Slingers 56 $1.79 Vs $2.27 44 Hawks 768 868 12-Oct-06 Breakers 38 $2.60 Vs $1.62 62 Wildcats 1392 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) New Zealand vs Perth New Zealand 2.25 (+3.0) 1.90 (+1.5) 2.00 Perth 1.65 (-3.0) 1.90 (-4.5) 2.00 Over/Under (+204.5) 1.90 Singapore vs Wollongong Singapore 2.30 (+3.5) 1.90 (+2.0) 2.00 Wollongong 1.62 (-3.5) 1.90 (-5.0) 2.00 Over/Under (+202.5) 1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) The Slingers all the way here, at home they look sensational and this has to be the hardest road trip in Australian Sport. The $2.30 looks like a gift and I am on it (and the rateform looks good too!), not much more to say but this looks like the bet of the week to me. I would have to say that Perth will continue it's unbeaten season opeining tonight too, they have looked great thus far and have easily accounted for all of their opposition so far, including the Slingers away (now that is a road trip to Singapore and back from Perth!). To get $1.65 for the ladder leaders is a steal here too. Multi for both matches straight = $3.80 Multi for Perth -4.5 into the Slingers straight = $4.60 I'll do some further analysis but these both look red hot to me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Thanks guys, had a fantastic night last night and was wrapped that all 3 tips got up. When you get games like that where the favourite is paying $1.30 or something theres always plenty of other ways to find some good value and luckily i found 3 ways last night, so hopefully some of you won some money. As for tonights games, i think Mig is on the money with his tips so far. I also will do some previews shortly, but the Slingers and Wildcats both look good to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Well Ads and Miguel have convinced me to have a crack at the Basketball. Hope I don't put the kaiber on it :loon Couldn't get on Perth cos not on Centrebet. Had a crack at Slingers to win @ 2.31 Slingers/Slingers for the ht/ft double @ $3.40 And also Over 202.5 @ $1.90 Good luck to me on my first Basketball venture :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Singapore Slingers vs Wollongong Hawks Originally at first glance i fancied the Singapore Slingers to win this one, but the more and more i look into this the more i fancy the Wollongong Hawks. Sure its a long trip over to Singapore but Hawks have always seemed to be good travellers and their final quarter effort last week against the 36ers in Adelaide was an awesome effort. Also with the form that Cortez Groves & Glen Saville are in at the moment they are capable of beating anyone anywhere anytime and they also have good backup in players like Adam Ballinger and Casey Frank. One of the main worries i have with Singapore at the moment is their heavy workload this week as they play 3 games in 6 days. It started Monday night when they had a big 126-89 win over the Razorbacks but some suggest the scoreline flattered them a bit. After tonights game they have another 2 days before they play Melbourne away so fatigue could be an issue for them tonight or perhaps some players will be rotated to avoid fatigue and the trip to Melbourne on Saturday. Having said all that, I still think the Slingers are in with a slight chance to win but i just cant go past the Hawks tonight and I will be backing them, but may need to find a bit more value as $1.60 is too short for a game they could well lose. Looking at the stats, they show us that the Hawks do well in both the 1st and 2nd quarters while the Slingers are a bit slow at starting. So the Hawks/Hawks HT/FT at $2.00 appeals to me. The Hawks at the -5.5 handicap paying $2.10 apeals to me also as I think the Hawks are capable of a big win tonight. The Slingers 2nd half performances this year have been really good and what has kept them alive so far, but if fatigue kicks in and the Hawks get off to their usual good start, i think the Hawks could run away with a big win tonight so the $2.10 on offer for the -5.5 looks good, but so does also the Hawks to win by Over 10.5 points at $3.90. I wouldnt put high stakes on that but i believe the Hawks are more than capable of a big win here, but im banking on the Slingers having a slow last half. So to conclude: Pick Hawks/Hawks HT/FT at $2.00 - (5/10) Pick Hawks -5.5 HANDICAP at $2.10 - (5/10) Or the Ads25 longshot of: Hawks to win by OVER 10.5 points at $3.90 - (2/10) Happy Punting!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: NBL Australian Basketball - Round 4 (Oct 9-15) Well Ads and Miguel have convinced me to have a crack at the Basketball. Hope I don't put the kaiber on it :loon Couldn't get on Perth cos not on Centrebet. Had a crack at Slingers to win @ 2.31 Slingers/Slingers for the ht/ft double @ $3.40 And also Over 202.5 @ $1.90 Good luck to me on my first Basketball venture :hope Reason you cant bet on the Wildcats match is because it has already started. Wildcats currently trail the Breakers by 1 point midway into the second term 27-26 As for the other game Beejay, I just did some research and a preview and realised Slingers werent such a good bet. They are a chance to win, but Hawks will be too good I think. Best of luck though :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.