Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help

[AJ]

This is something that I've been considering on and off for a while, but came to the forefront of my mind after going out in 4th place at a live game last night (22 players, 4 places paid). 33,000 chips on the table, all of us with roughly the same ammount of chips, I've got 6,000 chips. Blinds 300/600 I'm UTG. I'm dealt 44, and decide that my 44's will hold up ok and and raise 3,000 in what is basicaly a blind steal. The fella on the button, re-raises my all-in, everyone else folds. He turns over K5s. A look at poker stove this morning tells me, I was a 53% fav at this stage, so basicaly a coin flip. However the flop comes KKK, and his quad kings, crush my 4's. But got me thinking, what is the correct approach to post buble play ? I'm not clear on the way to go here, I could tighten up but I'd fold a lot of winning hands with only 4 at the table, and 300/600 blinds are going to hurt pretty quickly. My heads up play is fine now, winning way more than losing, but I'm struggling a little here. Suggestions / insight ??

[Penelopeys]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help IMO it depends if you're going for the big win... or if you're playing to just get a little more than 4th place at this stage. For me it varies from game to game... If you're going for 1st place you need to try and steal as much as you can, gamble basically, which means pushing with a pair is a right way to play. When he reraises you probably put him on a better hand than 44... (And K5 :unsure ) but with half your stack in the pot you're comitted. If you went for 1st you played the right way :ok

[GaF]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help I think there's a Bubble article in this months IE - will probably be on their site soon (I presume you dont get IE in NZ) ;) I haven't read it yet so cannot offer any insight into what it says..... One of the most important things to Bubble play IMO is the prize structure - where are the big jumps in prize money? Usually for MTT's it's right at the top, for STT's it's nearer the bubble.....

[Valiant23]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help Post bubble is the best part of a tourney imo (obviously). As regards a strategy then it depends on your situation. Short Stack Obviously you want to build your stack but are likely to get called which means (imo) choosing to push with hands (outside the better ones) that give more options than just pairing the board such as any 2 above J10, but add maybe K/Q/J 9 and 10/9 suited. I firmly believe we can do better than 'shoving with any two'. That said you can target the slightly bigger stacks while you still have fold equity, but pick your spot wisely. Average Stack You want avoid being blinded out which means making some moves, and really if you have confidence with your HU play then exploit your position to manufacture HU situations. The chances are that at least one player will fold maybe even two, so instead of looking at the table as short-handed look at it and your cards like a multi-way HU (I think I've suggested this before). 44 isn't the worst hand in the world, but personally when I have pushed in those scenarios and been outdrawn I think I'd maybe have been better pushing with the hands listed above, although there is nothing you can do about quads. Big Stack Obviously you want to keep your spot, but under no circumstances should you panic if you lose no.1 position. You can target the smaller stacks with more marginal hands, and if you know a shortie pushes with any A and you don't have one, then take a chance. I aportion an amount of my chips when I'm a big stack and call it my 'bully stack'. Say I have 11,000 chips and I'm big stack, then I'd probably have a 'bully stack' that I'd be happy to gamble with, of say 2,000. If that goes then I tighten up. I think yesterday when I played the Party Poker shootout in my 2nd table I went through all 3 stages, from shortie to big stack, and IIRC this is what I did. ed watched me so may be better placed to agree/disagree whether this is accurate as to how I played.

[AJ]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help It's quite a step break down in prizes, 50%, 30%, 12.5%, 7.5% iirc. so the money for 4th place, pays for my entry fee and the 3 beers I bought. Let's be clear I want to win this tournement, but I'm not remotely stressed about the money, I'm not rich but am reasonably well off, most of my poker money comes from online play where I'm creaming the 9 player stts on tribeca. There is no fear factor to my play. I want to finish as high as poss to feel good about it. Last 4 weeks, I've finished 5, 2, 4, 4, I feel I'm as good a player as anyone there, but am underachiving. I often notice that the first 5 - 10 hands after the bubble feature some very agressive play, lets call this "post bubble maddness syndrome", I tend to get involved in this and look for a double up. Perhaps I'm too loose here and should sit tight for these 10 hands unless I get a good pair. This will mean that someone else may double up, but I'm then sure of third spot, and still have enough of a stack to be a danger.

[Penelopeys]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help

. Perhaps I'm too loose here and should sit tight for these 10 hands unless I get a good pair. This will mean that someone else may double up, but I'm then sure of third spot, and still have enough of a stack to be a danger.

Then you're not playing for 1st IMO :unsure You have to be aggressive to get 1st... (and lucky too)

[AJ]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help

Then you're not playing for 1st IMO :unsure You have to be aggressive to get 1st... (and lucky too)

So you think I should continue to get stuck in here and take my chances ? You don't see much wrong with my play here ?

[GaF]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help I think conventional wisdom if playing for the win is that you play aggressive approaching the bubble (against opponents who are tight and worried about missing out) and then tight immediately post bubble (against opponents who have hit the cash and are now "carefree"). That fits in with the wisdom that you should usually try and play the opposite to the way the table is playing.......

[PAULM03]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help Just an observation (as I'm obviously no expert), you had 10BB and used 5 of them trying to raise people out of the pot. You then called a re-raise all-in, why? With only 10BB left and pocket 4s I would either be folding or going all-in. If you're trying to use half your stack to buy the pot you have to be incredibly wary of a re-raise, especially with small cards. In my (very limited) experience I've found post-bubble play where the blinds are a sizable proportion of stack to be a game primarily of high cards.

[Penelopeys]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help

So you think I should continue to get stuck in here and take my chances ? You don't see much wrong with my play here ?

Sounds to me as 2 leading questions...? :unsure I am merely posting my point of view... and I don't see anything wrong with your play in this particular situation... If you're playing to win. You can probably fold you way to 3rd or 2nd... but is that why we play poker? I would go in with a pp in a 4 way pot... but again it depends of the game at the table, is it tight, is it not... etc etc...

[ubermonkey1]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help i tend to stay out of things a bit post bubble ,but this is usually because of 1) post bubble madness(as said above people do tend to loosen hugely once in the money) 2)a great many games the bubble pops as you hit a new set of players (final table or top 20 etc)i do tend to try to get a gauge on my opponents before i play much ,so i am usually tighter with new players joining. 3)i usually play looser in the middle third of the game ,so i tend to go tight after the bubble to throw people off a bit then go for it again once its down to top 5 out of 10. however everything is situational so in your position i would be aggressive ,with only 4 people left blinds come round too quick to hold back when you have a half decent hand.so i would probably been all in with the 4s that you had ,just to pick up the pot hopefully or win a coinflip if i get lucky. once you get down to the final 4 luck will play a much greater part in the game ,so i think your doing a pretty fine job with 4 money finishes out of 5:clap :clap :clap :clap making good decisions is the real art to poker and to get in the top 20% 5 games on the trot is pretty tricky in a small field of players ,so you must be doing the right thing more often than not. keep up the good work and with a bit of luck the win will come soon:ok

[AJ]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help

Sounds to me as 2 leading questions...? :unsure I am merely posting my point of view... and I don't see anything wrong with your play in this particular situation... If you're playing to win. You can probably fold you way to 3rd or 2nd... but is that why we play poker? I would go in with a pp in a 4 way pot... but again it depends of the game at the table, is it tight, is it not... etc etc...

Not a leading question at all, your record suggest you are a much better tournement player than me. Value your opinion :ok

[Penelopeys]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help

Not a leading question at all' date=' your record suggest you are a much better tournement player than me. Value your opinion :ok[/quote'] Well, I am struggling myself at the moment :unsure Seem to bubble... or to leave just when I hit the money... :( ...So great thread to get some new strategy ideas :ok

[voiceofjoe]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help Foolsgold - a bit off topic a know, but are you and Pene using the same photograph viewed from different angles ?? :unsure

[elmcroft]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help

Foolsgold - a bit off topic a know' date=' but are you and Pene using the same photograph viewed from different angles ?? :unsure[/quote'] very funny :rollin :rollin

[Penelopeys]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help

Foolsgold - a bit off topic a know' date=' but are you and Pene using the same photograph viewed from different angles ?? :unsure[/quote'] He he... straight to the gutter... :lol Hey... behave... this is a very good thread :spank :spank ;)

[GaF]

Re: Immediate Post Bubble Strategy Help The inside edge article has been published today on the poker player web site :ok http://www.pokerplayermagazine.co.uk/advancedplay/holdem/1569/playing_the_bubble.html

Playing The Bubble Bubble works Playing the bubble well isn’t just moving up a gear says Lee Munzer. You still have to take into consideration factors like your stack-size, the prize structure and your overall bankroll

By Lee Munzer

November 2006

	When players are just shy of reaching the money we find out who is there to win the tournament and who is just there to survive

The term 'bubble' actually comes from sports and is loosely interpreted as ‘unfortunate last one out’. In the annual, 65-team college basketball tournament conducted in the US, the 66th team on the selection committee’s list is ‘on the bubble’. In poker, playing on the bubble is a unique and critical time in a tournament and in this article we will analyse how your playing strategy should change. CHIP POSITION AND BANKROLL If you discuss playing through the bubble with expert poker player and pro sports handicapper Ted Sevransky, the word ‘bankroll’ comes up frequently. He opines, ‘How you play at bubble time depends entirely upon your relative chip position and your bankroll considerations. If you’re someone that needs to collect cash in the tournament to stay afloat or to give your bankroll a shot in the arm, you’re going to play differently than if you have an ample bankroll and are far more concerned with winning than cashing.’ Ted continues, ‘When I’m well funded and focused on winning, that last level before reaching the money can be my most profitable period in the day. I take chips from the players who get really tight at that time. Their strategy is to go for the money. They know that if they don’t survive, they can’t win. Sure, a player must survive to win, but my objective is to increase my stack size during that period, a time of significantly less risk to me if opponents are folding too many hands. I’ll raise and re-raise with marginal holdings and better. Playing aggressively during the bubble period will enhance your chances of winning the tournament and increase your overall profits.’ STRATEGIES BASED ON STACK SIZE So how does Ted’s bubble time play alter when he sits behind a short stack? ‘If you have a short stack, the bottom line is still your bankroll objective. If the prizes at the low end of the pool are substantial in relationship to your poker or tournament bankroll, then you might choose to play conservatively. If so, you’ll only play premium hands. You won’t look to push things with marginal holdings. You’ll rely on others going bust before you do. That’s the difference between having a deep bankroll that can stand a few swings versus having one that requires some cashes along the way to keep you rolling.’ REACHING THE MONEY What changes after the bubble is burst? According to Ted, ‘once you are in the money, your next goal is to calculate how many chips you’ll need to reach the final table in contention for the win (an average stack or better). Winning the tournament is a step-by-step procedure. First you have to make the money. Then you have to get to the final table. Finally, you have to be the lone survivor at that table. You can’t win a tournament with 60 players left no matter how big your stack size is at that time.’ ‘An interesting phenomenon occurs almost immediately after the money is reached. Play loosens up considerably. Since I like to play against the flow, often I will play conservatively in the aftermath of the first payouts. I’ll focus on opponents who begin pushing their marginal hands and risking bust out. These players often look at the cash they are assured of as found money. They begin to gamble. I’ll give these opponents action when I have good hands, but I won’t gamble. I’ll look at the prize pool list to determine where the value is because prize pool distributions differ percentage wise from one tournament to the next.’ I believe Ted is spot on. As you approach the bubble period, be observant of which players are tightening up. Aside from folding frequently, they may turn to look at the stacks at adjacent tables. Some even wander about eyeballing short stacks. In addition, players who are trying to coast into the money often take inordinate time making decisions (unless play has reached the hand-by-hand stage, a procedure that negates stalling tactics). These coasters are prime candidates to be moved off marginal hands – and even relatively good ones such as A-J and 9-9. Bet into them freely, as you will get them to fold all but premium hands. Even if they possess a strong hand such as A-Q, you can often take them off their holding when they call, but miss the flop. Their top priority is to sneak into the money. Of course, if a coaster bets or calls pre-flop, and big cards appear on the flop, be wary. He or she may have made two pair or top pair with top kicker. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the big-stack players are usually looking to steal from the mediumstack opponents. They generally fear wars with other large stacks and they try to avoid confrontations with very small stacks, knowing the owners may choose to take a stand rather than getting so short that they will have no raising leverage. If a big stack player is pounding almost every pot, I’ll test him with a re-raise. He can’t hold A-K or J-J every hand. While you should be conscious of how your opponents are reacting to the payout structure, never lose sight of playing more aggressively from late position and incorporating your adversaries’ overall tendencies into your bubble strategy. For example, let’s say you are playing in a three-day WSOP event where the bubble period kicks in seven hours into day two. A player has been raising frequently all day. Now, approaching the first payouts and sporting a medium/large stack, he raises a few times. Well, this leopard hasn’t really changed his spots. But, if the same player had been raising infrequently all day, and now begins raising habitually, then he is probably a solid, experienced player who realises opponents will give way as the money comes into play, rather than risk getting hooked into a big hand and busting out with nothing to show for two long days of work. ONLINE MAGNIFICATION During the bubble period, everything seems to happen in an exaggerated fashion when playing online. Aggressive players with deep stacks become hyperaggressive. Small stacks often hit the auto-fold button with regularity. The table bully seems to raise almost every hand. When the bubble is burst, chips enter pots from all directions. A popular online offering is the sit&go tournament. A typical sit&go is played ten-handed with 50% of the prize pool going to the winner, 30% to the runner-up and 20% to the third-place finisher. This type of one-table tournament provides excellent practice for playing short-handed and is useful for improving your bubble time strategy because you will often encounter bubble situations when entering sit&go events. My overall sit&go strategy is to play snugly for the first few levels. I observe my opponents and watch several get knocked out. Of course, if I pick up a good hand, I play it aggressively. Typically, when the fourth level begins, play will be six-handed or seven-handed. I will become more active, especially when in late position. Putting pressure on the blinds becomes more meaningful and lucrative as the blinds accelerate. When I reach the bubble stage, I will evaluate my relative chip count. If possessing a big stack, I’ll bully those that are trying to make the money by coasting. If I’m a short stack, I’ll try to pick up chips with aggressive play. I want my opponents to know that I won’t roll over just to coast into third place on fumes. I will make moves while my stack is still substantial enough to threaten my opponents. Once we are down to three players, I play against the flow of my opponents. If they are tight, I play fast. If my adversaries are aggressive, I set traps for their overbets and pounce when they show any weakness. A TIP FROM THE TOP At the 2006 WSOP, while being besieged by autograph hounds and playing for a $12,000,000 prize, Daniel Negreanu found time during a ten-minute break to summarise bubble play: ‘The bubble is the point in a tournament that basically separates the men from the boys. When players are just shy of reaching the money we find out who is there to win the tournament and who is just there to survive. The top players get really aggressive, while the less experienced guys clam up and play tight. The good players take advantage of the tight players as the bubble approaches.’