GaF Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 The title says it all really!! Will do a little quiz - will put up a selection of random hands from HoH III and your job is to decide what hand you think your opponent(s) have. You can (should!!) assign probabilities to the hands you think, with the total coming out at 100%. If you have the book, no cheating please ;) For example: 70% chance he has Ax with x between Q and 4 (108 combinations) 30% chance he has PP between 44 and 99 (72 combinations) Assuming the board cards are Ad 3c 2s and you hold Ks and Kd For your first option, we can see that there are 3 aces x 36 "rag" cards (4 of each of the 9) = 108 combinations For the second option you have 24 possible first cards x 3 possible matching cards = 72 combinations If you miss then you obviously get 0 points If you were right on option 1, then you get 70 (from percentage) / 108 points (and we'll multiply by 100 so it looks better) = 64.81 points If you were right on option 2, then you get 30 / 72 *100 = 41.67 points You can be as vague or as specific as you like - obviously the more specific you are, the more points you are playing for (and the more likely you are to miss. I will put the answer up quite quickly after the problem, but with white text on a white background (or similar) so you can read it by highlighting it. Test below. Hopefully you cannot see this without highlighting it!!! (not totally invisible, need to find a better solution ;)) I will also put up a scoreboard as answers come in - so please do not read other peoples responses before you reply ;) Problem 1 Blinds $10/$20 Pot $30 Player A $1550 Player B $1950 Player C $870 Player D $1100 Player E $2050 Player F (You) $1650 Player G $1400 Player H (Button) $1280 Small Blind $1450 Big Blind $1700 Situation High Stakes STT Online. A few hands have been played. The table is playing very tight, with a couple of hands folded around to the BB. Your Hand \\\\&\\\\\ >>>>>&>>>> Action Players A to E all fold. You raise $85. Players G and H fold. The SB calls and the BB folds. The Pot is now $190 Flop ££&££ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 Jaded 60% Kx where x is 8 or higher (3 Kings by 16 Kickers up to Q - 48 Combinations) 30% chance pocket 6's or 7's (4 x 6's and 4x 7's still in deck - 12 Combinations) 10% Chance pocket 8's (1 combination) moFace 100% KT (3 x Kings by 4 x T - 12 Combinations) laidbackbloke 50% K with kicker 10 or less, not 4 or 5 (3 x Kings by 24 kickers - 72 COmbinations) 15% Pocket 8's (1 Combination) 15% Pocket 9's (1 Combination) 5% Pocket 6's or 7's (12 Combinbations) msaban 50% Kx where x is 8 or 9 (12 combinations) 25% pp lower than 10 (32 Combinations) 25% Ax where x is lower than K valiant23 50% A9o (6 combinations) 30% AKo (9 combinations) 20% 76s (4 combinations) 68allin 40% k x where x is q or higher (24 combinations - excluding KK as an option) 19% poc 9s (1 combination) 40% pp 10s - qs (18 combinations) 1% 7 2 off suite (16 combinations) 6ooner 50% 95 (6 combinations) 50% 94 (6 combinations) voiceofjoe 60% A6 or A7 (16 combinations) 40% A3 (8 combinations) georgej 75% Kx X>=10 but not K (48 combinations) 9% 55 (3 combinations) 9% 44 (3 combinations) 7% K9 (6 combinations) foolsgold 10% 76s (4 combinations) 40% Kx where x is >=10 but not K (48 combinations) 40% Kx where x is Post Flop The small blind called you, knowing he would be out of position. Although he got a small discount because he already had $10 in the pot, he still had to call $75. Your first job is to start thinking about the hands he might have used to call. Top Players try to be very specific at this stage. You don't want to fall into the habit of thinking "He called, so maybe he has something". Instead you want to narrow his range down to a reasonable group of hands. Here for example he didn't reraise you, so he's probably not holding a big pair or AK. His most likely holdings are the following: -Ax where x is Q or lower, but probably higher than 4 or 5 -Medium Pairs -Low pairs -Hands like KQ,KJ,QJ If you knew a lot about your opponent you could narrow this down a little further. Against a strong, tight-aggressive opponent for instance, you could probably ignore low pairs as a possible hand. Good players don't like playing low pairs out of position against a raiser. But weak players do it all the time. Here we don't know anything, so we'll leave the low pairs on the table for a while. Post Turn The SB called your bet on the flop. That's bad!! The SB however checked the turn, That's Good (unless he's trapping).Now it's time to use this new information to narrow his hand spectrum down further. Lets first see what pairs he could hold: -AA,KK or QQ: Not likely as he only called pre flop -JJ, TT: Possible. These pairs might just call pre flop and would very likely call post flop with just 1 overcard -99, 88: Nines are less likely since you hold a 9 and 8's are even less likely since 2 of them are accounted for -77, 66: Could make both calls -55,44: Might have called pre flop and is now trapping with a set -33, 22: Unlikely pre-flop callers and impossible post-flop callers Of the likely pairs, you're beating 7's and 6's and losing to J's T's 5's and 4's. You're now beating most of the Ax type hands. If he originally called with KQ,KJ or KT you're losing and he won't lay the hand down. But these hands would probably have bet on the flop and/or turn, so they're getting less likely. AK is possible, but even less likely since he didn't raise pre flop. Post River The SB bets into you. You cannot be sure you're not up against slow played KK. You could also be facing A9 and your opponent bet on the end with 2nd pair top kicker. Of course your opponents play is also consistent with having 4's or 5's in the hole and he's now decided to bet on the end because it's his last chance to extract some value. georgej 9/3*100 = 300 pts Tweetypie 20/20*100 = 100 pts msaban 25/32*100 = 78.125 pts moFace 0 Points laidbackbloke 0 Points Jaded 0 Points Valiant23 0 Points 68allin 0 Points 6ooner 0 Points voiceofjoe 0 points Foolsgold 0 points Hajlender 0 points TQM 0 Points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moFace Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 k 10? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 k 10? Just KT? So your read is that he has KT with 100% certainty? Not criticising the read at all - it's just very specific - which is fine if that's your intention..... Why do you exclude KJ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 For example: 70% chance he has Ax with x between Q and 4 (108 combinations) 30% chance he has PP between 44 and 99 (72 combinations) The combinations may be wrong - that's for that combination in that order (I think :unsure) I'll ask someone clever for some help - like Slapdash or Guesswest!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penelopeys Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 King with a low kicker... apart from 4 or 5 Kicker can be 8 or 9 ... he wasn't too sure of his hand before the turn and the river and after the river he is trying to milk his 2 pair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daftpegasus Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 This might just be me but I can't see the my cards and only one of the flop cards (4 spades) on your posting. Edit - can see it all now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 60% Kx where x is 8 or higher 30% chance pocket 6's or 7's 10% chance pocket 8's (Bear in mind I normally struggle to work out what I have, let alone anyone else!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 Can I change? 60% Kx, 10% 8's - just realised there's only 2 8's left in the deck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penelopeys Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 OR... he's got 67 hearts... trying to milk his str8 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 Can I change? 60% Kx' date=' 10% 8's - just realised there's only 2 8's left in the deck.[/quote'] Have edited your post :ok For anyone unsure what I'm looking for in format - it's exactly along the lines of Jaded's post :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laidbackbloke Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 Hard to say without knowing anything about the opponent and i'm too tired to analyse it too much :lol K with kicker of 10 or less (not 4 or 5 but probably K9) 50% Pocket 8's 15% Pocket 9's 10% pocket 6's or 7's 5% 67s (only question is whether they would have called the original raise from the sb - some people will- but the rest fits) 20% The percentages will probably change next time i look at it :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 Slight change of plan, I'll leave this at least till tomorrow night before calculating results for the scoreboard ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msaban Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 50% Kx where x is 8 or 9 25% pp lower than 10 25% Ax where x is lower than K is this right ? might get the hang of it after a couple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68allin Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 just wondering do u just get 2 options(guesses) or as many as u like aslong as it amounts %100? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 50% A9os 30% AKos 20% 67suited :\ Hate these... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 just wondering do u just get 2 options(guesses) or as many as u like aslong as it amounts %100? As many as you like, so long as it amounts to 100% :ok Obviously the more undecided you are, the less points you score...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 Hate these... Me too!!! And if truth be told, I don't do it anywhere near enough whilst playing ...... the thinking behind this thread isn't so much just another quiz .... more to help "train us" (especially me!!!) to think about how our opponents have played the hand and how likely different holdings are for them....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voiceofjoe Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 A 6 or A 7 (prob suited) - 60% A 3 (prob suited) -40% Can't believe hes got a Pocket Pair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68allin Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 40% k x where x is q or higher (18 combinations????) 19% poc 9s (1 combination??? or does it count as 2?? 9c,9d/9d,9c) 40% pp 10s - qs (36 combinations???) 1% 7 2 off suite (12 combinations???) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 A 6 or A 7 (prob suited) - 60% A 3 (prob suited) -40% Can't believe hes got a Pocket Pair Are you giving the same chance to suited as unsuited or do you want to split them up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 9, 2006 Author Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 Hard to say without knowing anything about the opponent and i'm too tired to analyse it too much :lol Only a few hands have been played ;) You dont have much info on your opponents ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moFace Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 lol sorry thought we were just guessing for laugh, as usual i didnt read it properly :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6ooner Posted October 9, 2006 Share Posted October 9, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 From the betting I'd put him on mid pair after the flop (5 or 4) and hitting a second pair with the 9 so either 5 9 or 4 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 If i were him, i'd play like that if... xK75% x >= 10 but not K 55 9% 44 9% K9 7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 10% 6,7 (suited for his straight) 40% K,10 or above 40% K, 9 or below 10% other pocket pair, above 9, mostly likely 10's Don't think the 9's have made his hand at all, but he's convinced they haven't helped you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
x3m Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 60% Kx where x is between 8 and Q 40% A9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Quiet Man Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 60% 88 20% 99 20% 10 10 100% wrong! :lol TQM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voiceofjoe Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 Are you giving the same chance to suited as unsuited or do you want to split them up? Ok - for ease of calculation i'll say ignore the suited bit and just go with the denominations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tweetypie05 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 Re: How well can you read your opponents from betting Patterns? Part 1 of 10 40% Kx 20% A8s or A9s 20% pocket pair 4-9 15% pocket pair 10-Q 5% AA or KK :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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