Developing Systems

[Crouch Potato]

I noticed a couple of football games over the weekend that had a very common scoreline in some form or another. (Either a common scoreline from past H2H or past home/away matches). I noticed a very similar thing earlier this season and had one night I raked in about $1600 from 2 games (odds of 7-1 and 50-1 respectively). In the ensuing weeks though I lost most of this, following games where a similar trend was there (indicating a repeat scoreline) but with odds that probably weren't in my favour. In any event, I wanted to develop a bit of an analysis system where I input previous H2H records, recent home team's home form and away team's away form, giving a significance to each and a ratings strength to each, which is then either added or factored with each other to produce my own probability of the scoreline occuring. However, I don't really have a great knowledge. I could probably figure out something simple, but I believe that this could work if I can find the right biases etc. and thus was wondering if anyone could point me in the direction of any literature etc. that could give me a better understanding of rating systems etc. so I can try and make this work. PS - The two games over the weekend I refer to are Albacete v Real Murcia 0-0 (I think it paid $8.50 on Betfair) and Gimnasia v San Lorenzo 3-2 (Paid $40 on Betfair). The latter in particular had a lot of indication that this scoreline was possible, and at the price of $40, had a very high positive EV. **Analysis here: http://www.soccerway.com/match/primera-division/gimnasia-y-esgrima-de-la-plata/club-atltico-san-lorenzo-de-almagro/390470/ Another example is Manchester United away games. They've won a lot of their past away games by a scoreline of 2-1 in their favour.