-1 Asian Handicap System

[davidc]

Been doing some research with regard to -1 Asian Handicaps and have come up with a system to (hopefully) make some money! I have checked back through over 2600 games from various major leagues around Europe from last season and the current season and my figures suggest that there were approximately 450 of these which may have qualified as -1 AH by using the 1X2 odds range of 1.75 - 1.51 as a basis. I realise that this is not totally scientific and that some of these bets may not have qualified but I have broken the odds down into three different ranges (1.75-1.56, 1.75-1.51 and 1.7-1.56) and the outcome remains similar, within a 3% tolerance. The odds I used were taken from betexplorer. These results gave the following percentages in which the tie is ignored as it produces a no bet scenario: For home 1X2 prices 1.75 - 1.56 HC Loss HC Tie HC Win 130 (59.63%) 65 88 (40.37%) For away 1X2 prices 1.75 - 1.51 HC Loss HC Tie HC Win 23 (37.7%) 19 38 (62.3%) The price ranges above gave the best results and it is these ranges that I intend to use. I realise that the away figures in particular have a relatively small sample size but as this is over a period of around 14 months then it is probably valid. The system therefore will be: For home teams with 1X2 odds 1.75 - 1.56 lay AH -1 for odds lower than 2.21 or back +1 at odds better than 1.8 @ Betfair. For away teams with 1X2 odds 1.75 -1.51 back AH -1 for odds higher than 1.69 or Lay +1 for odds lower than 2.38 @ Betfair. The starting bank will be 1000 points and all bets will be 5 points risk. Most bets will be with Betfair and any prices which I quote will already have commission deducted. The bets will be on major leagues in Europe initially but may be expanded at a later date to include other leagues. Internationals will be ignored by this system. I will be using real money but would advise that anybody following this thread use discretion until there is sufficient history to (hopefully!) prove the theory. Comments and suggestions would be welcome.

[davidc]

Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Just to clarify details from the first post -chamges highlighted in red new details in blue: For home teams with 1X2 odds 1.75 - 1.56 lay AH -1 for odds lower than 2.21 or back away team +1 at odds better than 1.8 @ Betfair. For away teams with 1X2 odds 1.75 -1.51 back AH -1 for odds higher than 1.69 or Lay home team +1 for odds lower than 2.38 @ Betfair. I will mostly be looking to back (rather than lay) as its probably easier in that some of the odds will be available at bookies and it means that you are not waiting until the last minute to have a 'lay' matched at an exchange. The formatting in the 1st post did not come out too well so I've re-done the percentages and hopefully they are a bit clearer - the tie is ignored for these percentages as it produces a no bet scenario. For home 1X2 prices 1.75 - 1.56 Handicap loss: 130 = 59.63% Handicap tie: 65 Handicap win: 88 = 40.37% For away 1X2 prices 1.75 - 1.51 Handicap loss: 23 = 37.7% Handicap tie: 19 Handicap win: 38 = 62.3%